"Officials Warn al Qaeda 'Certain' to Try Attack Soon"

[mossomo]

Observations:

Israel and America had a closed door meeting last week
We have deployed and increased our weapons platforms in the ME
Bin Laden released a tape last week, which usually predicates an attack
Iran has vowed to demonstrate it's might on 2/11 (aniv of islam revol)
New moon (no moon light) happens 2/14
Obama's popularity is at an all time low, unemployment is an all time high and the economy is in the crapper, sounds like a good time for a distration; war

Seems there is momentum building... We'll see.

[swagger]

It has been STRATFOR’s position for several years that, whether bin Laden is dead or alive, the al Qaeda core has been marginalized by the efforts of the United States and its allies to the point where the group no longer poses a strategic threat.
...
In the years following 9/11, the al Qaeda core has continued to bask in the glory of that spectacularly successful attack, but it has not been able to produce the long-awaited encore. This is not for lack of effort
...
the Yemeni franchise of al Qaeda, al Qaeda in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP), has already claimed responsibility for the attack ... there is little to suggest that bin Laden himself or what remains of al Qaeda’s core leadership has any direct role in planning any of the operations conducted by AQAP.
...
For the al Qaeda core leadership, the price of physical security has been the loss of operational control over the larger movement.
...
This attempt by the al Qaeda core to pander for publicity, even though it means claiming credit for a botched attack, clearly demonstrates how far the core group has fallen since the days when bin Laden blithely denied responsibility for 9/11.

Taking Credit for Failure | STRATFOR

Stratfor's a politically neutral think tank, and they're usually spot-on in their analysis. This article's worth reading in its entirety.