ADP: "unexpected" job loss of 23,000 for March?

[lifelongMOgal]

Originally Posted by subsound

Er, the month isn't even over yet...how do they have all the data for it?

Even then, new unemployment is measured by those who enroll...which usually takes a week or two.

Add to that, this is a private company only involved in payroll processing (only some of them at that)...how do they know? Even if they based it on their own data (that does not reflect the entire economy), they could have taken their processing in house, or employees may have switched to jobs that don't use their service, or any other reason...it's just a wild guess without basis.

Sounds like partisan horse crap again.

Do you ever engage your brain before your fingers hit that keyboard?

[newonecoming]

Originally Posted by lifelongMOgal

Do you ever engage your brain before your fingers hit that keyboard?

Personally sometimes I actually do.

[stillkit]

Hmmmmm. How does ADP look now? Here's the official numbers:


U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March: Unemployment Rate Held Steady at 9.7%

American employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the Labor
Department reported on Friday, in a month when the government
hired thousands of temporary census workers.

The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent, the Labor
Department said, but it is expected to worsen later this year
as discouraged workers re-enter the labor force.

Job losses in February were less severe than the previously
thought; only 14,000 jobs were lost that month, compared with
a preliminary reading of 36,000.

New York Times online

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by stillkit

Excuse me, but this comes from ADP, not the federal government.

Automatic Data Processing, Inc. (Nasdaq: ADP), with nearly $9 billion in revenues and about 570,000 clients, is one of the world's largest providers of business outsourcing solutions.

Maybe those lost jobs are a result of companies outsourcing their work to....ADP.

Wait for the official figures before going off half-cocked.

ADP provides a more objective and reliable figure then "official" numbers IMHO.
If they sell their services then they have skin in the game to be accurate to be of value to their paying customers.
The BLS ?

[golfgod]

Happy Texan wrote;

ADP provides a more objective and reliable figure then "official" numbers IMHO.

OK, that's your OPINION. Do you any historical data to back it up? Instant (end of immediate preceeding month) employment numbers are just like GDP numbers, often WAY OFF and revised later as actual tracked data become available.

If they sell their services then they have skin in the game to be accurate to be of value to their paying customers.

Uh, no. Remember the bond rating outfits had "skin in the game" and didn't bother checking what was in any of the crap that Wall Street was floating out there a few years ago. Since no one is ever going back a few months later and calling out ADP they can be as wrong as they want.

NOTE; I'm not saying they're right or wrong, just that we don't know, and if March's number change drastically in July noone is going to remember or point it out.

[HappyTexan]

Originally Posted by golfgod

Happy Texan wrote;

OK, that's your OPINION. Do you any historical data to back it up? Instant (end of immediate preceeding month) employment numbers are just like GDP numbers, often WAY OFF and revised later as actual tracked data become available.




Uh, no. Remember the bond rating outfits had "skin in the game" and didn't bother checking what was in any of the crap that Wall Street was floating out there a few years ago. Since no one is ever going back a few months later and calling out ADP they can be as wrong as they want.

NOTE; I'm not saying they're right or wrong, just that we don't know, and if March's number change drastically in July noone is going to remember or point it out.

I didn't state my post as fact..I did put "IMHO" after the sentence.

[newonecoming]

Originally Posted by stillkit

Hmmmmm. How does ADP look now? Here's the official numbers:


U.S. Economy Added 162,000 Jobs in March: Unemployment Rate Held Steady at 9.7%

American employers added 162,000 jobs in March, the Labor
Department reported on Friday, in a month when the government
hired thousands of temporary census workers.

The unemployment rate held steady at 9.7 percent, the Labor
Department said, but it is expected to worsen later this year
as discouraged workers re-enter the labor force.

Job losses in February were less severe than the previously
thought; only 14,000 jobs were lost that month, compared with
a preliminary reading of 36,000.

New York Times online

http://boombustblog.com/201001141278/Are-the-Effects-of-Unemployment-About-To-Shoot-Through-the-Roof.html (broken link) Do the words, seasonally adjusted, mean anything to you?