Housing construction is booming in Prescott, Prescott Valley!!!!! (Phoenix, Chino Valley: sales, 2014)

[autism360]

Get ready to meet your new neighbors.

Don't start cooking the welcome meal, as they're not here just yet. In fact, their houses don't even exist.

But make no mistake about it: They are coming. By the scores, hundreds, thousands ...

Prescott and Prescott Valley have started off the year with a bang - the bang of hammers. New houses are going up on what were once untouched hilltops and grassy valleys.

As impressive as a community of 2,000-plus might be, that's less than one-third the size of Glassford Heights, just four mile east of the Dells. Though still in its infancy, construction at Glassford Heights is scheduled to begin in the coming months.

Beginning where Granville ends, Glassford Heights is a Prescott Valley development that last year was approved for 3,600 homes on 1,200 acres.

The Prescott Daily Courier Mobile

Looks like the Prescott area is getting ready to explode again.

[BriansPerspective]

Over the past three years, the entire Prescott area has averaged 3,200 residential sales per year. At the peak of the market in '04 and '05, there were 3,900 sales per year. (Many of those sales were speculation purchases with no one actually living in the homes, which in part led to the crash.) Existing home sales are a wash for population, because someone is leaving and someone is coming. So, the only increase would be the portion of those sales which are new-builds. In 2014, the number of new-builds was about 300. Additionally, there are new-build sales that are not recorded in the MLS. If we assume that the number is another 300, then we have 600 new homes per year. That would be 6,000 new homes in 10 years. If we assume 3 people per house, then we have 18,000 new people in ten years. The total population in the entire Prescott area is a little more than 100,000. So, this would suggest about a 20% increase in population over 10 years.

[6.7traveler]

Why do they continue to build when they will face water problems in the future? The cities are "growth at all costs" with little care on where the water will come from... Oh well keep this impact fees rolling in and worry about the water later, it's no big deal.

[BriansPerspective]

Every city in the southwest has grown despite the available local water supply. The reality is that all southwestern cities eventually import water from other areas. In the case of Prescott, the water will most likely be imported from the Big Chino Aquifer, which is an ocean as compared to the size of the Little Chino Aquifer where we currently draw our water. The Prescott area has done a very good job at conservation. 99% of the yards are rock instead of grass. The opposite is true in Los Angeles, which imports all of its water. The Phoenix area also has a lot of grass, and uses far more water per capita than the Prescott area.

[BriansPerspective]

Originally Posted by 6.7traveler

Oh well keep this impact fees rolling in and worry about the water later, it's no big deal.

Town governments do not get rich through impact fees, by the way. Impact fees only pay for new infrastructure that is necessary to support the new housing. Arizona homebuilders hail law easing impact fees

Most town governments rely on sales tax for their income. Of course, with more houses and more people, sales taxes likely grow. In the case of Prescott Valley, more houses means that larger retail stores build within the city limits, and PV benefits from the larger tax base. Prescott Valley's tax base has ballooned with the recent additions of Khol's, Walmart, Dick's, Sprouts, and TJ Max. Many Prescott Valley residents were previously driving into Prescott for their shopping. They are now keeping their tax dollars in Prescott Valley.

Prescott charges a property tax as well. Prescott Valley does not. However, Prescott Valley has a fire department property tax, whereas that is included as part of the Prescott property tax.

[6.7traveler]

^ Good responses... I disagree that the majority of people in Prescott are water conscious though. Maybe some people, but there is a lot of water wasting going on there as well. I own property over the big chino and have seen some old depth markers of the water level drop pretty dramatically over the years. I don't think the water situation is all sunshine and roses by any means, especially with continued growth.

I don't think the population increasing is a good thing at all. The prescott metro area is growing, whether I like it or not, but I think the continued growth takes away from the charm that Prescott once had. Oh well, my nightmare is another person's dream. Hopefully they figure the water situation out, and keep the growth smart and to a minimum.

[smilinpretty]

I agree with you Traveler. The Developers want to rape the Big Chino Aquifer that supplies the water to Verde River. Government survey indicated that within time if the water was used to supply Prescott Valley, there will be no Verde River. The water markers are going down. That ocean will turn into a dry bed if building continues and it is all in the name of $$$.

[6.7traveler]

^ It is nice to see I am not the only one who sees the water situation for what it is in Prescott. A lot of the "growth is great" people seem to think water is an endless resource in the desert. It will probably last for their lifetime, but eventually the day of reckoning will come. I don't care what all the water experts say, when you pull up old ranch well depth markers and have seen them personally drop over 100 feet over the years that is scary. IF everyone moving in was water conscious, Prescott would be in better shape. Unfortunately that is the exception rather than the norm. Most people pretend it's the Midwest and have green lawns, lots of non native trees and landscaping, etc. I worked as a plumber in Prescott and worked on someone's irrigation system in Williamson valley that used 20,000 gallons of water a month. This was not agricultural use, and they lived there for only several months a year. In comparison, I used approx 600-800 gallons a month for a family of 4. When prescott and prescott valley get a hold of the big chino water, it is only the beginning of the end. Get in while the gettin is good ya'll, let our kids and grand kids worry about the minor issues like water supply, keep building at all costs. Got to keep the economy going and people working!

[autism360]

Originally Posted by BriansPerspective

Over the past three years, the entire Prescott area has averaged 3,200 residential sales per year. At the peak of the market in '04 and '05, there were 3,900 sales per year. (Many of those sales were speculation purchases with no one actually living in the homes, which in part led to the crash.) Existing home sales are a wash for population, because someone is leaving and someone is coming. So, the only increase would be the portion of those sales which are new-builds. In 2014, the number of new-builds was about 300. Additionally, there are new-build sales that are not recorded in the MLS. If we assume that the number is another 300, then we have 600 new homes per year. That would be 6,000 new homes in 10 years. If we assume 3 people per house, then we have 18,000 new people in ten years. The total population in the entire Prescott area is a little more than 100,000. So, this would suggest about a 20% increase in population over 10 years.

Does that include the entire Prescott area meaning the quadcities of Dewey,Prescott Valley,Chino Valley and Prescott?

Also another factor was that the Prescott area did not have all the creature comforts that it has now which to me makes a big difference. Most folks want a little rural with access to multiple shopping areas, restaurants,event center,Home Depot ,Lowes,super Walmarts etc. which has sprouted since the 2006 meltdown. These creature comforts will draw folks that never would have considered the area before.

If the Del Rio project got resurrected for example that could draw 15,000 people in 1 project.


I think doubling is a stretch but not impossible but I think only a 20% increase is far to conservative.

[jamies]

Importing water from Big Chino. The way things are going they'd better start figuring out to pump it over the rockies from the Mississippi, or down from the Columbia cause that's about the closest water. And I doubt the Oregon tree huggers are going to give it up without a fight. So lock and load!