Will PDX reach Bay area prices eventually? (Portland: transplants, real estate market)

[trysometh]

Seattle is catching up quick. What about Portland? Can anything stop cost of living increase?

[Yankeemama]

No Portland won't because it can't attract a variety of industries because we have no world class universities here. We also don't have the kind of tourism that SF has. Portland is also more isolated than SF Bay Area. Portland needs to grow smart and keep its identity unlike Seattle which became corporate quickly. Seattle is breathtakingly beautiful though.

[oregonwoodsmoke]

Probably Portland will get up to what the Bay Area prices are right now, but in the meantime, the Bay Area prices will have climbed considerably. Portland will never catch up, it will just be a race with Portland always running behind.

[The Global Citizen]

Seattle isn't really catching up. Redfin just released a study that highlighted the vast difference between Seattle and San Francisco. Portland is actually closing on Seattle. Nobody will catch the Bay Area. It has a built-in economic driver that rivals no one. The high salaries also normalize the cost of real estate. That's why people keep moving there in groves.

[Bluesmama]

Originally Posted by oregonwoodsmoke

Probably Portland will get up to what the Bay Area prices are right now, but in the meantime, the Bay Area prices will have climbed considerably. Portland will never catch up, it will just be a race with Portland always running behind.

This was my thought, too.

[CanuckInPortland]

I doubt Portland will catch Seattle's prices anytime soon, Seattle's real estate market is still climbing(up 16% last year) and about as hot as Portland. The Bay Area is still seeing prices climb and still way above both Portland and Seattle for the time being.

Also though it depends if you're comparing the City of Seattle vs. City of Portland or the entire metro areas. Portland Metro area might close the gap with Seattle, but take into account that the Seattle Metro contains a bigger area than Portland Metro and a wide range of socioeconomic conditions everywhere from rich suburbs like Bellevue to more working class places like Tacoma and Federal Way and Kent. The cost of housing in Seattle itself is still a bit higher in terms of average cost than Portland, the median cost is about $200,000 more.

[AnotherPDXGuy]

Portland will not catch up with either. Our economy (gross metropolitan product) is less than half either of those places. SF has obscene levels of wealth for smart/lucky tech workers, all looking for a place on a tiny penninsula. Seattle is also home to some of the biggest companies on the planet.

Our cost of living growth is extreme, but short of the next Apple or Amazon being founded here, our economy won't catch us up to those places in incomes or prices.

[trysometh]

So yall think COL will slow down at least or its gon keep growing until the bubble bursts?

[MN_Ski]

Originally Posted by trysometh

So yall think COL will slow down at least or its gon keep growing until the bubble bursts?

Poking my head in from Denver.

I think that Seattle, Portland, Denver, and even Austin, are experiencing a sharp increase in COL because of their current job growth. The jobs came in faster than the inventory of housing. Right now, these cities are experiencing a catch up phase. The cities were "lucky" enough to become popular destinations during the recession, so they were targeted first for new jobs.

Job creation doesn't last forever. Neither does home appreciation. You can blame the rise of COL on transplants all you want, but the real reason people keep moving is because of jobs. I can see other cities starting to gain their footing within the next few years, which would help cool off the currently on fire job market.

I wouldn't expect home prices to ever get to the level they were in 2008-2012, but a plateau in the job market should be on it's way in a few years. Once that happens, it will allow the market to do it's thing, adding inventory while experiencing a slower growth rate, which should bring back more dynamic pricing to the home/apartment market. The $2,000+ "lux" apartments will always be there, but you will hopefully be able to start seeing the apartments that should be less then $1,000, actually go for that price.

[StealthRabbit]

Reach ? Yes, PDX has reached CA Bay RE prices many times.

PDX Equal SF Bay ? Never !! It takes well paying jobs to support high prices, PDX is no longer known for high paying jobs for the majority of workers, as it was during manufacturing and invention era. This is the price of a 'service economy', Thousands of very poorly paid servants bowing to the much fewer rich elite.

The evil 2 class society of ancient history... Has arrived in Portland.

Some have it.... Most do not. (Worker bees are expendable, they have a very short life span, ask any worker bee... )

Queens, = yrs
Drones (pundits and minions) = used for a season / very fixed longevity based on their useful and supportive results.
Workers = a few weeks.... They are expendable.

Just like people in the middle ages.