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Old 04-28-2009, 03:07 PM
 
Location: Marshall-Shadeland, Pittsburgh, PA
32,602 posts, read 77,235,199 times
Reputation: 19066

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As a Pennsylvanian Democrat I can safely say that our state is no longer the "swing state" we once were. Many communities here in the Scranton/Wilkes-Barre area voted 65/35 in favor of President Obama in November 2008, and without a doubt even we were outdone by Philadelphia and its suburbs. 200,000 registered Republicans switched parties to vote in the Democratic primary in 2008, and many never returned to the party. As a moderate I typically vote in a 60/40 split on Election Day with one or two more Democrats than Republicans because, as several others have pointed out, it is becoming more and more apparent that the Christian fundamentalists have infiltrated the Republican party to the point where it is now increasingly difficult to claim you are a "centrist Republican" without having people laugh at you. As a strong fiscal conservative I'm by no means a fan of these constant stimulus packages, bail outs, etc., but I also can't willingly embrace a party that overwhelmingly promotes the formation of a theocracy and hates gay people. The GOP's figureheads are most prominently Ann Coulter, Rush Limbaugh, Dick Cheney, Bill O'Reilly, the belated Rev. Jerry Falwell, FOX News, etc., etc. It's just difficult to take people like this seriously.

Pennsylvania was always a crucial state in elections due to its high electoral vote count and its high population of moderates, but now I think it has finally permanently made the shift along with the rest of the Northeast (save perhaps for New Hampshire) to solidly being a "Blue" state. Sen. Specter knew he couldn't claim victory this year as a Republican, and he made the best possible decision he could to advance his career.

Let's do some further analysis into Pennsylvania, shall we? Out of the Commonwealth's 67 counties, here is the break-down of ones that are normally reliably "blue" or "red" (populations provided are as of 7/1/08 estimates; black ones are now "swing" counties):

Philadelphia County (Philadelphia): 1,447,395
Allegheny County (Pittsburgh): 1,215,103
Montgomery County (Philadelphia Suburbs): 778,048
Bucks County (Philadelphia Suburbs): 621,643
Delaware County (Philadelphia Suburbs): 553,619
Lancaster County (Lancaster): 502,370
Chester County (Philadelphia Suburbs): 491,489
York County (York): 424,583
Berks County (Reading): 403,595
Westmoreland County (Pittsburgh Suburbs): 361,589
Lehigh County (Allentown): 339,989
Luzerne County (Wilkes-Barre/Hazleton): 311,983
Northampton County (Bethlehem/Easton): 294,787
Erie County (Erie): 279,175
Dauphin County (Harrisburg): 256,562
Cumberland County (Harrisburg Suburbs): 229,361
Lackawanna County (Scranton): 209,408
Washington County (Pittsburgh Suburbs): 206,407
Butler County (Pittsburgh Suburbs): 182,902
Beaver County (Pittsburgh Suburbs): 172,476
Monroe County (Poconos): 165,058
Schuylkill County (Pottsville): 147,254
Centre County (State College): 144,779
Cambria County (Johnstown): 144,319
Fayette County: 143,925
Franklin County: 143,495
Lebanon County (Lebanon): 128,934
Blair County (Altoona): 125,174
Lycoming County (Williamsport): 116,670
Mercer County (Sharon): 116,652
Adams County (Gettysburg): 101,119
Northumberland County (Sunbury/Shamokin): 91,091
Lawrence County (New Castle): 90,272
Crawford County: 88,411
Indiana County: 87,479
Clearfield County: 82,896
Somerset County: 77,454
Armstrong County (Pittsburgh Suburbs): 68,790
Columbia County (Bloomsburg): 65,004
Carbon County (Jim Thorpe/Lehighton): 63,558
Bradford County (Endless Mountains): 61,233
Pike County (Poconos): 59,664
Venango County: 54,423
Wayne County (Poconos/Endless Mountains): 52,016
Bedford County: 49,727
Mifflin County: 46,062
Huntingdon County: 45,543
Perry County: 45,185
Jefferson County: 45,105
Union County (Lewisburg): 43,640
McKean County (Bradford): 43,537
Susquehanna County (Endless Mountains): 40,831
Warren County: 40,728
Tioga County: 40,574
Clarion County: 39,989
Greene County: 39,344
Snyder County (Selinsgrove): 38,074
Clinton County (Lock Haven): 37,038
Elk County: 32,268
Wyoming County (Endless Mountains): 27,759
Juniata County: 23,146
Montour County (Danville): 17,705
Potter County: 16,720
Fulton County: 14,935
Forest County: 6,825
Sullivan County: 6,124
Cameron County: 5,266

The tally?

BLUE: 7,479,975
RED: 3,208,257
SWING: 1,643,395

Considering numerous swing counties in PA (most notably the heavily-populated Chester, Berks, and Dauphin) are starting to gain tremendous Democratic momentum, I just don't foresee PA ever having the chance to go "Red" ever again. PA should now be considered a solid "Blue" state (thank God!)

Last edited by SteelCityRising; 04-28-2009 at 03:10 PM.. Reason: Typographical Error
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:10 PM
 
9,763 posts, read 10,489,680 times
Reputation: 2052
Quote:
Originally Posted by pghquest View Post
According to Specter that isnt why he's switching, he's switching because he's TOO moderate to win re-election anymore as a Republican, and that he can ONLY win by becoming a registered Democrat.
Huh? That's what I wrote; he's switching parties to get reelected.

Quote:
Some might look at this as a fact that GOP members are moving more to the right and unwilling to vote for a Republican left of center.

Jees, I wonder if that has anything to do with Obama, pushing those not like him away..
How is disagreement equivalent to "pushing someone away?" The few extremists left - aka, the Republican base - are already pushed away from Obama. It has nothing to do with agreement and everything to do with the fact that Obama is a Democrat.

Quote:
What "clue" are we supposed to get from this? That your supposed to compromise your values for the ultimate prize, winning an election?
The clue is that most people are moderate. One can allow others certain freedoms while not compromising their personal values.

Quote:
Only a liberal would think thats good..
I don't even know what this means. I'm not a liberal, and I wrote nothing about anything being "good," so I can't relate.

Do conservatives think it's "good" when a Democrat switches to the Republican Party?
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:10 PM
 
26,111 posts, read 48,696,623 times
Reputation: 31481
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
I'm an independent and at this point in time there is NO WAY I'm voting for ANY Republican. The GOP I voted for from time to time in the past no longer exists. Ken
Yep. Hell, I voted for NIXON 72, FORD 76, REAGAN 80, REAGAN 84, BUSH 88, and BUSH 92 but since Newt rode into DC and Jerry Falwell politicized religion I've had to vote for the most reaonsable, moderate persons I could find, and that has NOT been any GOP candidate.

The GOP of Ike and Goldwater lies dead and buried under a stack of last week's discarded church bulletins, testimony to the power of religious-based hate spewed by Dobson, Robertson, Falwell(d), Hagee, Parsley, FOTF, AFA, ADF, et al, to destroy all it touches.

There simply is no way that any GOP fan on this board or anywhere can downplay the significance of Specter's defection from the party. The 2006 election was a serious tremor. McCain's loss was a full blown earthquake. Specter's desertion is a major after-shock, of which I hope to see more. The ripple effect will change things at the local level for sometime.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:10 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 63,814,416 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by Little-Acorn View Post
One of the weirdest things about people today, is how they point to a man who voted for the single most socialist program ever presented to the U.S. Senate, and who claims the current big-spending, entitlement-creating Republican party as "to the right of where it was in 1980"... and they then refer to him as a "Moderate".

Try to imagine for a moment, just how much careful forgetful mental distortion, how much blinders-wearing doublethink, is required for that.
Shh, dont confuse liberals with facts, they clearly think this was a positive move for them and uncapable of understanding how this really changes nothing.. Let them run around high 5ng each other, its almost hmorous..
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Southeast
4,301 posts, read 7,008,148 times
Reputation: 1464
Quote:
Originally Posted by LordBalfor View Post
Yeah, but "off-year" elections pretty much always have a low turnout - and I doubt 2010 will be much different. The fact is, few people really get all that excited about voting for a member of Congress. It's the Presidential races that draw the "large" crowds. 2012 will have a big turnout, but 2010 - not so much. I suspect the turnout will be much like past mid-term elections have been.

Ken
See, that's what gets me.. People should be more enthusiastic about voting in mid-term elections. Sure, they are not glorified, or even as interesting (usually) as the presidential elections, but I still believe that in many ways, Congress is more influential in the direction of our country than the president.

I also doubt we will see as massive of a turnout in 2012 as we did last November.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Unperson Everyman Land
38,600 posts, read 26,206,896 times
Reputation: 12624
Quote:
Originally Posted by Dukester View Post
Snowe: GOP Has Abandoned Principles; Specter Switch "Devastating"

Chuck Hagel, how about it? We got room for one more...


You can have that RINO Snowe too. GOP now leads in latest Rasmussen poll.

Rasmussen Reports™: The Most Comprehensive Public Opinion Data Anywhere (http://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/mood_of_america/congressional_ballot/generic_congressional_ballot - broken link)
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:13 PM
 
Location: Houston, TX
1,611 posts, read 4,837,351 times
Reputation: 1485
For all intents and purposes, Specter already was a democrat - he was certainly already voting like one. If I was one of the electorate that put him in office I would feel very betrayed right now. Politicians are elected to vote the way their constituants want them to, not to vote their own consciences. Specter is basically just telling the people of Pennsylvania that he doesn't care what they want, he is going to do what is expedient for him so that he can increase his chances of being returned to congress by appreciative democrats instead of being drummed out by angry republicans who feel betrayed by his left wing voting record.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:14 PM
 
Location: in my imagination
13,562 posts, read 21,309,993 times
Reputation: 10052
Quote:
Originally Posted by Mike from back east View Post
Yep. Hell, I voted for NIXON 72, FORD 76, REAGAN 80, REAGAN 84, BUSH 88, and BUSH 92 but since Newt rode into DC and Jerry Falwell politicized religion I've had to vote for the most reaonsable, moderate persons I could find, and that has NOT been any GOP candidate.

The GOP of Ike and Goldwater lies dead and buried under a stack of last week's discarded church bulletins, testimony to the power of religious-based hate spewed by Dobson, Robertson, Falwell(d), Hagee, Parsley, FOTF, AFA, ADF, et al, to destroy all it touches.

There simply is no way that any GOP fan on this board or anywhere can downplay the significance of Specter's defection from the party. The 2006 election was a serious tremor. McCain's loss was a full blown earthquake. Specter's desertion is a major after-shock, of which I hope to see more. The ripple effect will change things at the local level for sometime.
That's all fine and dandy the problem is the DNC are crooks and corrupt as much as the die hard Dems here accuse the GOP of being,but you never see the die hard Dems admit to that.So so what?,another Democrat for a dumbocrat party.Just more power slanted to one side.
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:14 PM
 
4,459 posts, read 4,191,117 times
Reputation: 648
Quote:
Originally Posted by lionking View Post
When the reporter asked the looter coming out of the store "why are you stealing,don't you know it is wrong?".The looter replied "well the guy behind me did to so that makes it alright for me to also".
Kind of a bizarre or how shall I say, how about delusional analogy...
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Old 04-28-2009, 03:15 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 63,814,416 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by Politico View Post
They can just pass it.
And you think thats a good thing
What happened to Obama and his bi-partisan wishful thinking? ooh no one really meant that...
Quote:
Originally Posted by Politico View Post
That has major ramifications, since bills passed through reconciliation have ten-year limits. Bills passed with 60 votes have no time limit.
Specter has voted Democratic for 29 YEARS, this changes NOTHING.. He's just registering in the party as a Democrat because he'd lose as a Republican, his words.. not mine..
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