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Old 06-04-2010, 02:21 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,944,793 times
Reputation: 7118

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Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
I am still trying to find out about this "failed stimulus" you keep referring to. All I can find is this... somewhere between 2 and 4 mil new jobs. Please correct the CBO for their mistake, I don't think they were applying the Sanrene test, in their evaluations.

http://www.cbo.gov/ftpdocs/115xx/doc...05-25-ARRA.pdf
Maybe you should read the whole thing.

These are just estimates - they have no way to quantify the results.

Last edited by sanrene; 06-04-2010 at 03:14 PM..
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Old 06-04-2010, 02:22 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,944,793 times
Reputation: 7118
obama-supporters - all is well, all is good, this report shows we're on the right track.

Wall St tumbles on jobs data and European worries - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Markets-to-open-sharply-lower-rb-2439122793.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset= &ccode= - broken link)

Quote:
"There's no other way to describe it except flat out disappointing," said Mike O'Rourke, chief market strategist at BTIG LLC in New York. "Once you get beyond the Census numbers, it was abysmal."
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Old 06-04-2010, 02:25 PM
 
Location: Tampa Florida
22,229 posts, read 17,855,263 times
Reputation: 4585
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
Maybe you should read the whole thing.

These are just estimates - they have no one to quantify the results.
Uh ya, your point is?
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Old 06-04-2010, 03:23 PM
 
Location: Chicagoland
41,325 posts, read 44,944,793 times
Reputation: 7118
Quote:
Originally Posted by florida.bob View Post
Uh ya, your point is?
Quote:
Those estimates—which CBO considers more comprehensive
than the recipients’ reports—are based on evidence from similar policies enacted in the past and on the results of various economic models.
There are all kinds of qualifications and warnings throughout the report.

Here is a good series explaining WHY their "estimates" are hogwash;

A Confession from the CBO Director | Cato @ Liberty

Elmendorf admits as much on a video in the above link.

Quote:
After some hemming and hawing and a follow-up question, he confessed “that’s right” when asked if the model would be unable to detect whether the stimulus failed. The relevant exchange begins around the he 39-minute mark of this recording, and Elmendorf’s confession takes place shortly after the 40-minute mark
Listen for yourself.

Keynesian Economics and the Wizard of Oz | Cato @ Liberty
Son of the Stimulus | Cato @ Liberty
If the So-Called Stimulus Was an Unsung Hero, I’d Hate to Meet a Singing Enemy | Cato @ Liberty
Lies, Damned Lies, and CBO Estimates | Cato @ Liberty
More Garbage-In-Garbage-Out from CBO | Cato @ Liberty

And a little trickery goes a long way too;

http://cnsnews.com/news/article/67156 (broken link)

Quote:
The U.S. Census purposefully hired more workers than it needed, telling the Office of the Inspector General of the Commerce Department that it did so as a “cost-saving measure,” according to a memorandum that Todd J. Zinser of the inspector general’s office sent to Census Bureau Director Robert Groves last week.

“According to Census,” said Zinser’s May 26 memo to Groves, “‘frontloading’ its workforce (i.e. hiring and training more enumerators than necessary to offset turnover) is a cost-saving measure.” The inspector general’s memo, however, suggested that in at least one Census Bureau operation excessive staff had increased the “cost of operations” and that in another operation deployment of an unnecessarily large number of workers "increased the operation’s direct labor and travel costs."
It's free money though...right?

http://gatewaypundit.firstthings.com/wp-content/uploads/2010/06/Unemployment-May-2010.jpg (broken link)

Last edited by sanrene; 06-04-2010 at 03:45 PM..
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:25 PM
 
Location: The Republic of Texas
78,863 posts, read 46,624,265 times
Reputation: 18521
They are boasting about putting federal stimulus money to work here in Austin, building a new Federal Courthouse, downtown. "lots of people and jobs for Austin citizens".
Then they show the ILLEGAL ALIENS, doing the work.... Yes, they were illegals! They had to translate for the interviewed worker.
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:35 PM
 
1,650 posts, read 3,864,927 times
Reputation: 1133
Quote:
Originally Posted by Jadex View Post
I worry about when the Census work ends and taxes goes up next year.
This economy is an absolute nightmare and the government is only making things worse. They are passing new taxes and want even more new taxes. If Obama has his way, our electricity bills will "necessarily skyrocket." The government also wants a carbon tax, VAT tax, tax on businesses. Businesses are worried they can't afford the Universal Nightmare(a.k.a Obamacare).

Not to mention the government's failure to secure the border. I wonder how many of those private sector jobs went to illegal immigrants.

I am so sick of this bad economy.
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Old 06-04-2010, 04:38 PM
 
1,650 posts, read 3,864,927 times
Reputation: 1133
Quote:
Originally Posted by BentBow View Post
They are boasting about putting federal stimulus money to work here in Austin, building a new Federal Courthouse, downtown. "lots of people and jobs for Austin citizens".
Then they show the ILLEGAL ALIENS, doing the work.... Yes, they were illegals! They had to translate for the interviewed worker.
It makes me angry that these places hire ILLEGAL ALIENS. It seems like every week or two I hear about our sheriff in Phoenix raiding a business that is employing illegals.
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Old 06-04-2010, 05:12 PM
 
Location: San Francisco, CA
15,088 posts, read 13,450,610 times
Reputation: 14266
Guys, let's set the politics aside and just reason with the facts. By any measure, the jobs report is disappointing. There is a reason why the Dow is down 320 points today.

When most recessions end, they feature more robust growth and an upswing in hiring. This recession is different and, as many economic minds have feared, there isn't much growth coming out of this one. Instead of a quick rebound, we're looking at sluggish, slow recovery with a prolonged period of high unemployment. We may be in for a period of economic stagnation like Japan's "lost decade". The fact is that losses are still not fully realized throughout the world for the prolonged spending binge we just all went through - one look at Europe should tell you that.

Markets are not stupid, and they're not going to be fooled by temporary employment numbers. Savvy market participants will look at the private sector, and going from 218,000 new jobs in April to 41,000 in May is just not going to be interpreted as good news. Yes, the bottom is not falling out anymore, but it's going to be a big hill to climb to get back to where we were.
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Old 06-04-2010, 06:27 PM
 
69,368 posts, read 64,108,083 times
Reputation: 9383
Quote:
Originally Posted by sanrene View Post
obama-supporters - all is well, all is good, this report shows we're on the right track.

Wall St tumbles on jobs data and European worries - Yahoo! Finance (http://finance.yahoo.com/news/Markets-to-open-sharply-lower-rb-2439122793.html?x=0&sec=topStories&pos=main&asset= &ccode= - broken link)
It does indeed seem to be Obama supporters trying to find good news in every report while accusing Obama bashers of trying to find the bad out of the facts.
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Old 06-04-2010, 06:50 PM
 
9,803 posts, read 16,191,954 times
Reputation: 8266
I question any statistic that states unemployment is worse than 8%

Obama said his stimulus bills would prevent unemployment from dropping to 8%

The bail outs and stimulus passed.

I believe Obama. (sarc)
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