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So, judging by this list from the past 9 hurricane seasons. Every year but 2005 was an El nino?
Historically the average has been 11 per year. Sometimes more, sometimes less, but almost always less on El Nino years. But then there tends to be more in the Pacific during El nino years. The scientists seem split on whether hotter temps would increase the number of storms or actually decrease them. The warmer water would guarantee more intense hurricanes, but some scientists suggest that it is harder for them to form because hotter air causes more upper atmosphere currents.
The increased hurricane activity and storms goes back to 2004 when a IPCC lead author made that claim in a press conference when the there was nothing to support it. It led Chris Landsea and expert in the field to resign, here's snippet and link to his resignation:
It is beyond me why my colleagues would utilize the media to push an unsupported agenda that recent hurricane activity has been due to global warming. Given Dr. Trenberth’s role as the IPCC’s Lead Author responsible for preparing the text on hurricanes, his public statements so far outside of current scientific understanding led me to concern that it would be very difficult for the IPCC process to proceed objectively with regards to the assessment on hurricane activity. My view is that when people identify themselves as being associated with the IPCC and then make pronouncements far outside current scientific understandings that this will harm the credibility of climate change science and will in the longer term diminish our role in public policy.
My concerns go beyond the actions of Dr. Trenberth and his colleagues to how he and other IPCC officials responded to my concerns. I did caution Dr. Trenberth before the media event and provided him a summary of the current understanding within the hurricane research community. I was disappointed when the IPCC leadership dismissed my concerns when I brought up the misrepresentation of climate science while invoking the authority of the IPCC. Specifically, the IPCC leadership said that Dr. Trenberth was speaking as an individual even though he was introduced in the press conference as an IPCC lead author; I was told that that the media was exaggerating or misrepresenting his words, even though the audio from the press conference and interview tells a different story (available on the web directly); and that Dr. Trenberth was accurately reflecting conclusions from the TAR, even though it is quite clear that the TAR stated that there was no connection between global warming and hurricane activity. The IPCC leadership saw nothing to be concerned with in Dr. Trenberth's unfounded pronouncements to the media, despite his supposedly impartial important role that he must undertake as a Lead Author on the upcoming AR4.
The media ate it up has been running with it since.
The real problem with talking about hurricanes in the context of AGW is that it is very time sensitive. Move of the relevant information that suggests an uptick in hurricane activity relating to global warming (either man made or cyclical) is that we are 4 years past the panic.
Since 2005 the total number of cyclone activity has fallen off the table and since reaching historic highs in 2005 we are now delving down to 30 year lows in activity.
For the AGW crowd it would have been nice to capture time in a bottle but you can only do that in song…
I don't think anybody is suggesting it's not getting warmer. It has been for 10,000 years. Please explain what caused the glaciers that covered present-day Maine or Washington to melt before the modern industrial era.
however, looking at a 30 year trend can give a solid picture....
we have that. It doesnt suggest hurricanes are getting stronger due to AGW.
At lot of things affect cyclones. Hurricanes are a regional phenomenon so let be careful about global conclusions based upon regional observations. There have been some major cyclones in the Pacific this year. What we can say at this point is that the data are inconclusive.
From a prediction standpoint we can say warmer sea surface temperature should produce more and larger cyclones, but there may be other factors at work too. Wind shear is detrimental to cyclone formation. If global warming also increases wind shear in the cyclone areas, one could offset the other. We know El Nino has a significant impact on Atlantic Hurricanes. If the thermohaline circulation changes the El Nino, it could change hurricane frequency and intensity.
Science is not about being "right," it is about advancing our frontier of knowledge and then using that knowledge to our benefit.
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Glacial retreat; across the globe
