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I don't disagree at all with your opinion of Brees. He absolutely deserves to be a first ballot HOFer. I also don't disagree with your opinion of Ben. I just don't think the HOF committee will share that opinion. I think he gets in first or second year. But I would love to see him wait longer. Reasons other than statistical reasons why I think he gets in first or second year:
1. He's a Steeler. One of the darling teams of the NFL. For example, I didn't think Jerome Bettis would ever get in. Well he made it in just four years. Relatively quickly IMO, since I thought he may never make it in with his 3.9 ypc career average and all while offering next to nothing as a receiving threat.
2. He plays with a very unique style. Standing in the pocket waiting far longer than a QB should. He is viewed by many as a "tough" QB despite missing many games as you have pointed out. Where as guys like Eli and Rivers have missed zero games since becoming starters. It's obvious which QBs are really the tough QBs but perception is greater than reality.
3. He's been the starting QB in 3 super bowls. He's won two super bowls as a starting QB.
4. He has a catchy nickname, "Big Ben" that people seem to like. Maybe that also helped "The Bus" get in?
Again, hope I am wrong but I would be shocked if he is not in by year two. And I would not be shocked at all if he makes it on his first year of eligibility.
Agreed, Big Ben likely will get in the HoF. The combo of 2 SB wins (though he played poorly in one of them), very good if not transcendent regular season stats, and being a Steeler should do it.
Whether he's first ballot or not is another question. If he comes up in a really weak year for first timers like Jim Kelly did, he might sneak through. My guess is he's in for a good couple years wait but is elected eventually.
Drew Brees should be first ballot, and deservedly so.
If Brees retired today after 16 seasons, he's a first ballot lock. There are only two other locks still playing currently--Ben ain't one of them. And we already believe the HOF process to be flawed--if BOTH Ben and Brees get in on the first try, the HOF is basically telling us they were equals, and I'd never take the HOF seriously again. Ben is good, he'll get there. Not in the same stratosphere as Brees, though, player-to-player...
While I don't care much at all what the Hall does, the above claim is silly.
Being inducted on the first ballot merely indicates that one, in the opinion of the voters, clears the threshold for induction on the first ballot. One player may clear it by a lot, while another player may barely clear it.
I mean, Dan Fouts and Warren Moon were first ballot inductees, and you'll find precious few people who think that they are the equal of another first ballot guy, Johnny Unitas. I mean, if you're going to be upset over a prospective situation of Roethlisberger and Brees both getting in at their first cracks at he Hall, why not already be upset at Fouts and Moon being considered 'equals' by the Hall? (your logic, by the way, not mine)
You might as well claim that all single season MVPs, or Rookies of the Year, are being called equal in their performances by the voting organizations that select them. Such a claim would be no less silly.
Note:
This is not a post calling Roethlisberger first ballot worthy. It's a post pointing out that your argument is specious.
if BOTH Ben and Brees get in on the first try, the HOF is basically telling us they were equals.
Not necessarily. Some first ballot folks were no-brainer greats: Jim Brown, Johnny Unitas, Walter Payton, Jerry Rice, Reggie White, Lawrence Taylor, Anthony Munoz, and many more. But others were the best available first timer on the ballot in a weak overall year: Jackie Slater, Jim Kelly, Darrell Green. And still others were second best among first timers in a relatively weak year and got through: Jason Taylor, Dan Fouts, Warren Moon.
There's no one distinction here.
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