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Despite the best efforts of the "Doom and Gloom" crowd, the VIX (CBOE VOLATILITY INDEX) - often referred to as the "Fear Index" - has dropped like a rock since it peaked near 80 back in the dark days of last October and November to a very low (and very normal) value in the low 20s - reflecting a massive lessening of fear and nervousness (and a growing sense of optimism) among investors.
Been awhile since I've heard the Obamabashers on this board refer to the stock market rally as "Bear Market Rally". LOL
My level of uncertainty and apprehension has dropped since last year. Fortunately, I remain employed, versus several other friends of mine who weren't as lucky.
My 401K and other investments have also seen a happy return upwards, quite the opposite of last year when I was afraid to take a look, when the question was "how low can it go?"
I can only speak from what I see and here in a very rural area that is primarily based on agriculture, timber, mining, and small manufacturing, things are still pretty dim.
Cattle prices are still pretty dismal, although I think this is as much due to the ascension of the corporate mega farm. Timber is finally just now starting to slowly pick up but most mills in the area are running at less than 40%, so far from stellar. Manufacturing is still really hurting and will probably be the last to get rolling again. Point being, if I'm not mistaken, the rise and fall in stock markets precede the real world by at least a year. I wouldn't expect John Q to get too thrilled right now.
Yup, stocks continue to climb - and are once again at new highs for the year. They've long ago made up everything they lost early in the year, have regained all they lost last year during the dark days of November and are now back to where we were back in early October (having recovered roughly half of the big drop that occured during that chaotic period).
I can only speak from what I see and here in a very rural area that is primarily based on agriculture, timber, mining, and small manufacturing, things are still pretty dim.
Cattle prices are still pretty dismal, although I think this is as much due to the ascension of the corporate mega farm. Timber is finally just now starting to slowly pick up but most mills in the area are running at less than 40%, so far from stellar. Manufacturing is still really hurting and will probably be the last to get rolling again. Point being, if I'm not mistaken, the rise and fall in stock markets precede the real world by at least a year. I wouldn't expect John Q to get too thrilled right now.
Well, as usual employment is the "tail-end charlie" in any recovery.
It will WILL arrive. Next year will look quite a bit better.
Well I'm far from one of the shills wondering why the market isn't over 12,000 yet and unemployment is down to less than 5%, after all, economics tend to move like molasses in December. At the same time, a good number of the reasons we ended up in our economic crisis are being continued. Government is still spending like a drunken sailor, just on different projects. Now it may turn out good or bad, I simply do not know. I do know that the finance and banking industry is already crafting wildly exotic investment instruments, so apparently they learned little through this ordeal.
The Kenneth Lewis's, James Gorman's, and Charles Prince's of the world did not and do not feel or experience the same economy that most do. So while economic recovery is a great thing, it isn't yet an assured thing. I'll wait a few more months before my skepticism thaws.
Well I'm far from one of the shills wondering why the market isn't over 12,000 yet and unemployment is down to less than 5%, after all, economics tend to move like molasses in December. At the same time, a good number of the reasons we ended up in our economic crisis are being continued. Government is still spending like a drunken sailor, just on different projects. Now it may turn out good or bad, I simply do not know. I do know that the finance and banking industry is already crafting wildly exotic investment instruments, so apparently they learned little through this ordeal.
The Kenneth Lewis's, James Gorman's, and Charles Prince's of the world did not and do not feel or experience the same economy that most do. So while economic recovery is a great thing, it isn't yet an assured thing. I'll wait a few more months before my skepticism thaws.
And that is a fair position to take (unlike that of the silly shills you mention). There are certainly challenges yet to be overcome.
And that is a fair position to take (unlike that of the silly shills you mention). There are certainly challenges yet to be overcome.
Ken
Well I admit I struggle getting my mind around the complexities of our contemporary economics, after all we have some of the worlds best minds in play and even they have doubts and uncertainty. Since my understanding of economics is rather limited compared to some folks here, I have to look at economics in terms of the world I see every day.
I have heard of the "fear index" but I haven't had time to look up how this is calculated, so if anyone has that information on hand, by all means, I'd enjoy it.
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