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There is a lot of confusion out there regarding just how good/bad holiday sales were for the 2009 (and 2008) Holiday Season - with a previously posted article saying 2008 sales was the worst drop in 40 (or some other big number) years leading some folks here to claim that sales were knocked back to 1970's levels. That's a complete misreading of the data and the fact is, 2008 sales were really only knocked back to pre-2006 levels (still more than 2005 (or any previous year) though). The 2008 "worst drop" in 40 years (or whatever the number of years was) mentioned referred to the "worst" YOY percentage change (a drop of 3.4% from the previous year) - NOT a return to sales levels of 40 (or whatever it was) years ago.
Here's the final numbers for the 2009 season Holiday Sales as reported by the Nation Retail Federation:
$446.80 Billion (up 1.1% from last years $441.97 Billion).
As can be seen in the attached image, this is more than 2008 but less than 2007 and 2006. It is however, more than 2005 or any of the other previous years listed. In effect, 2009 sales were about midway between those in 2005 and those in 2006 (and slightly more than those in 2008).
"Holiday season ends on high note as sales increase 1.1%, according to NRF
Washington, January 14, 2010 -- In the end, retailers got the best Christmas present of all: a holiday season of gains, not losses. After a year that saw holiday sales decrease by 3.4 percent, retailers bounced back in 2009. According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for December rose 2.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year and fell 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from November.*
As a result, preliminary 2009 holiday sales, which combine the full months of November and December, rose 1.1 percent to $446.8 billion, surpassing NRF's projected decline of 1.0 percent."
2009 still looks weak compared to previous years (except 2008). I would like to know who was claiming 2009 could possibly be worse than 2008, during which we were in the middle of a rather severe economic contraction..
2009 still looks weak compared to previous years (except 2008). I would like to know who was claiming 2009 could possibly be worse than 2008, during which we were in the middle of a rather severe economic contraction..
Not poor compared to "previous years" - just poor compared to 2006 & 2007 (it was better than any year previous to that) - so it depends on what you mean by "previous years". If you just mean 2006 & 2007 then yeah it was. If you mean any years besides those two, then no it wasn't.
Not poor compared to "previous years" - just poor compared to 2006 & 2007 (it was better than any year previous to that) - so it depends on what you mean by "previous years". If you just mean 2006 & 2007 then yeah it was. If you mean any years besides those two, then no it wasn't.
PLENTY more out there. You can find them if you look.
Ken
I am looking at the percents on your chart right now.. 1.1% is the lowest in 10 years aside from last years -3.4%. Please do not tell me you are actually going by the actual $ amount.
And both of those threads are from 2008.. And judging by the responses, they were accurate to predict a drop in the '08 holiday season, your data confirms it.
I am looking at the percents on your chart right now.. 1.1% is the lowest in 10 years aside from last years -3.4%. Please do not tell me you are actually going by the actual $ amount.
And both of those threads are from 2008.. And judging by the responses, they were accurate to predict a drop in the '08 holiday season, your data confirms it.
Opps!
You're right - those are old threads.
Here's one of the one's I SHOULD have posted:
There's relevent posts by BigJon3475 (look at post #80 - among others) and Dane_in_LA (post #64). Other stuff scattered throughout.
Regarding the 1.1% increase being small - absolutely, it WAS a small increase - but it WAS an increase and is STILL better in total sales than all but 2 other years (2006 & 2007).
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 01-18-2010 at 10:56 AM..
No (no years are) - but if they were it would looked even better for 2009. This is because even though the inflation rate adjustment would have driven 2009's numbers down, 2008s numbers would have been driven EVEN LOWER (because 2008's inflation rate was 40% higher than 2009's) so the improvement over 2008 would have been even more than it is with the unadjusted numbers.
the Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales declined 0.3 percent in December compared with November, much weaker than the 0.5 percent rise that economists had been expecting. Excluding autos, sales dropped by 0.2 percent, also weaker than the 0.3 percent rise analyst had forecast.
For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent, the biggest decline on records that go back to 1992. The only other year that annual sales fell was in 2008, when they slipped by 0.5 percent.
The 0.3 percent decline in December was the first setback since September, when sales had fallen 2 percent. Sales posted strong gains of 1.2 percent in October and 1.8 percent in November, raising hopes that the consumer is starting to mount a comeback.
Consumer spending is considered critical to any sustained economic revival since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.
the Commerce Department said Thursday that retail sales declined 0.3 percent in December compared with November, much weaker than the 0.5 percent rise that economists had been expecting. Excluding autos, sales dropped by 0.2 percent, also weaker than the 0.3 percent rise analyst had forecast.
For the year, sales fell 6.2 percent, the biggest decline on records that go back to 1992. The only other year that annual sales fell was in 2008, when they slipped by 0.5 percent.
The 0.3 percent decline in December was the first setback since September, when sales had fallen 2 percent. Sales posted strong gains of 1.2 percent in October and 1.8 percent in November, raising hopes that the consumer is starting to mount a comeback.
Consumer spending is considered critical to any sustained economic revival since consumer spending accounts for 70 percent of total economic activity.
No, the sources say more or less the same thing. Here's what my link says (in the very first paragragh) about December (note that I posted this sentence in my initial post):
"According to the National Retail Federation, retail industry sales (which exclude automobiles, gas stations, and restaurants) for December rose 2.3 percent unadjusted year-over-year and fell 0.5 percent seasonally adjusted from November."
In both years December sales were down from November sales (not sure if that's typical or not) - but in 2009 the COMBINED November/December sales were UP from 2008 - and the December sales in 2009 were UP from the December sales of 2008.
2009 overall was a BAD year for retail - no doubt about it - but clearly that YOY decrease from 2008 sales occured early in 2009, because the last couple of months obviously showed improvement over 2009. So we went from starting out the year WORSE than 2008 (comparing the months in 2009 to the same months in 2008) but ending up the year with the final months in 2009 showing improvement over the same months in 2008.
Ken
Last edited by LordBalfor; 01-18-2010 at 01:17 PM..
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