The Wilder Effect (McCain, generations, polls, racism)

[PreAristotle]

Now, before you take the short amount of time it takes to throw links at me of OTHER people's opinions, please take the time to read this and establish your own. I've read the links previously posted in certain threads and have taken some, if not most, into account.

The Wilder Effect:

A gap between how black candidates polled and how performed.

So the issue is, will history repeat itself? The main concern with the 1982 election was the fact that many didn't want to say they weren't voting for the black candidate, Bradley, simply because they didn't want to seem racist, seeing as being racist has been socially unacceptable since about the 50's (and with good reason).

So what do you think? If anything at all. Have times changed since then? Explain your reason with educated answers, not racist remarks on either sides please Voter turnout? Significantly different, or not much?

As for me:

I really could see history repeating itself. A lot of people even deny there ever being a Wilder Effect, which could be argued either way really. I believe there was one and I think it was quite clear. Some things many people have to remember is 1] not everyone is honest when polled 2] most polls take place in large, urban cities which usually lean liberal and 3] racism isn't completely gone on either side, we still hear about it quite often.

As for who will vote what. Really, I don't think the young vote is going to be significally higher than last election. Higher? Yes, but not as much as some are predicting. Youth has a habit of polling and saying they are going to vote, then proving to be a disappointment.

As for the black and minority vote, I think it has become rather clear that there will be a greater turn out, which has already been shown in some states. Yet with this will be a greater white turn out, as sad as it is to say. Obama will bring out people who support him based on one thing, as will he bring out people against him for the same issue.

As for which age group, I think the youth will vote for Obama, clearly. The youth tend to be more open minded to the idea of a black man or female being elected (more so a black man). But the older generations? I don't think they will be a generous with their votes.

It also depends on where a person looks. Sure, cities and certain states are clearly going to be liberal, but I think polls fail to fully cover a lot of states, not realizing that a lot of votes stem from rural areas, which tend to be extremely less open minded than urban areas. And then there are the troop's votes, which usually stem towards Republicans as well.

Then you have the south. I, for one, have never met people as racist as many of those in the south. I live in the Midwest and even the people here aren't that bad. It's rather sad when I went to a high school where blacks and whites were completely separated and refused to have any contact with one another (this only being a few years ago).

So really, with McCain already picking up ground in the election, I just hope people don't get too big headed over Obama's chance to win. Obama, himself, is already preparing for a victory and while it is possible, people have to remember that a] this isn't the first time a Republican has been trailing and won it in the end and b] John McCain is the last person to give up.

You have to give McCain credit, I think he truly has done good with his strategy this season. He hasn't been overly aggressive, as many people think he is, which is good. He shouldn't be because then he'd just be attacked for being a rash, and too bold of a man. He's picked up Palin who really was an EXCELLENT choice for his ticket, bar none. Both have little to no dirt in their history, none that is of significance at least. Though a lot of people say they "don't like" her or that she is "evil", they clearly so their lack of acceptance of a female VP and are no better than the people who are unwilling to vote for Obama simply because he is a black man.

I'm not trying to preach for McCain, I'm really not. I just would like to see people's opinions on these issues and really explain what they think the turnout will TRULY be for the election.

I DONT WANT TO HEAR WHAT THE MEDIA THINKS IT WILL BE BECAUSE I CAN JUST TURN ON THE TV FOR THAT.

[saganista]

For one thing, it's pretty desperate if McCainers are down to appealling to racism. For another, you obviously have no clue as to how polls are conducted. For a third, you could have checked how the actual vote totals compared to polling numbers for Obama and hundreds of other candidates of color in recent elections.