Perplexing unemployment math (legal, high school, economy, government)
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According to the BLS payroll jobs data,January 2001 - January 2006, the U.S. economy created 1,050,000 net new private sector jobs and 1,009,000 net new government jobs for a total five-year figure of 2,059,000. Bush' Boom years.
Between 1983 and 1988 (the years when 18 years old of 2001 an 2006 were born) there were roughly 3.2 millions of births per year, i.e. roughly 16 millions reached working age of 18 in 2001-2006. Also, approximately 1 million of emigrants come legally to USA each year. 16+5=21 millions - maximum size of "new" (legal) labor. Approximately 60% of Americans are between ages 20 and 65 thus maximum size of labor force is approximately 180 millions as of 2006.
Therefore, rough estimate of the jobless rate just due to the population growth would give the number (21-2)/180= 10.5%. Yeah, I do realize that many 18 years old go to college, army etc., however, those born in 1979 graduated colleges in 2001 so it doesn't really matter (for a rough estimate). 10.5% jobless rate if we assume that all "older" workers are employed, which is not a realistic assumption at all. Yet, official unemployment numbers were hovering around 5% at the time. Today official unemployment numbers stay at 10%, therefore it's safe to assume that 20% are without work.
According to the BLS payroll jobs data,January 2001 - January 2006, the U.S. economy created 1,050,000 net new private sector jobs and 1,009,000 net new government jobs for a total five-year figure of 2,059,000. Bush' Boom years.
Between 1983 and 1988 (the years when 18 years old of 2001 an 2006 were born) there were roughly 3.2 millions of births per year, i.e. roughly 16 millions reached working age of 18 in 2001-2006. Also, approximately 1 million of emigrants come legally to USA each year. 16+5=21 millions - maximum size of "new" (legal) labor. Approximately 60% of Americans are between ages 20 and 65 thus maximum size of labor force is approximately 180 millions as of 2006.
Therefore, rough estimate of the jobless rate just due to the population growth would give the number (21-2)/180= 10.5%. Yeah, I do realize that many 18 years old go to college, army etc., however, those born in 1979 graduated colleges in 2001 so it doesn't really matter (for a rough estimate). 10.5% jobless rate if we assume that all "older" workers are employed, which is not a realistic assumption at all. Yet, official unemployment numbers were hovering around 5% at the time. Today official unemployment numbers stay at 10%, therefore it's safe to assume that 20% are without work.
Some problems with your assumptions:
As you acknowledged, not all "older" workers are employed.
There are a number of voluntarily unemployed, e.g. stay at home moms, and to a much lesser extent, stay at home dads. There are also a lot of grad students who do not enter the workforce directly from high school or even college.
As you acknowledged, not all "older" workers are employed.
There are a number of voluntarily unemployed, e.g. stay at home moms, and to a much lesser extent, stay at home dads. There are also a lot of grad students who do not enter the workforce directly from high school or even college.
Since I didn't count older voluntarily unemployed, sick, unable to work, my estimate for labor force is 180 millions, if I to accept labor force estimate of Heritage foundation as 138 millions, denominator would be smaller, unemployment % would larger. I do realize that lots of 18-22 years old go to college, trade schools, army, etc. instead of looking for work. However, 22-26 years olds are already graduating and looking for work. Since number of births per year between 1979 and 1988 is around 3 millions per year, numbers of 26 years old graduating grad schools, for example, between 2001-2006 is about the same as the number of those who enter grad school between 2001 an 2006, it just cancels each other out.
Rough estimate is just like this (Max Number of Young Entering Labor Age)/(Max Number of Labor Force).
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