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Old 07-20-2009, 07:13 AM
 
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http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com/

in part:Around the country, the number of people exhausting their benefits is piling up. By the end of September, more than 500,000 people will exhaust their benefits checks, with the biggest groups in Pennsylvania, California and Texas, according to estimates by the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group for low-wage workers based in New York City. That number will nearly triple by the end of the year, the group said.
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Old 07-20-2009, 07:29 AM
 
Location: Central Ohio
10,834 posts, read 14,934,551 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridasandy View Post
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

in part:Around the country, the number of people exhausting their benefits is piling up. By the end of September, more than 500,000 people will exhaust their benefits checks, with the biggest groups in Pennsylvania, California and Texas, according to estimates by the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group for low-wage workers based in New York City. That number will nearly triple by the end of the year, the group said.
But taking these people off the unemployment rolls will indicate full jobs recovery and less unemployment!

Our stimulus is working!
\
Obama

Last edited by Reads2MUCH; 07-22-2009 at 05:56 PM.. Reason: spell check
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:24 AM
 
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The most recent report on home foreclosures was very ugly. The second quarter foreclosure rate was at 889,000. Annualized, that is about 3.5 Million homes foreclosed upon in 2009. The national stats for homeowners in the US in 2007 was about 75 million homes owner occupied. The National Association of Realtors is projecting 5.5 million homes to be sold in 2009.

Additionally, this report highlights that 8.3 million households are now underwater and at risk of "walk aways". 2.2 million more will be underwater if we go down in prices another 5%. Option ARMS are just beginning to be reset and those numbers will peak in August of 2011 and will most likely drive all of these numbers higher with higher mortgage payments. These are all published numbers from non government agencies.

Here is a summary

US Households: 75 Million
2009 Projected Foreclosures: 3.5 Million (1 of every 21 households)
2009 Projected Home Sales 5.5 Million
Inventory of Foreclosures 2 1/2 years (assuming 25% of home sales are foreclosures)
Number of Homes Underwater 8.8. million (1 of every 8.5 households)
Number of Households underwater if prices decline another 5%: 11 Million (1 of every 6.8 households)

it doesn't look like we have made much headway in either unemployment or housing with the stimulus regardless of the reports.
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:31 AM
 
23,838 posts, read 23,121,445 times
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It will be interesting to see how this information is spun by the media and the Administration come December. Either it will lead to another "stimulus" package aimed at bolstering/extending unemployment benefits again, or it will lead to an even more protracted recession. Do we spend (borrow) more money to help these folks survive? The compassionate side of me says "yes" while the fiscally conservative side of me says "spending our way out of debt is not the answer."

This will be a big challenge for the Administration. That much is guaranteed.
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:34 AM
 
48,502 posts, read 96,848,488 times
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The stimulus contained very little stimulus actually est at 30%;much of it long term. There is no real housing plan as promised by Guenther months ago. Not much is working and alot of debt incurred .Many companies have brought their bottom line down and are showing a profit based on reductions in many areas like employment.About the only jobs i see being created by the stimulus will be temporary jobs most in construction and maybe some token flagman etc for the non-skilled to satisfy the government. But i have to say that the underwater does not mean the people are behind on payments or in trouble;it only reflects lowering value compared to what was paid. By that standard most vehicles purchased are underwater because of lower price how.So even though many are underwater because they woe more than the current value it doesn't mean they will sell them or stop paying.I know alot of people who even with the drop are way ahead because they also sold a home at much greater value when prices rose and bought another. Some made twice or more what they originally paid.With so many buying and selling in the last ten years because of business move many made enough to pay cash for their last home if they wanted.So its a mixed picture and takes mopre than numbers.

Last edited by texdav; 07-20-2009 at 09:46 AM..
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:35 AM
 
Location: New York City
1,556 posts, read 3,547,902 times
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Thumbs down Economic stimulus not working!

As someone who was laid off from a job in December 2008.......recently pulled my home out of foreclosure and now fighting to keep my head above water I can say that the economic stimulus is NOT WORKING.

Banks eventhough they have received bail out money are reluctant to help people stay in their homes. In fact to get a loan modification from the banks there has to be some form of income coming in to the house........unemployment is not counted by the bank as income when they are looking at modifying a mortgage loan to a more affordable level.

Most companys are still not doing the level of hiring that they were doing a couple of years ago and it is even worse here in the southern part of the United States.

It is very easy for the people who still have jobs, have not lost their homes and do not have these problems to say that we can't spend our way to a better economy. Those of us that have lost our jobs (laid off) did not ask for this fate..........therefore if unemployment needs to be extended until people can find work and get on their feet than that is exactly what needs to happen. If it were you......you would want the same thing so that you could survive!
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:36 AM
 
3,857 posts, read 4,215,205 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by floridasandy View Post
Mish's Global Economic Trend Analysis

in part:Around the country, the number of people exhausting their benefits is piling up. By the end of September, more than 500,000 people will exhaust their benefits checks, with the biggest groups in Pennsylvania, California and Texas, according to estimates by the National Employment Law Project, an advocacy group for low-wage workers based in New York City. That number will nearly triple by the end of the year, the group said.
Do you happen to know the unemployment numbers for Florida? Also is there a hiring freeze for state jobs in Florida at this time?
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:42 AM
 
12,867 posts, read 14,912,825 times
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florida 10.6 % in june. state numbers can be viewed here:
Local Area Unemployment Statistics Home Page

here is the official link for government jobs:
http://jobsearch.usajobs.opm.gov/a9trep.aspx (broken link)
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:52 AM
 
Location: South Fla
9,644 posts, read 9,845,032 times
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South Fla is one scarey place to be right now. Unemployment will barely cover your housing payments.

I found out the other day there is an actual tent city around here by the expressway ramps because the way the trees are helps with shade.
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Old 07-20-2009, 09:57 AM
 
5,165 posts, read 6,052,273 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jadex View Post
South Fla is one scarey place to be right now. Unemployment will barely cover your housing payments.

I found out the other day there is an actual tent city around here by the expressway ramps because the way the trees are helps with shade.
well, there are a few sections that are scary like that but yes overall it is rough down here. I would say 3 out of 4 streets has at least one foreclosed home on it. And foreclosed homes are ugly. Dirty brown pools, weeds everywhere, grass up to your knees. If a hurricane hits this year watch out , those homes will be ravaged. Maybe that is what the banks want?
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