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Given that Democratic Governors and Democratic Legislatures, in New York, are responsible for the bail reform laws that have led to the horrific crime wave in New York City, this race should be quite competitive.
While NY desperately needs change, I have little faith in the people in nyc to vote republican. While most scream that we need change, what they really mean is as long as that does not require voting republican lol .....
Result set indicates a clear oversampling of Democrats.
91% D + 7% R + 37% I = 50% Hochul
yet...
92%R + 8% D + 57% I = 46% Zeldin?
Zeldin gets a higher percent of their party and 20 points higher with Independents...but trails Hochul in total by 4% ??
Yeah, that only happens mathematically if you oversample Democrats.
So I see good news for Zeldin in that poll. The underpolling/skew for Republicans is typically 3-9%, and that poll shows a mad tilt among Independents towards Zeldin.
New York is a lost cause. The voters from that state are typically irrational ideological Marxists, at least from the exposure I've had with them on this forum.
Zeldin gets a higher percent of their party and 20 points higher with Independents...but trails Hochul in total by 4% ??
Yeah, that only happens mathematically if you oversample Democrats.
Completely depends on what you mean by "oversample". If you mean that Democrats represent a larger population in the sample set than Repubs, then perhaps "oversample" is not quite the right word. Oversampling implies that the population of that group in the sample is not equivalent to the population in the broader set. If one starts with a randomized sample, the number of members in a particular group within that sample should be roughly equivalent to the broader population. Basically, if Dems represent a larger percentage of the overall population, then one would expect more dems in a randomized sampling.
Chicken****e witch won’t do debates.
She agreed to one, at the end of the month, on a local cable tv station.
Red flag? No not at all…lol
Zeldin wanted multiple debates.
Completely depends on what you mean by "oversample". If you mean that Democrats represent a larger population in the sample set than Repubs, then perhaps "oversample" is not quite the right word. Oversampling implies that the population of that group in the sample is not equivalent to the population in the broader set. If one starts with a randomized sample, the number of members in a particular group within that sample should be roughly equivalent to the broader population. Basically, if Dems represent a larger percentage of the overall population, then one would expect more dems in a randomized sampling.
You're trying to pick a sample ratio that will match the turnout ratio on election day. These pollsters almost always overestimate Democrat turnout and underestimate Republican turnout. The only time they got it reasonably close to right was for the 2018 midterms, when the Democrats took the House of Representatives and picked up 40-some seats.
Their default algorithms seem to favor the Democrats. We will find out in 3 short weeks.
While NY desperately needs change, I have little faith in the people in nyc to vote republican. While most scream that we need change, what they really mean is as long as that does not require voting republican lol .....
There are hundreds of thousands of people who vote Republican in Brooklyn, Queens and especially Staten Island and that is with almost no support from the Republican party.
And in 2021 elections, the Republicans blew the Democrats out of the water in the suburbs from Long Island to the Hudson Valley and Upstate.
In order for the Republicans to move forward, they need to go further than "we are not as bad as the Democrats". What is needed by the Republicans is not just to complain about the Democrats but a party platform that actually addresses urban and suburban issues instead of just issues for Corporate CEOs and Wyoming cattle ranchers.
If I was a Republican leader, I would be emphasizing that Kathy Hochul was pushing for abolishing local land use zoning by cities and towns, a direct attack on the New York suburbs. Instead, we get crickets.
Result set indicates a clear oversampling of Democrats.
91% D + 7% R + 37% I = 50% Hochul
yet...
92%R + 8% D + 57% I = 46% Zeldin?
Zeldin gets a higher percent of their party and 20 points higher with Independents...but trails Hochul in total by 4% ??
Yeah, that only happens mathematically if you oversample Democrats.
So I see good news for Zeldin in that poll. The underpolling/skew for Republicans is typically 3-9%, and that poll shows a mad tilt among Independents towards Zeldin.
Considering as of the latest voter registration stats NY was 49.8% Dem, 22.2 % GOP, 28.0% Ind/3rd party, if anything this poll under samples Democrats. If turnout was similar to voter registration Hochul would be up about 19.
Now voter registration and voter ID are two different things and of course voter registration doesn't account for turnout dynamics, but typically winning by 20% among Independents isn't enough to win NY let alone make it competitive if they are pulling similar %'s of their own party votes.
Also with that said, the caveat of this just being one poll showing results different from everything else is also at play here.
Will Zeldin do better than the GOP did in 2018 or most statewide races in NY? Likely Yes. Will this be all that tight? Very unlikely. IMHO, this probably is similar to or within a few points of 2014.
If Zeldin comes in and reverses a number of Hochul's and Cuomo's policies, and rulings what not, then I will be pleasantly surprised. If he cant, well its just another 4 typical 4 years, and it wont matter.
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