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Old 09-19-2009, 11:27 PM
 
Location: 3rd rock from the sun
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Old 09-19-2009, 11:39 PM
 
Location: SARASOTA, FLORIDA
11,486 posts, read 15,301,360 times
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Does this take into account the changes recently made that remove the people who are no longer getting unemployment benefits as they have ran out in many states?

The numbers have been skewed to show less then the real amount of CURRENT unemployed people.

Just wondering because a few economic and labor people have mentioned the real current unemployment rate is around 16%.
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Old 09-19-2009, 11:46 PM
 
Location: 3rd rock from the sun
3,857 posts, read 6,954,972 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunny-Days90 View Post
Does this take into account the changes recently made that remove the people who are no longer getting unemployment benefits as they have ran out in many states?

The numbers have been skewed to show less then the real amount of CURRENT unemployed people.

Just wondering because a few economic and labor people have mentioned the real current unemployment rate is around 16%.
I don't believe that is a recent change to methodology, I could be wrong, but believe that is a long standing criticism of reported unemployment numbers.

This article from 2003 makes a similar point about underestimating unemployment:
http://www.comstockfunds.com/default...ookieSupport=1
Quote:
This means that about 2.3 million people dropped out of the labor force during that period and are no longer counted as unemployed. If these people were still in the labor force, the unemployment rate would now be 7.6% rather than the official 6.0%
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Old 09-19-2009, 11:47 PM
 
Location: Alameda, CA
7,605 posts, read 4,842,742 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunny-Days90 View Post
Does this take into account the changes recently made that remove the people who are no longer getting unemployment benefits as they have ran out in many states?

The numbers have been skewed to show less then the real amount of CURRENT unemployed people.

Just wondering because a few economic and labor people have mentioned the real current unemployment rate is around 16%.
FWIW, the official unemployment rate has always under represented the real figure due to the problems of counting people who have temporarily given up looking for work or otherwise have dropped off the government radar.
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Old 09-20-2009, 12:01 AM
 
Location: SARASOTA, FLORIDA
11,486 posts, read 15,301,360 times
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"If one considers the people who would like a job but have stopped looking -- so-called discouraged workers -- and those who are working fewer hours than they want, the unemployment rate would move from the official 9.4 percent to 16 percent, said Atlanta Fed chief Dennis Lockhart.

Many experts have stated that the Obama administration is fudging the numbers.

The Raw Story | Real US unemployment rate at 16 pct: Fed official (http://rawstory.com/news/afp/Real_US_unemployment_rate_at_16_pct_08262009.html - broken link)

or

The Real Unemployment Rate Is Much Worse Than 8.1%

Here is stats from the BLS

Table A-12. Alternative measures of labor underutilization

Not seasonally adjusted Seasonally adjusted

Measure

Aug. July Aug. Aug. Apr. May June July Aug.
2008 2009 2009 2008 2009 2009 2009 2009 2009


U-1 Persons unemployed 15 weeks or longer, as a percent
of the civilian labor force....................... 2.1 4.9 4.9 2.2 4.0 4.5 5.1 5.1 5.1

U-2 Job losers and persons who completed temporary
jobs, as a percent of the civilian labor force.... 3.0 6.0 6.0 3.2 5.7 6.2 6.2 6.2 6.4

U-3 Total unemployed, as a percent of the civilian
labor force (official unemployment rate).......... 6.1 9.7 9.6 6.2 8.9 9.4 9.5 9.4 9.7

U-4 Total unemployed plus discouraged workers, as a
percent of the civilian labor force plus
discouraged workers............................... 6.3 10.2 10.0 6.4 9.3 9.8 10.0 9.8 10.1

U-5 Total unemployed, plus discouraged workers, plus
all other marginally attached workers, as a
percent of the civilian labor force plus all
marginally attached workers....................... 7.1 11.0 10.9 7.2 10.1 10.6 10.8 10.7 11.0

U-6 Total unemployed, plus all marginally attached
workers, plus total employed part time for
economic reasons, as a percent of the civilian
labor force plus all marginally attached workers.. 10.7 16.8 16.5 10.9 15.8 16.4 16.5 16.3 16.8
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Old 09-20-2009, 12:11 AM
 
Location: 3rd rock from the sun
3,857 posts, read 6,954,972 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Sunny-Days90 View Post
Many experts have stated that the Obama administration is fudging the numbers.
I see nothing that suggests that the Obama Administration has changed the Department of Labor's methodology - which has always been flawed & unable to capture certain segments.
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Old 09-20-2009, 01:17 AM
 
11,155 posts, read 15,700,997 times
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Wow. Thanks for posting this. What an atrocity the Bushes were for us! Employment is always the lagging indicator, but we should all hope Obama can continue to fix the economy and get us back to a Clinton-style era.
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Old 09-20-2009, 01:36 AM
 
Location: Earth
24,620 posts, read 28,271,474 times
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Sunny, it's the opposite.
Under Bush II, and before, once people were no longer receiving benefits, they were no longer counted.
You can't skew everything you post to make it look like Obama is the anti-christ.
You really need to check your "facts."
Facts are not equal to what you want things to be.
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Old 09-20-2009, 12:32 PM
 
58,973 posts, read 27,267,735 times
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Find the same chart as it relates to congress please
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Old 09-20-2009, 12:42 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,081,664 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chielgirl View Post
Sunny, it's the opposite.
Under Bush II, and before, once people were no longer receiving benefits, they were no longer counted.
You can't skew everything you post to make it look like Obama is the anti-christ.
You really need to check your "facts."
Facts are not equal to what you want things to be.
Speaking of fact checking, your posting makes it seem that you believe Obama now counts those who no longer receive benefits into the "unemployment" figures, care to back that up with some facts
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