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Old 03-22-2007, 02:18 PM
 
Location: Topeka, KS
1,560 posts, read 7,147,385 times
Reputation: 513

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Quote:
Originally Posted by pslOldTimer View Post
And, I already stated that proof is most likely impossible given the newness of hybrids. I have provided empirical evidence, which is more than anyone else has done. You also cannot prove my supposition is without merit. I win based on my empirical evidence.

I disagree.

Hybrid aren't exactly new. The Prius has been for sale in Japan for a decade, and here in the US since 2001. The Honda Insight went on sale in the US in 1999. There should be data available on battery and vehicle life. The fact that the manufactures aren't running out to yell how good their products are, should be a stong indicator. Also if battery life were that good their waranties would be longer. I suspect that their 80 - 100,000 mile waranty is right about the 60% of their best estimates for battery life.
"Toyota's own tests have run batteries for the equivalent of 150,000 miles with no discernible degradation, and the company expects them to last the useful life of the car."
from http://www.treehugger.com/files/2005...we_be_wo_1.php

The above quote seems to cast doubt on your earlier claim of 200+ miles with no degredation.

I believe what you have offered so far is in fact not emperical evidence, but anecdotal evidence.

emperical - originating in or based on observation or experience
Anecdotal - based on or consisting of reports or observations of usually unscientific observers

(Kudo's to www.m-w.com for definitions....)
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Old 03-22-2007, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Heartland Florida
9,324 posts, read 26,754,889 times
Reputation: 5038
I like my Diesel Mercedes that runs on oil from the fish buffet. Cheap too!
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Old 03-22-2007, 02:26 PM
 
Location: Port St. Lucie and Okeechobee, FL
1,307 posts, read 5,505,360 times
Reputation: 1116
JBrown, I fully understand the methodologies of projecting reliability. They are not proof. They have been, and will continue to be, often wrong.

GoPadge, I fully understand the difference between proof and empirical evidence. Also, given that the empirical evidence I offered was in the form of anecdotal presentation, it could be called anecdotal. If I had access to the maintenance records of New York Taxi companies, I could prove (or disprove) my suppositions.

The fact remains that regardless of whether it is proof positive, empirical observation or anecdotal evidence, I have offered more support for my supposition than the article in question. THAT is what is under discussion, and I stand by my statements.
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Old 03-22-2007, 02:42 PM
 
Location: Port St. Lucie and Okeechobee, FL
1,307 posts, read 5,505,360 times
Reputation: 1116
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPadge View Post
suspect that their 80 - 100,000 mile waranty is right about the 60% of their best estimates for battery life.
So, following that same logic, you would expect the 36,000 mile warranty of the Hummer H2 to indicate a lifespan of 60,000 miles?

Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPadge View Post
"Toyota's own tests have run batteries for the equivalent of 150,000 miles with no discernible degradation, and the company expects them to last the useful life of the car."
The above quote seems to cast doubt on your earlier claim of 200+ miles with no degredation.
How so? The quote does not state that the battery began to degrade at 150,000 miles and in fact, suggests that the batter will last as long as the car -- and Toyotas are known to last longer than most other cars. It's very possible that the useful life will be at least 200,000 miles, as was suggested by the article about the NY taxis. That was my original supposition -- while I feel the Prius will last much longer than the Hummer, I offered a reasonable compromise that both would last 200,000 miles, and suggested that as a much more reasonable assumption than the biased and slanted figures used in the original article.
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Old 03-22-2007, 02:43 PM
 
Location: Topeka, KS
1,560 posts, read 7,147,385 times
Reputation: 513
pslOldTimer ,

And I respectfully disagree. The support for the article is in the links I posted to CNW's report. I would post it here, but at 15 MB and 400+ pages, it is a bit of a bandwidth hog.
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Old 03-22-2007, 02:46 PM
 
Location: Topeka, KS
1,560 posts, read 7,147,385 times
Reputation: 513
Oh I don't doubt that baring accidents, both vehicles could be made to run indefinately. Cuba's vehicle fleet from the 1950's is a prime example of the ICE's ability to run for a million of miles. It's the cost that is debatable, both the overall cost associated with the individual vehicle from cradle to grave, and the cost to individual owners.
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Old 03-22-2007, 03:02 PM
 
Location: Port St. Lucie and Okeechobee, FL
1,307 posts, read 5,505,360 times
Reputation: 1116
Quote:
Originally Posted by JBrown View Post
Let's pretend I claim that I can flap my arms and fly only when no one can see me etc. "You would have to prove my supposition wrong to conclude it has no merit," Is that how science is done these days ?? If something can't be proven wrong it is likely to be true ?? Must the new Al Gore school of thinking.
Despite your flippancy about Mr. Gore, that is entirely correct. We are not talking about science but logic. If I have not seen you flap ypour wings and fly, not have I seen you flap your wings and fail to fly, I cannot declare it with or without merit. If I want to state that your claim is without merit, I have to prove that you did not fly. Whether or not you can actually fly is another matter altogether. What is under discussion would be my claim that you did not fly.

If I say that your claim has no merit without proving my statement, what happens if you actually did flap your arms and fly, and can prove it? My statement would be wrong. If I could prove my statement, there would be no way it could be wrong. That is logic, which is a formal science with axioms that can be proven.

For example, if you can fly, then my statement that you cannot must be wrong. If you cannot fly, my statement must be correct. Therefore, in the absence of proof from you, I must prove that you cannot fly.

I can suppose that you cannot fly and challenge you to prove it, but I cannot state that your claim is without merit unless I prove it.

You see, we have countering claims. You say you can fly, and I say you cannot. Neither of us establishes anything unless the other offers proof.

However -- and here is where it applies to the current discussion -- in the absence of proof on either side, deductive logic takes the place of formal logic. I have logically deduced that if the useful life of the Prius is 60% longer than the warranty, then the same equation must apply to the Hummer, and the Hummer would therefore have a useful life of 60,000 miles. The article stated it was 300,000 miles. The article, therefore, must be wrong.

End of discussion. There are any number of ways I can arrive at the same point. The simple fact is that the article offered lifespans that run counter to logic, and my conclusion is they did so in order to make their own supposition appear correct.

If the proof is to go to the original theory, it must therefore be presented by the writers of the article, and they did not offer such. Under your idea of "Al Gore Science", I am under no more obligation to prove my statements than you are to prove your claim of no merit. Once again, you can't have it both ways.

This is an argument I cannot lose.
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Old 03-22-2007, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Port St. Lucie and Okeechobee, FL
1,307 posts, read 5,505,360 times
Reputation: 1116
Quote:
Originally Posted by GoPadge View Post
pslOldTimer ,

And I respectfully disagree. The support for the article is in the links I posted to CNW's report. I would post it here, but at 15 MB and 400+ pages, it is a bit of a bandwidth hog.
I don't care if it's 4,000 pages; you chose the pertinent quote from it, and that quote supports my claims -- or, at least, does not disprove them.

I just followed all of the links included in your link, and the original article is glowing praise for the hybrid. (They are also nowhere near the size you indicated, but I can't quote them here in their entirety because of copywrite rules).

Someone has poor reading comprehension skills. The original article used the tests from Toyota to indicate the positive life span of the battery -- AT LEAST 150,000 miles, and possibly as long as the useful life of the vehicle. It is obvious to anyone with basic reading comprehension skills that Toyota believes the useful life will be BEYOND 150,000 miles. The hilarious thing is that these articles and blogs actully SUPPORT my statements about the lifespan of the Prius.

I don't think I have to comment any further...
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Old 03-22-2007, 03:42 PM
 
Location: Small patch of terra firma
1,281 posts, read 2,367,855 times
Reputation: 550
“This plant has caused so much environmental damage to the surrounding environment that NASA has used the ‘dead zone’ around the plant to test moon rovers. “

This statement from the opinion piece certainly is slanted and misleading. Any research can tell you that NASA was looking at the Sudbury Structure, which was believed to have been caused by a meteorite impact, which is why they tested rovers there. Much like they did lunar testing at the impact crater in Arizona. So was the nickel plant responsible for the possible meteorite impact crater that NASA used to test lunar rovers?

“The Prius costs an average of $3.25 per mile driven over a lifetime of 100,000 miles - the expected lifespan of the Hybrid.
The Hummer, on the other hand, costs a more fiscal $1.95 per mile to put on the road over an expected lifetime of 300,000 miles. That means the Hummer will last three times longer than a Prius and use less combined energy doing it.”


This is the most obvious slant. This is strictly based on an ASSUMPTION of the “expected” lifetime. You can slant that any way you want when you use “expected”. Since both cars have been out, why not give the actual cost and use actual comparisons. Also, give me the information on the plants that produce materials for both vehicles and not on the one you intend to slam. Make the comparison based on 100k for both cars. If you want to say that is the “expected” lifetime of the vehicle, where are you getting that information from?
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Old 03-22-2007, 03:48 PM
 
Location: Topeka, KS
1,560 posts, read 7,147,385 times
Reputation: 513
Well actually you're falling to the same fallacy that you accused chloedog of missing. In regards to the Prius we were explicitly referring to the battery life and warranty and not the entire vehicle. Where the Hummer's warranty is was 60,000 miles. (Now 100,000. It's a freaking technological miracle. Or a marketing ploy.)

Again I offer a quote from the report.
[indent]Finally, the “Estimated Life in Miles” is based on historical data as well as manufacturer information and real-world life-cycle information that average the miles over comparable historic models as well as a CNW analysis of repair and replacement as well as scrappage records. In effect, the miles figure here is a realistic approximation of the likely life-cycle of the individual models.[/quote]

Until someone releases raw data on life-cycles for both the Prius and the H2 we will not be able to determine whether those figures are accurate. But since this is the second year for the report to be release, my guess is that manufacturers would be tripping over themselves to provide mileage records if they were grossly off.

I will grant that in the case of the Hummer and the Prius, it doesn't take a big change if mileage for the two switch places.
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