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Old 06-21-2008, 10:30 AM
 
Location: Thumb of Michigan
4,493 posts, read 7,286,658 times
Reputation: 2538

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Here is a little flashback in history - Great Depression - Top Five Causes of the Great Depression

Anyone can relate some parallels from then to today?!

#5 Midwest floods...
#4 economic policy with china; outrageous dependency...
#3 likewise
#2 Bear Stearns, Countrywide and beyond...
#1 market has been "incrementally" crashing as of late...

Other opinions and/or perceptions?!


A depression coming on??!!

What do you think?
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:37 AM
 
2,262 posts, read 3,629,120 times
Reputation: 382
Quote:
Originally Posted by Blue Grass Fever View Post
Here is a little flashback in history - Great Depression - Top Five Causes of the Great Depression

Anyone can relate some parallels from then to today?!

#5 Midwest floods...
#4 economic policy with china; outrageous dependency...
#3 likewise
#2 Bear Stearns, Countrywide and beyond...
#1 market has been "incrementally" crashing as of late...

Other opinions and/or perceptions?!


A depression coming on??!!

What do you think?
1. There have been no crashes
2. No, this isn't accurate.
3. No, this was in reaction to the stock market crash
4. No
5. As stated in your article the drought wasn't a direct cause
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:39 AM
 
Location: wrong planet
5,156 posts, read 11,122,861 times
Reputation: 4283
I believe the next few years will not be good ones. Even if it is officially isn't a recession, it will feel like one. Rising energy and food cost will make it harder for many to scrape by. I think the stock market will crash within the next couple of years and we will lose more jobs due to the housing market, companies cutting back due to reduced consumer spending etc.

Things don't look so rosy for the next few years.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:39 AM
 
Location: South Side
7,484 posts, read 11,180,809 times
Reputation: 4164
Well there was also:

1. Dustbowl crop failure

2. Wall Street securities market unregulated where bears using options could run down a stock's value.

3. World-wide economic malaise.

4. Low education levels in the US.

5. Government flat-footedness as to early measures of relieving problems.

6. Great instability in our banking system due to lax regulation and no FDIC.

So, I don't see another Depression on the horizon. Parenthetically, if there was no socialist revolution in this country during the Depression, there never will be.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:45 AM
 
Location: Charlotte, NC (in my mind)
7,946 posts, read 16,730,207 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Manigault View Post
Well there was also:
2. Wall Street securities market unregulated where bears using options could
Sounds like oil today. If anything drives us into another great depression, it wont be the housing market or the Dow Jones, it will be these gas prices.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:56 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,055 posts, read 12,596,349 times
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This economic crash could be worse than the GD is some ways. Three of them that immediately come to mind:

Possible hyperinflationary pressure, actually worse than a depression. At least in a depression, cash is precious due to credit contraction so those who stuffed under the mattress or have some liquid assets around are ok. When children start playing with cash, people throw it in the garbage, burn it to keep warm, or sweep the streets littered with it, you'll know there's a problem.

Less "rugged individualism". Look at Katrina. Look at the looting, the begging for government handouts. Look at people stealing gas by actually drilling gas tanks. Pump and run thieves.

More "undocumented guests". Potential crime bubble. Now that they'll be largely out of work because the national real estate scam is over, will they leave or turn to a life of crime? Or, if they take the service jobs Americans "won't do", will Americans turn to crime to feed their family?

I don't think any of these scenarios are kooky in the least, and it won't mean the world is ending. It'll just feel like it's ending for many.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:57 AM
 
Location: South Side
7,484 posts, read 11,180,809 times
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When you short sell with the market going down, the price of stocks are forced lower and lower. Today, short sales are only legal only on the uptick. So there are major differences.

See? Sometimes regulation helps.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:59 AM
 
48,504 posts, read 94,048,696 times
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Wel;considering the housing crash and the prices of oil;I thnik we are doing pretty well now.Eeven loking inflation and unemployment it isn't nearly as bad as in the 70's. I thnik overall it just shows the strength of the free market.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:59 AM
 
Location: South Side
7,484 posts, read 11,180,809 times
Reputation: 4164
Quote:
Originally Posted by ViewFromThePeak View Post
More "undocumented guests". Potential crime bubble. Now that they'll be largely out of work because the national real estate scam is over, will they leave or turn to a life of crime?
That's more like a pressure relief valve. In strained times there would be fewer jobs, more stringent curbs on immigration and the undocumenteds would leave.
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Old 06-21-2008, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Raleigh, NC
9,055 posts, read 12,596,349 times
Reputation: 1396
Quote:
Originally Posted by Manigault View Post
When you short sell with the market going down, the price of stocks are forced lower and lower. Today, short sales are only legal only on the uptick. So there are major differences.

See? Sometimes regulation helps.
Short selling mitigates hyped up bull markets. If you restrict short selilng, you limit investing and encourage greater boom/bust cycles. People just find another market to short and thus skirt the SEC. Part of the reason I don't invest in US stocks anymore. Too many rules.

FDIC actually hurts the banking industry, as did the New Deal. It encourages further risk by banks with Uncle Sam ready to bail them out, and stupifies people into not having to think about where they put their money.
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