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July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Components of the index of leading economic indicators are signaling the worst U.S. recession in five decades may be over now, not three to six months from now.
Less-known elements of the Conference Board’s report, including ratios and diffusion indexes, bolster the view the contraction has ended. The leading index, a gauge of the economic outlook over the next two quarters, rose 0.7 percent in June, a third consecutive gain, the New York-based research group said today.
The leading index was up 12.8 percent at an annual rate over the last three months, today’s report showed. It was the best performance since January 2002, two months after the last recession ended.
“This is the third straight month of a gain in leaders and suggests that, along with other economic evidence, the U.S. recession might have ended” in the second quarter, Kenneth Kim, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, wrote in a note to clients.
Earlier this year, only the financial components of the leading index -- including money supply and the difference in interest rates between the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the overnight rate banks charge to borrow from each other --were rising. The increase in the diffusion index shows other measures are also now increasing.
“We now have positive moves in the indicators of the real side of the economy,” such as decreasing jobless claims and increasing building permits, the Conference Board’s Ozyildirim said.
This is funny. Again, talking heads. Try to get a good job if you lost yours. Try to get health insurance.
The tax credit will be extended. But commercial real estate is going to be hurting.
How can any jobs get created when small and medium businesses cannot afford the lease payments?
Government has not addressed the sickness in the economy all they have done is use band aids. The next bubble is right around the corner.
There will always be bubbles, and the trick is to take advantage of them. People shovel money into the bubble, and that's what we need right now. We need to get the money flowing again.
July 20 (Bloomberg) -- Components of the index of leading economic indicators are signaling the worst U.S. recession in five decades may be over now, not three to six months from now.
Less-known elements of the Conference Board’s report, including ratios and diffusion indexes, bolster the view the contraction has ended. The leading index, a gauge of the economic outlook over the next two quarters, rose 0.7 percent in June, a third consecutive gain, the New York-based research group said today.
The leading index was up 12.8 percent at an annual rate over the last three months, today’s report showed. It was the best performance since January 2002, two months after the last recession ended.
“This is the third straight month of a gain in leaders and suggests that, along with other economic evidence, the U.S. recession might have ended” in the second quarter, Kenneth Kim, an economist at Stone & McCarthy Research Associates in Princeton, New Jersey, wrote in a note to clients.
Earlier this year, only the financial components of the leading index -- including money supply and the difference in interest rates between the benchmark 10-year Treasury note and the overnight rate banks charge to borrow from each other --were rising. The increase in the diffusion index shows other measures are also now increasing.
“We now have positive moves in the indicators of the real side of the economy,” such as decreasing jobless claims and increasing building permits, the Conference Board’s Ozyildirim said.
Borrowed money isnt recovery. Proppin up stiifs like toxic banks, corporations, individuals, and crooks like Government sachs dont count, because the borrowed money wasnt created by our economy, it was created by Chinas economy.
Do you think it will be increased after the end of the year, or just stay the same?
If they do increase it when China is now having problems selling $20B of our T-Notes, I'm guessing it will be HIGHLY inflationary.
Since I am a FTHB who will be in the market early next year I hope they increase it. From what I have been reading the high end is $15,000. It will probably wind up around $11,000 if I had to guess but it would be with less strings attached then the current tax credit. I.e. no income restrictions
There will always be bubbles, and the trick is to take advantage of them. People shovel money into the bubble, and that's what we need right now. We need to get the money flowing again.
Like Celente says, this is the mother of all bubbles - the bailout bubble, and when it does pop - look out below
Location: I currently exist only in a state of mind. one too complex for geographic location.
4,196 posts, read 5,841,798 times
Reputation: 670
Quote:
Originally Posted by Finn_Jarber
Then he must have failed at destroying it, because things are looking better. You sound like a Obama-hater, and therefore you probably prayed for a complete economic collapse. Thank goodness your prayers were not answered, but then again, they rarely are when you pray for misfortune and misery for others.
I don't pray for anything. things don't look any better from where I am standing. recessions always come. he is prolonging it, and will make things worse in the long run. he's hoping that his little plan will provide temp jobs. well, those jobs go away.
Borrowed money isnt recovery. Proppin up stiifs like toxic banks, corporations, individuals, and crooks like Government sachs dont count, because the borrowed money wasnt created by our economy, it was created by Chinas economy.
Location: I currently exist only in a state of mind. one too complex for geographic location.
4,196 posts, read 5,841,798 times
Reputation: 670
Quote:
Originally Posted by roysoldboy
How about tfs and me thinking about you?
nah, he's right. I am crazy. but at least I'm sane enough to admit it.
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