Are home prices falling in Oregon? (Portland, Tigard: live, suburbs, relocation)

[texasdiver]

The closest thing you will get to the Portland West Hills and Lake Oswego area in Texas would perhaps be the Westlake area to the west of downtown Austin.

The closest thing to McKinney/Frisco in the Pacific Northwest would be the Samammish Plateau area east of Bellevue WA. But the suburbs in the Pacific Northwest are just nowhere near as large and sprawling as they are in Texas. There are really no Pacific Northwest equivalents to the big suburban TX cities like McKinney, Allen, Katy, Woodlands, etc. Nothing happens on that scale up here because there simply isn't that sort of available land for new development. It's all in much smaller pockets.

[ccjarider]

Originally Posted by LongLeggedOne

Good, they need a taste of it.


Also, I see TX as a much better place to live for someone like me, who lives in an expensive town, but is just lucky, cant afford it living at home with mi mom and stepdad who has the ties in the area.I fit with nobody in the area it dont seem like. Its as if these millennial hipsters are now having kids and acting lame. I dunno what to call it dude. Even boomers in their 30s were cooler than these ones I see now. I dunno what to call these people, whitebread perhaps...oh no wait that is it...



Dallas is on my list. If I picture aniwhere in TX to be like Portlands west side, its McKinney Id imagine. Might be a FTW suburb or 2 also.. New Braunfels? I grew up lower middle class and Italian/Irish in the NE so I cant relate to much going on in the area and not on others level.

Is it just me or does it seem like the mushrooms kicked in about the time this post was being written?

[mathlete]

Things may change in the Oregon housing market when the economy goes over the Covid bankruptcy cliff in the coming months:

A Tidal Wave of Bankruptcies Is Coming - New York Times, June 18, 2020

Edward I. Altman, the creator of the Z score, a widely used method of predicting business failures, estimated that this year will easily set a record for so-called mega bankruptcies — filings by companies with $1 billion or more in debt. And he expects the number of merely large bankruptcies — at least $100 million — to challenge the record set the year after the 2008 economic crisis.

[pnwguy2]

I think the value of real estate may dip a bit but for the most part will remain healthy. If you are looking to sell it perhaps is not a great time, but my real estate friends tell me things are not that bad and people are still buying and selling through the crisis.

[MtnSurfer]

Originally Posted by pnwguy2

I think the value of real estate may dip a bit but for the most part will remain healthy. If you are looking to sell it perhaps is not a great time, but my real estate friends tell me things are not that bad and people are still buying and selling through the crisis.

The Feds lowering of the interest rate is really helping with any perceived or real economic downturns. And that is the purpose of those adjustments to counterbalance the negative economic impacts of covid. Obviously there will still be long term negative economic affects. But at the same time, there are some strong incentives to take the plunge into home ownership now even during a crisis such as this. For those with relatively stable jobs and incomes, they have been waiting to make such moves and investments. We're thinking of refi'ing with such record low rates.

If there is a temporary dip in values, I don't see it impacting the greater Portland area as much due to the higher demand discussed. That said, the real estate market constantly moves through natural up/down cycles. No one has a crystal ball seeing what the next year+ will hold. I am predicting if any sort of small correction occurs, it will turn around pretty quickly thereafter. There are always investors waiting for that sort of thing to snatch up properties and flip them as the market turns back up again.

Derek

[Discovery1]

Originally Posted by 2Z4

No. Prices have approached a temporary plateau. There are still hordes of Californians moving here from the Bay area and other locales - they sold their million dollar houses and are up here paying cash. There are also the mainland Chinese who were chased out of Vancouver B.C. So it all seems cheap to them. There is virtually no new construction in the Portland Metro area for under $500K. The land supply and housing supply has been restricted for years by the UGB, hefty building and SDC fees, and heavy governmental regulations. Portland is still the cheapest major metro area on the west coast. I believe it would take a nation-wide correction of 25% for Portland to be impacted at this point.

Your point is correct for last few years but not anymore. It started to slow for the last 5,6 months now as i see more and more people moving to Phoenix, AZ and some to Boise, ID.
Wage no longer support the COL in Portland so there is no surprise people are leaving.
I believed the outflow trend has started.

As for the Op question..... I would sell Portland and buy Phoenix.

[Nell Plotts]

I wouldn't buy Phoenix because of water and summer extreme heat. Buy Boise and environs.

[2Z4]

Originally Posted by Discovery1

Your point is correct for last few years but not anymore. It started to slow for the last 5,6 months now as i see more and more people moving to Phoenix, AZ and some to Boise, ID.
Wage no longer support the COL in Portland so there is no surprise people are leaving.
I believed the outflow trend has started.

As for the Op question..... I would sell Portland and buy Phoenix.

I wish that were the case. Bidding wars here, houses being sold in hours to Californians paying cash. I've been experiencing it within the last 6 months trying to buy another house. And now with the rioting and shootings in the inner core, overpriced stuff past the suburbs is heating up. It was already inflated because of all the out of state marijuana growers/conglomerates setting up their supply lines, two different friends of mine within the last month told me they can't get what they're looking for - small acreage in the sticks - for less than 700K even with a crap-shack on it. So they're leaving. A lot of native residents I know are taking off soon.

[LongLeggedOne]

Originally Posted by texasdiver

Pandemic-related unemployment is striking the working class far more severely than the professional class who mostly have kept their jobs and are working from home. It is the upper middle professional class who are the primary market for real estate in Portland as few working class folks can afford to buy houses, even during the best of times. Heck, many of them can barely afford rent.

So that doesn't really surprise me. We are living in two separate worlds divided by class, and the pandemic is only making that more obvious.

The professional class is all over Sherwood where I live at. I dont find a lot of them stand up people tbh. A lot of them are hermits and dont speak to people. Give me a working class neighborhood over what I see here. I grew up in working class neighborhoods in the Northeast so this species is foreign to me and I have to be segregated from a lot of them. Plus a lot of privileged babies in these parts who speed.. go over the limit A LOT in school zones. So if these are the people coming in, the next volcano is coming soon.

[LongLeggedOne]

Originally Posted by 2Z4

No. Prices have approached a temporary plateau. There are still hordes of Californians moving here from the Bay area and other locales - they sold their million dollar houses and are up here paying cash. There are also the mainland Chinese who were chased out of Vancouver B.C. So it all seems cheap to them. There is virtually no new construction in the Portland Metro area for under $500K. The land supply and housing supply has been restricted for years by the UGB, hefty building and SDC fees, and heavy governmental regulations. Portland is still the cheapest major metro area on the west coast. I believe it would take a nation-wide correction of 25% for Portland to be impacted at this point.

Wow so a lot of Vancouver Canada is exporting their jerks to these parts now?