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On that basis, CBO estimates that in the first quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:
Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.2 percent,
Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points,
Increased the number of people employed by between 1.2 million and 2.8 million, and
Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 1.8 million to 4.1 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)
The effects of ARRA on output and employment are expected to increase further during calendar year 2010 but then diminish in 2011 and fade away by the end of 2012.
Gotta love the use of "up to." I'll make "up to" $10 million this year, depending on how extraordinarily loose you look at the probability. I can use the same wide spectrum standards that the CBO uses, right?
Looking at recorded spending to date as well as estimates of the other effects of ARRA on spending and revenues, CBO has estimated the law’s impact on employment and economic output using evidence about the effects of previous similar policies on the economy and using various mathematical models that represent the workings of the economy.
Oh dear.
Quote:
CBO’s estimates differ substantially from the reports filed by recipients of ARRA funding. Those recipients reported that ARRA funded nearly 700,000 FTE jobs during the first quarter of 2010. Such reports, however, do not provide a comprehensive estimate of the law’s impact on employment in the United States.
And we all know just how accurate the counting of those "saved and created" jobs went before.
The administration changed the way they were "counted". Now, any funds that might have funded a position is now "saved or created".
On that basis, CBO estimates that in the first quarter of calendar year 2010, ARRA’s policies:
Raised the level of real (inflation-adjusted) gross domestic product (GDP) by between 1.7 percent and 4.2 percent, Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points,
Increased the number of people employed by between 1.2 million and 2.8 million, and
Increased the number of full-time-equivalent (FTE) jobs by 1.8 million to 4.1 million compared with what those amounts would have been otherwise. (Increases in FTE jobs include shifts from part-time to full-time work or overtime and are thus generally larger than increases in the number of employed workers.)
The effects of ARRA on output and employment are expected to increase further during calendar year 2010 but then diminish in 2011 and fade away by the end of 2012.
/quote
Quote:
Lowered the unemployment rate by between 0.7 percentage points and 1.5 percentage points,
did i miss something....did the unemployment rate drop from 10% to 8.5%...........because according to the GOVERNMENT ITSELF the rate is currently at 9.9%
And we all know just how accurate the counting of those "saved and created" jobs went before.
The administration changed the way they were "counted". Now, any funds that might have funded a position is now "saved or created".
Make sense?
Um, they have to estimate, the project isnt concluded yet.... and yeah, they dont know how to calculate over there at the CBO, do they?
As for "saved and created jobs", just like with the fond fantasy of the liberal perv at Piper's bedroom window, you seem unable to admit the facts: the numbers sent in (and not sent in) were ridiculously confused. the ARRA site has no reason to lie, as that information goes to many, many different agencies and no economic decisions are based on the website's public numbers.
did i miss something....did the unemployment rate drop from 10% to 8.5%...........because according to the GOVERNMENT ITSELF the rate is currently at 9.9%
Not sure what your point is. What's your point?
The fed govt can only do so much toward, ah, stimulating private sector jobs.
How many of the 2.8M are still working? Was the "surge" sustained?
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