Influx is greater than the exodus (Portland, Bend: sales, real estate market, renters)

[MtnSurfer]

Regardless of social media myths of mass exodus, more people are moving into PDX than leaving.

Portland average home prices jumped to $542,000 due to higher demand vs. lower inventory.

“A 5.3% [average sale price] appreciation in a month? For February? Are you kidding me?” asks Dustin Miller of Windermere Realty Trust in Lake Oswego after reviewing the February RMLS report. “Last we did near that for the average price was March 2016 and the median price [which increased 4.2%] did that last in March 2020. This is real estate in the new era. If you blink, it moves.”

"Most homeowners are receiving multiple offers within the first couple of days, and potential buyers whose offers were not accepted continue to search, with new buyers joining the line, say experts."

https://www.oregonlive.com/realestat...he-exodus.html

[karlsch]

The article doesn't mention more people moving into Portland than moving out. (Whether this is true or not, I don't know.) It is about the influx to the real estate market:

The limited amount of residential properties available “continues to backlog our buyers, creating this crazy, pent-up demand,” says Page. “And I don’t see it slowing down. Overall, the influx to the Portland metro real estate market is greater than the exodus out.”

This is happening all around the United States, not just Portland.

[blazenjames]

People are leaving Portland at an ever increasing rate. Higher home prices are mostly renters panic buying.

[JackieLovesSun]

Regardless of social media myths of mass exodus, more people are moving into PDX than leaving.

yep. I live 90 minutes away but housing prices are going nowhere but up here, too.

[texasdiver]

The actual population data is collected and reported by the Oregon Office of Economic Analysis (and of course the Census). What do they say? The blog post from that agency is dated January 6, 2021 and finds: https://oregoneconomicanalysis.com/2...rowth-in-2020/

Let’s start first with the latest population estimates from our friends at Portland State’s Population Research Center. In 2020, Oregon’s population was 4,268,055 which is an increase of nearly 32,000 compared to 2019. This is the smallest annual increase since 2012 and continues the slowdown seen in recent years. That said, our office’s post-COVID forecast was for an increase of around 29,000, which called for a little bit sharper slowdown due to the pandemic and recession. Keep in mind this is total population growth so while net migration is the vast majority of growth, it does include births and deaths as well.

Now what you need to know here is that Portland State does a mid-year, July 1st estimate. So that means the numbers incorporate everything that happened in the second half of 2019 up through the pandemic and early summer. We know people didn’t move much during the shelter in place phase of the cycle. Furthermore, to the extent the recent boom in home sales represents a pick up in migration, that won’t be reflected until the 2021 estimates are available around next Thanksgiving. It’ll be awhile.



Another complicating factor here is the 2020 Census. That data has been delayed and as far as I can tell Census is saying the numbers will be released as close to Dec 31st, 2020 as possible. That likely means any day or week now. Why this matters is that the decennial census always acts as a demographic anchoring point. Once it is known, demographers will go back and revise the 2011-2019 data — what are called intercensal years — to make sure it all lines up and fits nicely between the 2010 and 2020 Census figures. Additionally Census does April 1st estimates so the number also won’t include any post-shelter in place migration trends.

Now, we will get the 2020 American Community Survey data in September 2021. That’s a continuous survey so will include responses from before, during, and after the shelter in place phase of the cycle. The ACS is the best place to get the characteristics of migrants (age, income, educational attainment, etc). But, again, it’ll be awhile.

With that said, let’s take a closer look at the 2020 estimates from Portland State. Overall, all regions of the state continued to see population growth, lead by the East Cascades and Portland metro regions. Specifically, 31 out of our 36 counties saw increases. This is a pick up from the 27 gaining population a couple of years ago. The population gains in the past decade, while uneven in the sense urban areas are growing faster, have been more broad-based across counties than in recent cycles.

Which basically says what most people already know. Central Oregon centered on the Bend area is seeing the greatest population growth in the state with the Portland metro area in second place.

You can follow the link and find a lot of individual county data like this. For Portland you can scroll down and find that while the rate of population growth has fallen off since 2018, the city is still growing at a rate of about 1% per year through 2020. Only Deschutes and Washington Counties are growing faster than Multnomah.

[MtnSurfer]

I found that when people are leaving a place, any place, they tend to focus on 'all the others leaving' as well. Its like confirmation bias. The same thing happens in the CA forum. Many of the folks leaving create a bunch of 'CA is going to hell in handbasket' type posts right before moving. 'Its falling into the ocean with its crazy liberals and dysfunctional gov't, homeless gone wild in the streets, overpriced RE, etc...' Their final rants before leaving to their next Shangri la utopian state with no problems of its own.

With many exaggerations, there can be some truth as well. No one is denying that. My favorite PNW exaggeration is perhaps that you never see the sun except during two months out the year. Granted, the entire west coast has its socioeconomic issues whether WA, OR or CA. But they aren't falling into the ocean along with some mass exodus simply because you may know some who are leaving.

The fact remains that more people are coming into Portland than leaving and it will continue to grow both as a city and the greater metro area. Like Texasdiver's number show above, Portland and Bend are growing the fastest statewide.

"Population growth consists of two factors: natural increase (the number of births minus the number of deaths) and net migration (people moving in minus people moving out that includes international and domestic movements). From 2019 to 2020, net migration accounted for roughly 90 percent of Oregon’s population growth. Due to an aging population and declining birth rates, births to Oregon residents outnumbered deaths by only about 3,000.

The number of people moving to Oregon exceeded the number moving out by over 28,000. While this is close to the average of the past 20 years, annual net migration has decreased each year since peaking at nearly 57,000 in 2017. The full impact of COVID-19 on migration rates has yet to be seen, but migration to Oregon typically slows during recessions marked by high unemployment rates. "

PSU’S POPULATION RESEARCH CENTER RELEASES PRELIMINARY OREGON POPULATION ESTIMATES

Derek