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How high would you guys look at Cam? I'm thinking higher than most... I'm drafting 7 of 12 and I'm taking him if he is there.. Crazy?
Not a chance in hell I would do that. I think the odds are overwhelming he would be there with your second pick. And I certainly would not draft him higher than Brees/Brady/Rogers and one of them will almost certainly be there at 7.
Not a chance in hell I would do that. I think the odds are overwhelming he would be there with your second pick. And I certainly would not draft him higher than Brees/Brady/Rogers and one of them will almost certainly be there at 7.
I figure Rodgers and Brady will def be gone by then. I think most drafts are going to have a QB rush moreso than usual this year, and I don't think Cam would be there in the mid second round.
When considering Newton’s rookie season, there are statistical anomalies that raise red flags. His 14 rushing TDs are an aberration. He will be hard-pressed to reach half that total this year, particularly with the acquisition of Mike Tolbert. Also, one must look at the last 11 games and realize that his completion % was under 55. Steve Smith is going to get locked back down this year, and there isn’t another proven commodity for him to throw to, like for instance, the way Romo uses Jason Witten. Ron Rivera is going to want Newton to use his legs less because you don’t want your franchise absorbing multiple blows in a game like a running back.
Then there’s the matter of the divisional rivals. The NFC South is going to be the toughest in football this year. In addition, the Panthers have to play the NFC East and the AFC West. I look for the Chiefs to rebound, the Redskins defense is going to be good, none of these games looks like a ‘gimme’. I don’t even like the games against the Bears or the Seahawks, for that matter.
It’s best to look at how the team might finish, and while this is the sexy pick, I am thinking they might bottom out in the NFC South this year, as the Bucs had a great off-season. Newton is going to be an upper echelon QB, but look for him to back-slide this year on the order of Sam Bradford. First year successes do not automatically build in their second seasons. Compound this theory with the statistical aberrations that Newton had in 2011. I am seeing a 3200-3500 yard passing season, maybe another 400-500 yards rushing, 20 passing TDs and another 4 TDs rushing, and that’s assuming he stays healthy 16 games.
Thought provoking analysis Mike... I'm not sure I agree on the impact of Tolbert being that great, and I don't feel the same way about the NFC south. Atlanta is soft, New Orleans isn't going to shut Cam down when they play and TB isn't high on my power rankings even with their offseason.... Also, the AFC west is garbage
Hey, I'm not saying you are wrong, BUT, I will take the over on 3200 yds passing, and way, way, way over on 4 tds rushing. Bet ya a rep point on each
I group players into tiers and, imo, Cam hasn't cracked into the first-tier, first-round quality Brady-Brees-Rodgers ... yet.
I've lumped him into the second-tier of QBs along with Stafford, Vick, Roeth, Romo, etc. that round out the top-10 that do not warrant first-round consideration.
Thought provoking analysis Mike... I'm not sure I agree on the impact of Tolbert being that great, and I don't feel the same way about the NFC south. Atlanta is soft, New Orleans isn't going to shut Cam down when they play and TB isn't high on my power rankings even with their offseason.... Also, the AFC west is garbage
Hey, I'm not saying you are wrong, BUT, I will take the over on 3200 yds passing, and way, way, way over on 4 tds rushing. Bet ya a rep point on each
You are on Orangeish!
I can almost assure you that Cam isn't going to amass 14 rushing TDs this year. 1st level fantasy RBs don't achieve this more than a time or two in their careers. You say he's going over 4 TDs, though! I look at running QBs and their TD rushes year to year, and they are all over the place. You can say Peterson or Foster is certain to be around 8-13 TD rushes, but a running QB can have 9 rushing TDs one season, then 1 the next. (This was actually the case with Vick from 2010 to 2011)
I figure Rodgers and Brady will def be gone by then. I think most drafts are going to have a QB rush moreso than usual this year, and I don't think Cam would be there in the mid second round.
I'd take Cam over Brees
Obviously every draft is different. But if you look at any site that does mock drafts the chances are he will be there with your second pick and possibly your third.
And if Rogers/Brady/Brees were all gone by pick 7 that would mean one of Foster/Rice/McCoy/Megatron were available. I would take whoever that was and be very happy.
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