No predictions, but 2024 kinda doesn't look too good so far? (premium, Minnesota)

[moguldreamer]

A survey of 40 prominent macroeconomists yielded the following:

Q1. What is your prediction of real GDP growth in the US economy from 2023Q4 to 2024Q4?

A1:

• Median point estimate of YOY GDP growth is 1.5%;
• The 90th percentile point estimate is 2.6%;
• The 10th percentile point estimate is 1.0%

Q2. What is your prediction for the December 2024 U.S. unemployment rate (i.e., the U3 rate
that will be released in the employment situation report in January 2025)?

A2:

• Median point estimate of YOY GDP growth is 4.2%;
• The 90th percentile point estimate is 4.5%;
• The 10th percentile point estimate is 4.0%

Q3: What is your estimate of the core PCE inflation rate in the 12-month period ending in
December 2024 (i.e. 2023 December to 2024 December)?

A3:

• Median point estimate of YOY GDP growth is 2.7%;
• The 90th percentile point estimate is 3.0%;
• The 10th percentile point estimate is 2.4%

Q4: What is your estimate of the likelihood that core PCE inflation will exceed 3% per annum in
the year ending Dec 2024, i.e. 2023 December/2024 December?

A4:
Very unlikely (less than 10% chance): 13%
Somewhat unlikely (less than 40% chance): 60%
About as likely as not: (between 40% and 60% chance): 25%
Somewhat likely (more than 60% chance): 0%
Very likely (more than 90% chance): 3%

[lewdog_5]

lol ok, very sensitive here.

Political parties don’t determine stock market gains.

Hope that one sticks.

[Florida2014]

Originally Posted by lewdog_5

lol ok, very sensitive here.

Political parties don’t determine stock market gains.

Hope that one sticks.

This is, in fact, the basis of these doom and gloom threads here by certain posters. 100%.

[mathjak107]

the more it’s said markets will do poorly the better they seem to do.

lots of those sitting on the side are falling further and further behind…i smell a lot of late cash flowing in when they finally throw in the towel after the train left the station

[FREE866]

Originally Posted by lewdog_5

lol ok, very sensitive here.

Political parties don’t determine stock market gains.

Hope that one sticks.

Very true. But I've noticed that people really are influenced what the headlines tell them so if for a few days the market goes down ( which is just part of how markets work) and the headlines say "markets down because of fears of Trump/Biden winning " people will attach to that narrative and let it dictate their views and worst case start making investment decisions based on that false narrative. Just watch.

[oneasterisk]

If long term, the markets are up 3 out of 4 years I'm not sure why do people keep betting against it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/long...eir-highs.html

SP & DOW are hitting fresh highs. I'm staying all the way invested and letting my winners win.

I've made money under Democrats and Republicans.

[treasurekidd]

Originally Posted by FREE866

Very true. But I've noticed that people really are influenced what the headlines tell them so if for a few days the market goes down ( which is just part of how markets work) and the headlines say "markets down because of fears of Trump/Biden winning " people will attach to that narrative and let it dictate their views and worst case start making investment decisions based on that false narrative. Just watch.

Yes, fear and greed sell very well these days. If people want to be better investors, they should shut off CNBC, delete the “news” apps of their phones, and spend half the resulting time saved reading annual reports. Take the other half of the time saved and enjoy life while your investments compound.

[BigCityDreamer]

Originally Posted by oneasterisk

If long term, the markets are up 3 out of 4 years I'm not sure why do people keep betting against it:

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/01/25/long...eir-highs.html

SP & DOW are hitting fresh highs. I'm staying all the way invested and letting my winners win.

I've made money under Democrats and Republicans.

There is no reason to believe the stock market won’t go higher over the long term.

It is when people try to make these short term predictions that it becomes much more like gambling.

Might as well try your luck in Vegas.

[oneasterisk]

I hear what you're saying, but today's short term, is tomorrow's long term.

The OP is several years away from traditional retirement age, so not sure why they aren't maximizing the potential. I guessed people do what helps them sleep at night and my threshold is higher because I have a 2 year old. Lol

[moguldreamer]

Originally Posted by lewdog_5

lol ok, very sensitive here.

Political parties don’t determine stock market gains.

Hope that one sticks.

At the same time, everyone agrees the federal government and various state governments can effect economic growth, which in turn affects asset prices.