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Originally Posted by mofford
If something has to be cut to keep spending in check, let it be defense. Ultimately, our economy at home is more important than the fate of Iraq.
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Actually, your entire economy, even the fate of your country hinges on Iraq.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mofford
Just pull the damn plug, and divert 50,000 troops to Afghanistan/Pakistan and send the rest back home. If it takes a complete withdrawl from the whole of the middle east and the end of foreign aid, to bring the budget into balance, so be it. Better that than going belly up into a great depression or total devaluation of the dollar.
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You have it backwards. A complete withdraw from the Middle East will result in the US going belly up, and you won't see a balanced budget for the rest of natural life, which might not be too long, because of a "Great Depression and total "devaluation" of the dollar.
$1 = 0.68 Euros and $1 = 2.52 Romanian Lei.
Can you explain in your own words, without cutting and pasting from Pukipedia, why the Euro has a greater value than the US Dollar, but the US Dollar has a greater value than the Romanian Lei?
To keep you from wasting your time, it has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve, or gold, or Democrats, or Republicans, or the "housing crisis," or bank failures, or bail outs.
If you can answer that question, then you can explain why, assuming the current circumstances don't change (ie the US does not go to war with Russia), will the Euro have a greater value than the US Dollar for the rest of your life?
Again, it has nothing to do with the Federal Reserve, or gold, or Democrats, or Republicans, or the "housing crisis," or bank failures, or bail outs.
You should be able to answer that one with a single word, especially since I gave you the answer.
And now I'll show you what separates the intelligent people from those who are not intelligent.
In 1995, oil and natural gas (and lots of minerals) were discovered in the five countries comprising Central Asia. The amount of oil and natural gas is estimated to be 3 to 5 times the amount in the Middle East.
On the top of that, it's mostly light sweet crude oil and light sweet intermediate crude oil.
After getting the pipelines in, they started with the oil wells and feeder pipelines, and current production is about 1.5 Million barrels per day.
What will their production be 20 years from now?
Not 1.5 Million barrels per day. Over the next 20 years, they'll build about 30,000 oil wells and bring production up to 5-6 Million barrels per day.
That's good because US production will be 1 Million barrels per day less, and so will Norway, Saudi Arabia and a few other countries, plus Syria will be done, and so will Romania and a few other countries, and on top of that, 2 more countries will become net importers before 2012, and 7 will between 2012 and 2015 (including Iran).
So, the world will need that oil.
If Russia controls Central Asia, in which currency will Russia sell the oil and natural gas on the world market?
If you said US Dollars, you're wrong. Russia no longer buys or sells anything on the world market in US Dollars, and neither do nearly 100 other countries (that's another hint to the answer to one of the previous questions).
What if China gains control of Central Asia? In which currency will they sell the oil and natural gas on the world market?
Not US Dollars.
And what would happen to the US Dollar? If you answered the previous questions correctly, it will "devaluate."
There's a "housing crisis" and a "banking crisis" and a bail out, and none of those things concern you, because Cost Inflation will still be eroding disposable income of Americans and it will eventually lead to a recession (a "when" not "if" thing).
Imagine the US Dollar losing even more value because of lesser demand on the world market and greater demand for other currencies, like the Euro, Ruble, and Yuan.
If the US went into a recession/depression, it would never recover. The worst part of the Great Depression was 1931 when the GPD dropped 48% in a matter of months. It took 7 years to get back to where it started, and the
only reason it did is because of WW II. Had WW II not started, it would have continued on through the end of the 1940s.
If that happened now, the GDP would drop from $14 Trillion to about $7 Trillion.
That would be about 40 Million jobs, gone, permanently, and barring a world war, it would last 12 to 15 years, and it wouldn't actually recover, rather people would just get used to having a GDP of about $9 Trillion annually and you would still have Cost Inflation, unless the US abandoned its currency.
That's why the US is in Iraq, so it can maintain some sort of influence in the region, and at least some in Central Asia. Once the US decides what it wants to do with Iran/Pakistan so that it has road, rail and air access to Central Asia from the Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea, it can exert more influence in Central Asia and have a chance to control the oil and natural gas there.
If the US leaves now, it may never get back in. There might not even be an Iraq 20 years from now, and the US will have a difficult maneuvering around the Chinese carrier battle groups in Persian Gulf/Arabian Sea (they already have a naval base in Baluchistan)
Iraq is instrumental in safeguarding your future and that of your children.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mofford
How safe will the world be with a total US economic collapse?
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A lot safer than it is now. Better, too, as the standard of living in the developing world would increase greatly, especially since Americans would not longer be hogging the world's resources.
Quote:
Originally Posted by mofford
Lets work at a feverish pace to get off oil, thats how you destroy the power of our enemies.
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That's very short sighted. What you would do is enrich them at your expense.
Even if you never touched a drop of oil again (not possible) you would still need to control Central Asia to ensure the oil and natural gas is sold in US Dollars to prevent the destruction of your economy and life style.
Personally, I liked the life-style of the 1960s and I'd go back in a heartbeat.
There is one good thing about your plan: You won't need a national health care plan.
You want to cut foreign oil like Tia Juana Light from Venezuela, Bonny Light from Nigeria, Arab 35, Arab 37 and others, well, a lot of people are going to die.
All of your pharmaceuticals contain petro-chemicals made exclusively from light oil. Those petro-chemicals cannot be made from Illinois Intermediate, West Texas Intermediate, Mid-Texas Sour, California Heavy or any other heavy oils in the US or Canada.
With imported light oil, people with Type II Diabetes, and heart/high blood pressure problems would all die in their mid-40s to mid-60s.
That would be a good thing. It would save money for Medicare, Social Security, drop health care costs drastically, and eliminate a lot of workers from the workforce.