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mac and I don't always agree but on both his points here we are simpatico. Ahmadinijad just lost his biggest "boogey man". His hold on power had a strong connection to his ability to convince the populace that "the great Satan" is coming! I'm not sure if the correct term for Bush/Ahmadinijad relationship is dichotomy or symbiosis. Either way one likely can't survive without the other.
International politics/relations is a needed topic. So is "going green".
The pres in Iran isn't first in command. not that he doesn't have any power, but nothing fundamental will change regardless of who the current president is. There would have to be much more systematic change for that.
Change is possible because Islam is not a hierarchical religion. When the current ruling council dies will there actually be a new group to replace them? Will it be a reactionary as the current set?
The Iranian's still have Israel and Saudi Arabia as boogymen.
Last edited by GregW; 01-22-2009 at 10:19 AM..
Reason: added line of text
It is just a speculation. People see what they want to see. We in west understand little about internal Iranian politics and what keeps this country ticking.
If Ahmadinejad continues his old ways, and Obama succeeds in gaining greater respect for America in the minds of Iranians with his inclusive (as opposed to Bush's alienating) policies, he will likely be taken off by the republic for the next election. So, I do see the possibility.
That doesn't guarantee good times in the region however, regardless of who is the President there. For that, how America maintains it relationship with Israel and with Arab nations will be key, which is also the key to America's fight with terrorism (something that Bush never got).
PS. I support the idea of "International Politics" sub-forum.
"If the Iranian president does fall in June, his possible successor is Mohammed Khatami, a liberal cleric. Mr Khatami, who served as Iran's first reformist president between 1997 and 2005, remains extremely popular, despite achieving very little while in office."
What people fail to understand that the Iranians have internal struggles which are hidden from us. These underwater currents shape the leadership more than how America relates to Iran. As a matter of fact, since 1979, Iranian leaders traditionally show little concern about what the world thinks. They carried an 8 year bloody war with Saddam, sacrificed half million lives and have open confrontation with the Saudis and other neighboring Sunni regimes.
To think that there will be essential policy changes following the election of a new US president is laughable. If Ahmadinejad will go home it will only be because of domestic politics.
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