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Old 04-20-2009, 11:29 AM
 
Location: Southeast
4,301 posts, read 7,014,920 times
Reputation: 1464

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
The list of losers/gainers is 12 electoral votes. In the 2008 election, the score was Obama/365 versus McCain/173. If we take 12 electoral votes from Obama and add them to McCain, the numbers would be Obama/353 versus McCain/185. Still a landslide.
You missed the point. Ask Al Gore if 12 electoral votes matters.. It was 277/266, so in that context 12 is a big number.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oerdin View Post
I guess hope springs eternal but the reality is those Northerners aren't dying and instead they're just moving to where the weather is better. Do you think they will magically change their entire world view when they move? What we're seeing is a demographic shift in traditionally red states which will mean they will become bluer and bluer much like we recently saw in places like Virginia and North Carolina.
So what you are saying is, someone is going to give up their large home and high salary, just for the weather..? Sorry, but I have a difficult time believing that.

And there is not 'magic' to it, middle class families typically vote Republican, and they are the ones who left the Northeast in droves. I do not see Virginia or North Carolina becoming bluer, as 2008 was a very different year due to widespread frustration with the Bush administration, and the emotional and rhetorical characteristics of Obama.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Oerdin View Post
The good news is this will eventually discredit the current crop of idiots in charge and eventually some new more pragmatic leadership will arrive to reform the party and make it relevant again. This is unlikely to happen before 2014 or 2016 though and only then if the GOP actually starts coming up with real solutions instead of offering more of the same failed policies.
Partisanship aside, the next cycle of Republican leadership is rolling around, and there are a lot of young bloods that may be running for office in the coming years. Political parties, especially the GOP, have a tendency to bounce back rather quickly. In the past, the GOP has been able to recover from catastrophe in just a few short years, while the Democrats seem to take much longer.

An example is post-Watergate. It was said that Republicans would never again be in a position of power in the US government, a few years later came about a dual Republican landslide. In 1992 it was also said the Republicans would never recover from Clinton's victory, yet still took control of Congress in 1994. On the other hand, the Democrats typically lacks party cohesion when they are not in power, and it usually results in incompetent candidates (Mondale, Dukakis, Kerry, perhaps Gore?).

Either way, most Americans are not as partisan as we play them out to be on this forum....
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Old 01-22-2010, 09:53 AM
 
9,873 posts, read 10,782,163 times
Reputation: 3108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Oerdin View Post
The GOP can return but right now it shows no sign of doing anything which will help it return. First and foremost if the GOP wants to win elections then it needs to change its positions to ones which appeal to the majority of Americans because you just can't win when you totally **** off 50%-60% of the American people. What the GOP needs to do is 1) ditch its current leadership because they've utterly failed but no one has lost their job; they're like herpes you just can't get rid of them. 2) they need to move back towards the center and give up the stupid idea that if the GOP just becomes more extreme right that they will magically win. The reality is the more extreme you become the narrower your base of support becomes and the more you alienate everyone else (the centrists who make up the majority of American voters). 3) Right now the GOP is basically a Southern regional party and it is very hard to win a national election as a regional party. This is why the GOP lost New England, the midwest, and most of the west so if you want to start winning national elections you must change your platform so that it appeals to voters in those areas.

That's honest nonpartisan advice.
Well looks like Scott Brown just proved this whole post wrong!!
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Old 01-22-2010, 10:29 AM
 
Location: Gone
25,231 posts, read 16,866,941 times
Reputation: 5932
Quote:
Originally Posted by silas777 View Post
Well looks like Scott Brown just proved this whole post wrong!!
One elction proves nothing and if you believe Brown will be a hard core Republican you are in for an ugly surprise, heck I doubt it will be long before some righties label him as a RINO.
Casper
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Old 01-22-2010, 03:52 PM
 
9,873 posts, read 10,782,163 times
Reputation: 3108
Quote:
Originally Posted by Casper in Dallas View Post
One elction proves nothing and if you believe Brown will be a hard core Republican you are in for an ugly surprise, heck I doubt it will be long before some righties label him as a RINO.
Casper
You keep telling yourself that, and I will keep telling myself how great it is to have Ted Kennedy's chair over on the Republican side of the aisle. I will take a RINO over a Jackass any day!
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Old 01-22-2010, 03:54 PM
 
Location: Great State of Texas
86,052 posts, read 84,193,087 times
Reputation: 27718
I hope to see the rise of a new third party. It's happened before in US History..it can happen again with us, the voters. We can change things if we try hard enough and join together.

Let's turn that chant around so it's our chant..."Yes we can" (bring a new party into power).
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Old 01-22-2010, 04:49 PM
 
24,360 posts, read 22,926,415 times
Reputation: 14937
People seem to be making the mistake of just looking at electoral numbers, congressional seats and red state/ blue states. You have to look at the VOTERS. Gerrymandering districts and representatives won't make or break an election for either party. If the voters get angry and see their party isn't doing its job, they won't vote for them, period. And independants are the deciding factor, always. Massachusetts proves this.
If the republicans make a comeback in 2010 it will be because the voters have seen that the democrats just aren't getting the job done. Just like in 2008 they tossed out the republicans for the same reason.
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Old 01-22-2010, 06:54 PM
 
9,873 posts, read 10,782,163 times
Reputation: 3108
Quote:
Originally Posted by HappyTexan View Post
I hope to see the rise of a new third party. It's happened before in US History..it can happen again with us, the voters. We can change things if we try hard enough and join together.

Let's turn that chant around so it's our chant..."Yes we can" (bring a new party into power).
No.................. it is not going to happen we have a 2 party system , thats the way it has always been and always will be.
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Old 01-22-2010, 10:11 PM
 
Location: Jonquil City (aka Smyrna) Georgia- by Atlanta
16,259 posts, read 24,681,469 times
Reputation: 3587
Quote:
Originally Posted by Frankie117 View Post
For years now, it has been often preached that the Democrats have a strong demographic advantage that threatens the Republican chances at the presidency for years to come. However, traditionally Democratic states are predicted to lose electoral votes to hardcore Republican states in the South and West.

Southern states to gain seats after 2010 census - Washington Times

And so nobody whines about the source (someone always does), here is an interesting presentation on the subject:

http://www.brookings.edu/Metro/20050505_Frey.pdf (broken link)

And please refer to the population statistics here:

Census estimates point to end of Sun Belt's population boom - USATODAY.com

The South and West are gaining more and more political power, whilst the Rust Belt and Northeast post more losses. And to those of you who feel that a few electoral points every 10 years does not matter, keep in mind that Al Gore only lost the EC by a few points. By 2030 most of the political power in the US will have shifted to the Republican states, and away from the Democrats.

Keep in mind that the Northeast and Rust Belt is not losing population, the growth is just at a sluggish ~2% compared to the Sunbelt's ~12%.

Enter the census debate; it is expected that Obama will try and change the way the census is taken. Instead of using an actual headcount, representative samples will be taken. Of course, that has not been enacted yet, but most of us here remember when Clinton tried to impose the same thing...

Anyway, if you skipped the article here is a summary of the predicated changes:

Biggest Winners:

Arizona (2)
Florida (1)
Georgia (1)
Nevada (1)
Oregon (1)
South Carolina (1)
Texas (4)
Utah (1)

Projected Losers:
Illinois (-1)
Iowa (-1)
Louisiana (-1)
Massachusetts (-1)
Michigan (-1)
Minnesota (-1)
Missouri (-1)
New Jersey (-1)
New York (-1)
Ohio (-2)
Pennsylvania (-1)

After taking significant hits, the Republican party tends to rebound via a landslide, so we'll have to see what 2010 and 2012 brings. And with the red states predicted to gain more electoral votes over the next 20 years, it could actually prove that demographics are on the Republicans' side.
I sure as hell don't want them back. The Republicans should never be trusted with power again. As for the sunbelt states, don't assume they will be red forever. I predict that North Carolina and Georgia will be blue in the near future and that, if immigration is passed and the Mexicans get the vote, Texas and Arizona may soon follow. The country is becoming less white male and that is not in favour of the Republicans unless they come off that extreme right wing crap.
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Old 01-22-2010, 10:56 PM
 
8,762 posts, read 11,545,160 times
Reputation: 3398
They won't come back in 2010 or 2012. If we are really lucky, they won't come back at all.
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Old 01-23-2010, 08:56 AM
 
Location: Tennessee
37,752 posts, read 40,828,546 times
Reputation: 62026
Quote:
Originally Posted by nvxplorer View Post
The premise seems a bit fallacious. Just because someone may move his family from Chicago to Dallas, for example, does not mean he automatically becomes a Republican.
Yeah, I can't convince people we should put up a fence and then it will be too late.
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