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Its the dollar . The value of the American dollar is declining . All dollar based commodities are are climbing at a faster pace than oil .
Gold
Silver
Don't forger there is CORN in our gas , the price of corn is going up with the other commodities .
Its the Dollar .
Excellent post, and very possible. The lunatic lefties, I'm afraid, will be all over this, saying the death of capitalism is warranted.
Quote:
Originally Posted by bchris02
For oil speculators, the economy is great right now. They are bathing in OUR money.
For the rest of us, just when we thought there was a glimmer of hope for the economy it keeps getting worse and worse. Don't worry, the truth will be widely known by the end of this year and the government will have to admit we are in a depression.
Here are some of my predictions, call me out on them if they are wrong at the end of the year.
-Oil will spike above $147/barrel sometime this year. This is likely anytime between Easter and July 4th. Speculators will try to push it to $200 but, barring something unforeseen such as revolution in Saudi Arabia, speculation alone will not be able to sustain those prices, and serious demand destruction will set in before they are able to get it there. Oil will be well below $100/barrel by the end of the year, possibly as low as $50.
-The Dow will have some wild swings going into the summer months. It won't make it to 13,000. When the SHTF it will crash fast, going well below 10,000 and possibly testing the March 2009 lows. I still do not think the Dow has seen its bottom.
-There will be a large bank failure going into late summer that will make Lehman look like cake. The government, due to its debt situation, will not be able to provide the funds for a bailout. This will be the catalyst that will start the collapse.
-GDP will head back into negative territory in Q3 and Q4. Wouldn't be surprised to see double digit losses in Q4 going into 2012
-The Christmas shopping season will be the worst on record. Many long-standing retailers will declare bankruptcy and shutter in late 2011-early 2012.
-U3 unemployment will go back above 10% by the end of the year, hitting as high as 15% in 2012, with U6 testing Great Depression levels
With the fed out of ammunition, I don't see anything that can be done to combat the coming collapse. The market MUST be allowed to correct itself. There is no other option, period. Its going to be extremely painful, but the longer Bernanke kicks the can down the road, the worse its going to get.
no, the decline ended in march 2009 and the climb out of the huge hole bush created began in middle 2009. Remember the talk of double dips? The markets lost over 40% of the market cap, it will take some time to correct bush's mess. Blaming obama for the mess is like blaming the mechanic that is fixing you car because you drove it without oil, and as he works you bagered him and stood in his way every time he tried to do something...
The recession ended June 2009 and the economy is humming along.
Don't you believe your government and your President when they told you that ?
And all the anger inside you, making you go all emotional EVERYTIME, lets you ignore the fact that the OP was made in July 2009.
Quote:
Originally Posted by buzzards27
everyone of you guys speculating on oil futures should be forced to take delivery a couple of times, that would cure you. If you aren't a consumer of crude oil you should be buy crude oil....
Speculation - very long post
I agree with bcris02. I expect the current economic stimulus will fade in the next six months as the underlying realities created by the speculative binge we have been on since Ronnie Raygun loosened financial restrictions designed to prevent speculative booms. Since then we have had a tremendous increase in both government military spending that was not supported by taxes and prices of nearly every commodity. A big change was turning the housing market into another commodity and creating a speculative binge with shaky mortgages and artificially low interest rates. This was a tremendous boon to the financiers because it turned a nation of homeowners into a Nation of gamblers.
Even with a population artificially swelled with immigration there are not enough people with high enough income to support either the volume of prices in the housing market. The recent drop in prices reflects this shortage of customers. The speculators have been ruined because the system was designed to let the owners holding the bag when prices collapsed. Not surprisingly the prices and sales of McMansions is stagnant as their speculative value has collapsed but the volume and value of the McPalaces has increased as the winners in the speculative market turn their winnings into blatant displays of wealth.
The energy industry has been dominated by monopoly and cartel since the establishment of the Standard Oil Company in the late 1800’s. Despite some setbacks during the anti monopoly actions in the early 1900’s the prices of oil have been controlled by limiting supply. These prices have been set at a level that makes, except for extraordinary situations, it uneconomical to develop or install any alternates. The coal industry has pretty much done the same. As our economy collapses we will not have the capital needed to build alternatives to oil and coal because we will not be able to finance the needed facilities.
The difference now is the US has a major competitor for oil. India and China can consume every barrel we do not. I expect the competition for a dwindling resource will drive crude oil prices into the $150 to $200 levels. The results will likely be $5 a gallon gasoline and $7 a gallon road Diesel. Home heating oil will likely be over $5 a gallon. As these prices the flow through the economy costs will eliminate most discretionary spending. Loss of the spending ability will devastate the service sector of our economy with eventual employment levels dropping to the lows experienced by our industrial, particularly small industry, employment.
This unemployment will also hit the local and state workers as the tax base that supports these workers disappears. Most local and state governments are financed by property and sales taxes and they will be devastated as house prices collapse and general sales decline.
I even doubt our military adventures supporting the petroleum industry will continue because the beneficiaries of our spending, the oil rich Middle East, has never been willing to rent our Military but have considered it theirs to use. WE cannot now support that debt and certainly will not in the future.
Aside: If we used our Military to capture these resources and sold them to the rest of the world and keeping the profit for our country we just might be able to afford our military. However as we do not have the nerve for actual conquest I do not think we will adopt this approach.
Unless we pay a lot more attention to our country and economy we will devolve into a nation of paupers and aristocrats. Eventually even the aristocrats will lose their wealth as the basis of that wealth disappears. The Westerners that have invested so much in China do not seem to realize that China’s economy will soon become self financing and China will not have to continue to pay dividends to existing foreign investors.
This is funny
Originally Posted by wehotex the greedy white males are associated with the commodity traders, not tree huggers. The tree huggers are the good guys.
everyone of you guys speculating on oil futures should be forced to take delivery a couple of times, that would cure you. If you aren't a consumer of crude oil you should be buy crude oil....
sorry, I meant to say. "If you aren't a consumer of crude oil you should NOT be buying crude oil....
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