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Regardless of political affiliation, I am not wrong in saying that majority of us wish good for the country. We saw unprecedented turmoil in global economy due to Covid. Things changed pretty dramatically for everyone and we currently are in a weird phase of combination of inflation and possible recession.
On the other hand, Europe is in shambles and Chinese weakness has come out; companies are slowly moving away from China and their hosing market has collapsed. Russia has shot themselves in the foot by starting the war.
So, what does all this mean for US? IMO US now is more important on a global scale than pre-Covid! We fared badly but our competition fared much worse. Comparatively , it makes us stronger now than before.
So, can we stay at the top for foreseeable future? What would global order look like in 2050?
Until our economy completely collapses from overspending by both the government and those living on credit to maintain their life style in spite of inflation.
Once the bill comes due, the house of cards will fall.
I think so, long term.
A lot of what the OP points out is true, and there are many other factors working in our favor.
Some of them are geographic:
We have the largest plot of arable land in the world. Larger than either Europe or Asia.
We have a temperate climate.
There are 14,000 miles of navigable waterways in America - larger by far than any other country. Tulsa, OK, for example, has a waterway where it can loads goods and ship them off to sea. So does Pittsburgh.
We have enough energy available in North America to provide power for any population that may live here.
During the coming decades there will be a world wide population decline. America is the destination of choice for the vast majority of immigrants. That will change the ethnic makeup of America, but immigrants will remain a driving force within America.
Gradually, says Peter Zeihan, America will lose interest in foreign wars. This will become particularly apparent when both Russia and China fade from the international trade market. It will be a pretty chaotic looking world for a while, but eventually it will settle down as global population decline becomes an accepted part of life on earth.
So, can we stay at the top for foreseeable future? What would global order look like in 2050?
I think the United States will remain the top dog country for a long time to come.
In spite of the changes happening in the world, this is still the most innovative country and where most of the action is. This is still the place people come to live their dreams. China is not.
Very few countries have the vast amounts of land and resources the USA has. Not just the land mass but the quality of what it consists of. You can't count Australia or Canada in the same way. America would be the best if it stopped trying to be the best.
It's not simply a matter of natural resources which is important but not the be-all-end-all (some estimates peg Russia's natural resource supply as being worth 75 trillion, the US's 45 trillion, and China's at 33 trillion). Investments, access to markets, ability to sell your products, ect. The Belt and Roads initiative was a long term infrastructure investment for China which happens to incorporate a third of global trade in its hub.
The United States won't be the only player in the game in the future. You're going to see competing economic centres elsewhere.
Highest GDP? It's just a matter of time until China has a higher GDP than the US. Without importing hundreds of millions of people, it's going to happen.
Highest GDP per capita? We already aren't #1. Liechtenstein, Monaco, Luxembourg, Bermuda, Ireland, Norway, Switzerland, Qatar, and Singapore are all richer than the US.
Highest HDI? Almost all of Western Europe lives better lives than the US
Comparing much smaller countries to US and saying they have higher gdp per capita isn’t particularly useful. Norway has 5 million population while US has 330. US is an anomaly where we have distinctly high GDP per capita despite such a large population.
Conversely china should have higher GDP since they have four times our population.
A top means combination of powerful military, innovation, global influence and overall living standard of the country.
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