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Since none of the stimulus has even kicked in yet and considering the CBO said in Jan 2009 the recession would end late this year, early next - it has little to do with obama.
Economic Policy Institute
The April 29 report on gross domestic product (GDP) growth in the first quarter of 2009 just confirms the obvious: the United States economy is mired in a particularly steep recession. The chart below shows the decline in GDP and its components compared to the average of all other recessions since World War II. On every indicator except government purchases, the current recession is worse than average, and it should be noted that further declines are almost inevitable in coming quarters.
The last quarter of 2008 and the first quarter of 2009 together posted the worst half-year of GDP performance in over 60 years. While coming quarters may see a moderation in the pace of decline, it’s clear that this recession is already a standout in its severity and will only get worse.
U.S. Economy: Leading Index Shows Extended Recession (Update1)
By Bob Willis
April 20 (Bloomberg) -- The index of U.S. leading economic indicators fell more than forecast in March, signaling what may be the longest recession in the postwar era will extend into the second half of the year.
The Conference Board’s gauge, which points to the direction of the economy over the next three to six months, fell 0.3 percent after a 0.2 percent drop in February. The gauge hasn’t risen since June.
Rising unemployment and tight credit mean recent gains in consumer spending, the biggest part of the economy, will probably not be sustained. Stocks dropped as a report by Bank of America Corp. raised concern Americans will keep falling behind on loan payments.
“There’s no reason to think that this recession is going to end any time this spring or this summer,” Ken Goldstein, an economist at the New York-based Conference Board, said in an interview with Bloomberg Television. While “there is at least a little bit of a hint that the intensity may begin to back off over the next few months” the recession is “going to be a long slog,” he said.
From your link, this statement by the CBO seems a bit out of sync with what we are seeing today:
Quote:
Corresponding to the effects on output, CBO estimates that ARRA will increase employment by 0.9 million to 2.3 million by the fourth quarter of 2009, by 1.2 million to 3.6 million by the fourth quarter of 2010, by 0.6 million to 1.8 million by the fourth quarter of 2011
Yup.
I've been saying for weeks that things are starting to turn around - much to the likely irritation of this boards' Obamabashers. The stock market is already well into the recovery - with both the DOW and the S&P pretty much recovered back to the point that they were at when Obama was sworn in (and the NASDAQ already recovered well beyond that and in positive territory for the year) we are now well over 20% up from the lows of early March. The NASDAQ has had 8 SOLID weeks of gains, and the S&P and DOW have been up 7 of the last 8 weeks - and so far look to be up again this week.
This is not because of some fluke - there are good reasons behind it. While the economy is still in recession, there have been a LOT of indicators over the last few weeks that are suggesting that we are either at or very, very near the bottom - and the markets has been responding appropriately.
There is no doubt this is going to be a very tough year, but by the end of the year, the picture will likely look very different and I expect next year to see a LOT of improvement.
All of this is very bad news for the Obamabashers of course, who were frantically hoping for a total collapse of the economy so that Obama could be shown to be failing and the door re-opened for the GOP.
Unfortunately for them, I doubt that either of those things are going to happen.
Ken
Who are these strawman "Obamabashers" who are "frantically hoping for a total collapse of the economy so that Obama could be shown to be failing"?
Who are these strawman "Obamabashers" who are "frantically hoping for a total collapse of the economy so that Obama could be shown to be failing"?
Gee I don't know maybe the Rush listeners out there?
There seems to be plenty of them on this board.
I suspect maybe JimJ is (if not he's come to the same conclusions as Limbaugh on his own):
Quote:
Originally Posted by jimj
Yep, just wait 'till Government Motors gets going (down the toilet)
Lots of other ones out there. Just poke around on the board a bit - you'll find them. There are plenty of people out there hoping desperately for Obama to fail in a big way so they can worm their way back into favor with the American people by saying "see, I told you so".
It doesn't exactly take an Einstein to tell who these folks are.
Yup.
I've been saying for weeks that things are starting to turn around - much to the likely irritation of this boards' Obamabashers. The stock market is already well into the recovery - with both the DOW and the S&P pretty much recovered back to the point that they were at when Obama was sworn in (and the NASDAQ already recovered well beyond that and in positive territory for the year) we are now well over 20% up from the lows of early March. The NASDAQ has had 8 SOLID weeks of gains, and the S&P and DOW have been up 7 of the last 8 weeks - and so far look to be up again this week.
This is not because of some fluke - there are good reasons behind it. While the economy is still in recession, there have been a LOT of indicators over the last few weeks that are suggesting that we are either at or very, very near the bottom - and the markets has been responding appropriately.
There is no doubt this is going to be a very tough year, but by the end of the year, the picture will likely look very different and I expect next year to see a LOT of improvement.
All of this is very bad news for the Obamabashers of course, who were frantically hoping for a total collapse of the economy so that Obama could be shown to be failing and the door re-opened for the GOP.
Unfortunately for them, I doubt that either of those things are going to happen.
Ken
He's spent $80 billion so far. Are you saying that the other $9 trillion isn't needed?
This begs the question: If the economy is doing this on it's own, then why the need for the "massive stimulus spending [that] could start boosting economic growth sooner than later?"
I've held all along that the free marketplace will work itself out. These things you boast of are independent of the stimulus, at least as it is stated here. What gives?
I'm not so sure they are checking in the right places, CNBC is part of NBC universal which has direct ties to the white house through GE. I would think if you ask Obama he would of course say the economy is turning around. It was only a few days ago that the 6.1% GDP loss was reported, that's two quarters now.
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maybe the Rush listeners out there?
