Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Sounds like most foreclosures are now tied to layoffs rather than interest rate resets - so clearly reversing unemployment is the key. If that's the case, then as the unemployment numbers come down that should provide relief in the area of foreclosures. The key then is to try and get the employment picture repaired as soon as possible. New unemployment claims ARE continuing to drop - but clearly not fast enough yet.
Ken
This was the concern in my post:Continuing claims.
"The latest jobless claims show the economy is on its way to a "jobless recovery" that could be troublesome for the markets, Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, told CNBC.
Government data Thursday showed weekly jobless claims dropping more than expectations to 601,000, but continuing claims of those unable to find a job remain high, causing concern among investors.
"Continuing claims continue to be a problem," Cashin said. "Anything over 600,000 is not pleasant for this economy, and it continues to look like if we get a recovery it will be a relatively jobless recovery and that'll be something we struggle with."
"The latest jobless claims show the economy is on its way to a "jobless recovery" that could be troublesome for the markets, Art Cashin, director of floor operations at UBS, told CNBC.
Government data Thursday showed weekly jobless claims dropping more than expectations to 601,000, but continuing claims of those unable to find a job remain high, causing concern among investors.
"Continuing claims continue to be a problem," Cashin said. "Anything over 600,000 is not pleasant for this economy, and it continues to look like if we get a recovery it will be a relatively jobless recovery and that'll be something we struggle with."
Continuing claims will stay high (and continue to grow) until the weekly new claims numbers drop below the threshold where the number of new jobs created each week (and yes new jobs are being created even in a recession) exceeds the number of jobs being lost during that same week. This is the reason the Administration is trying to accelerate the release of the stimulus funds (and why the stimulus is still important even WHEN the economy begins it's recovery).
We are clearly not at that point yet but as the number of weekly job cuts drop at some point we WILL reach that. The big question is - when?
Continuing claims will stay high (and continue to grow) until the weekly new claims numbers drop below the threshold where the number of new jobs created each week (and yes new jobs are being created even in a recession) exceeds the number of jobs being lost during that same week. This is the reason the Administration is trying to accelerate the release of the stimulus funds (and why the stimulus is still important even WHEN the economy begins it's recovery).
We are clearly not at that point yet but as the number of weekly job cuts drop at some point we WILL reach that. The big question is - when?
Ken
Here you go Ken,
Jobless Claims Rise, but Continuing Claims Shrink - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/31423652 - broken link)
Jobless Claims Rise, but Continuing Claims Shrink - Economy * US * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/31423652 - broken link)
Yeah more mixed messages. That's the nature of being near or at the bottom. Yesterday we had some good news on the housing front and - as like last month - the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the best overall indication of where the economy is going) is likely to be "mixed" - indicating we might bounce along the bottom for a while yet.
Home price index of 20 cities in 1st monthly rise since 2006 - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Home-price-index-of-20-cities-cnnm-709579590.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=1&asset=&cco de - broken link)=
and bad news from consumers:
Consumer Confidence Falls More Than Expected in July - Retail * US * News * Story - CNBC.com (http://www.cnbc.com/id/32185292 - broken link)
This tells me the $8000 tax credit along with low interest rates have begun to revive the housing.
Let’s now apply this concept to consumers. It is time to stop Government spending and start cutting taxes. The more we have in our pockets the more we will consume. That creates demand which will create growth which will create jobs. Enough of the Government handling our money.
Yeah more mixed messages. That's the nature of being near or at the bottom. Yesterday we had some good news on the housing front and - as like last month - the Index of Leading Economic Indicators (the best overall indication of where the economy is going) is likely to be "mixed" - indicating we might bounce along the bottom for a while yet.
The question is "how long?"
Ken
that was a well thought out post. we do have mixed messages in the economy. i think that the tax credit of 15,000 dollars next year will help out the housing sector to the degree that it is able to.
the most important thing is to get the unemployment numbers down if this economy is driven by consumer spending.
The GDP drop reported at 1% today will probably be revised up to 1.5% however it is encouraging. I still worry about another dip in the economy late 2010 and 2011 with other hurdles to take on i.e. stagflation, continuing unemployment, foreclosures,
Recession eases; GDP dip smaller than expected - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recession-eases-GDP-dip-apf-3585281606.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset= &ccode - broken link)=
The GDP drop reported at 1% today will probably be revised up to 1.5% however it is encouraging. I still worry about another dip in the economy late 2010 and 2011 with other hurdles to take on i.e. stagflation, continuing unemployment, foreclosures,
Recession eases; GDP dip smaller than expected - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Recession-eases-GDP-dip-apf-3585281606.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset= &ccode - broken link)=
Oh yeah, there are PLENTY of upcoiming issues to be dealt with yet - but I'm confident they'll be dealt with.
Ken
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Good and Bad
