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With the GOP taking the majority in the House, Kevin McCarthy is assumed to be the frontrunner for the House. He did win a non-binding vote in the GOP conference over Andy Biggs 188-31. While it was a secret ballot, those who voted for Biggs over McCarthy are thought to be primarily made up of the Freedom Caucus. Biggs has already said he will not vote for McCarthy. Congressman Bob Good has also said McCarthy is not his choice and that McCarthy doesn't have 218 votes.
In order to win the Speakership you do not always need 218 votes, though you do need the majority of members present and who are voting. So if everyone is there and votes for a candidate you will need the 218, if two members aren't there for the vote and two members vote present (431 total votes) 216 would be needed, etc.
So the question is will McCarthy get enough votes to win the Speakership vote? Or will enough Republicans defect (or threaten to defect) to potentially sink his Leadership role? It is not known yet how many can defect for McCarthy could still win. Final margin, and if those who defect, decide to vote for someone else or vote present will determine that.
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