First, I am glad to see the NFL back in full swing, sort of, with preseason and league mandated Covid Protocols in place. The most important thing to me right now is people's health.
This year has been like a litter box here at the Cat's house. With Covid hospitalizations (pneumonia), the mom fighting cancer, the relatives trying to IRK each other off, the brutal hot summer.....In spite of it all, those who know me point out that I am the best at making good of any bad situation, and keeping up a positive outlook, even sometimes to the point of being entertained by things like football.... I am reminded of the poem, the
Optimist (author unknown)
THE OPTIMIST fell ten stories.
At each window bar
He shouted to his friends:
" All right so far. "
I certainly, like many others, need football, that escape, that entertainment, that chance to enjoy something from beginning to end, to play fantasy games, make picks weekly, read reviews and watch commentary shows. Although the best reviews are often the one's here.
And I get great entertainment from making my NFL picks on here, and I think some get entertainment in one way or another reading them, whether right on or not
And seriously, I have a pretty Good Life. I enjoy life, family, friends, football, travels....Things may not be perfect, but they could always be worse. And I like to move on with the good things in life.
I have been pretty accurate with a few exceptions....I did not see the Eagles or Buccaneers winning Super Bowls, but I did peg the Chiefs, the Patriots and Seahawks on occasion. I also picked the Pesky red birds to make the Super Bowl although that pick was a year too early, same with the Saints....right team, next season....
I have been looking at several trends, commentaries, injuries (which I abhor and wish were not part of the game) and schedules. I have reviewed Vegas Odds, which are not an accurate pick of who will win, but rather an
actuarial formula of how bettors will best lose money to the bookies and casinos. Vegas odds take into consideration not how many games a team will actually win, but what number given will generate the most interest and revenue for the sports books.
All this into consideration, and some weeks a coin toss is just as good. Baseball and even Basketball have computerized statistical analytics. We can see how likely a player is to go 1 for 3 as a right hander against a left handed pitcher at night. We can see how many points a player generates by being present on the court. But in football, that is a little more difficult in an overall game situation. A player will not be in for every play. A player may get taken out due to injury, a player having an off day will be noted for a mismatch by an alert opposing coach. Metrics in football is much more complicated.
That being said, I started by cutting out tabs of all the teams, arranging them in last year's order of finish, then looking at coaching changes, draft picks, free agents, etc. as well as chronic injuries, weaknesses, and roster strength. I tried to consider bye weeks, strength of schedule, which is based mostly off of last years finishes, and fall little into this years stats. however, numbers of conference road games near end of season, bye weeks, and of course, weather are factors to consider. If the Pesky Red Birds are playing in the Snows of New York in December, for example, that is something to consider. I then rearranged them, picking the teams that I think will be best in this season.
And, as always, I have endeavored to make the post entertaining. Above all else, this is Entertainment. I do not work for any team, I have no ownership interest in any franchise and my writings do not (yet) generate income. So having fun on this forum always comes first.
That being said, let's look at the Predictions for the AFC in 2021
AFC East. There is a huge consensus that Bill's Buffaloes are going to waltz back to the AFC Championship game. Never mind the fact that teams who lose the AFC Championship have numerous problems the nest year. They do have the best roster, on paper, BUT The receivers are getting a little older, there are questions on the depth of the O-Line and two coaches (Belichick and Flores) have had an offseason to figure out how to beat them. The Evil Patriots are going to be a much improved team over last season, with a number of key players returning after opting out of last years games. Flores has learned well, he has quietly built a team of players who weekly hone and sharpen their skills to compete at the top levels of the game. Then there are the Jets, who finally sent Gase back to coaching High School and drafted their 6th franchise QB in the past 5 seasons. But they are still the Jets and will somehow find a way to be a Hot Mess.
1
BILL's BUFFALOES 11-6 IF the records stay the same, and the tie breaker comes down to the September Heat in Miami vs the Mild NY weather at Halloween, we will see a Tie for First Place. And if MY FINZ take both games, then they take the Tiebreaker into the playoffs. Either way, before the Buffaloes shuffle-uffle-uffle off to the playoffs, they have to know that Allen, the real deal, will have slightly older and slightly less deep WR than last year, and less OL Depth. Also, QB's that stand out attract more attention, as teams look for ways to stop them. And that the top 3 teams in this division are not slouches. Still, this is a well stocked, well coached and well rostered team, built around the skill set of the QB and able to hang with anyone.
Make Super Bowl Plans If : They can find a way to win on the road and not fall into the trap that most AFC Championship Losers find, of falling apart after the conference final the year before.
IT's GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: My Finz mature on schedule and Allen's receivers do not step up.
2
MY FINZ 11-6 I know, I know, you may be saying that I am just saying this because they are my favorite team, but consider this: The Offensive line, the most Under-rated, plays to the highest caliber under Flores. The QB has two elite weapons and will have a third after suspension time, and a RB by Committee will keep fresh plyers (next man up) in the rotation. On the Defensive side, we may be seeing a "no name" defense with the backfield to shut down Allen and Newton, as well as a front 4 to control the tempo. This is a very young team, well coached and set for the long run.
Make Postseason Plans if: Tua takes advantage of his weapons to spread the field and the defense sets the tempo, allowing the early draft picks of the past few years to shine.
It's Going to be a long season if: Tua goes down or fails to mature
3
NEW ENGLAND PATRIOTS 9-8 Let's face the facts: Bill Belichick, or Beli
cheat as he is called) has a Losing Record without Tom Brady at QB. Look it up. 61 and 72. The great Genius coach, the future HOF, the Football Prodigy, the Cheater, is under .500 without Brady. This year, he has no Brady, a lackluster Cam and an untested rookie. And Playoffs are a stretch, a big stretch in this division. The Patriot's will need to find new and innovative ways to win this season. Without getting caught. Still, the team will be improved over last years. The players who sat out last year, have a chance to shake the ring rust off and get back in the game (we will see how that works) The team has a harder schedule than the Buffaloes or the Finz.
MAKE SUPER BOW PLANS IF: Belichick finds his magical combination on the field, winning games on Tuesday through Saturdays.
It's going to be a long season if: The reality of NFL is too much for the rookie QB and Cam keeps being Cam.
4
NEW YORK JETS 5-12 Let's Face it, the JETS are a Cursed Franchise. Obviously. Listen to the Fans...they curse them out more than anyone. SO the team has a new coach, new QB and no more googly eyed Gase . The team has some talented players. The problem is, with a new system, and many of these guys having not played together before, under a new coach, under a total clusterflock of a management system, no long term plan, and sometimes, it would appear, no short term one either...this team will not compete against the talented conference Rivals. And these are the JETS...Enough Said
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: You are talking about chartering a bus and giving each player a ticket
IT'S GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: it is anything like the Lines at LaGuardia, or like the odds Vegas puts on the team.
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AFC NORTH
This is an interesting division because on one hand, the Steelers have the Hardest schedule, for what it is worth, while the Bengals are in the running for "Worse run franchise" for what....5 seasons in a row?
It has been like....what 6 seasons wince they finished first? And Hue Jackman and Marv Lewis were coaching, both now at Arizona State last I checked... So what will this division bring? Excitement. I look forward to seeing Harris open up the Steelers offense with the run game. I think the Browns are ready to make the first place leap. And I think the Ravens will be in the payoffs too.
1
CLEVELAND BROWNS 12-5 There was a recent Episode of the Low Budget cable TV series "Dark Side of Football" talking about how Bad the Brownies are. How they always seem to fail at every turn. I have said all along that a team must be run like a business, commodities (players) bought and sold, Business plans (game plans) have to be written and rewritten and above all else, LONG TERM GOALS Must be identified and achieved. Most teams fail to even MAKE long term plans. The Browns have finally figured out how to load a talented roster, stick with it, and this year they should have the talent and leadership to go the distance. Baker Mayfield has found his groove , the defense is maturing and the team has so much talent that it would be on the coaches if the team does not win the division.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: The team continues on track to improve and excel as they have so far.
IT's GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: The BROWNS revert to being the BROWNS in some way and find a way to throw this chance away. IF So, Moses Cleveland will be turning over in his grave. Again.
2
BALTIMORE RAVENS 11-6 This is still a solid team, good coaching, good roster and plenty of ways to win. And at least a few fans and front office people itching for that to happen The roster should be more improved, but in the end, free agents rarely add up to homegrown talent. Which gives a slight edge to the Brownies in this division.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF Rookies Batemen and Oweh can start immediately and make a much needed impact in their positions.
IT's GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: the Steelers and Browns play to their potential
3
PITTSBURGH STEELERS 9-8 I hate to pick Big Ben and Company 3rd, but I am seeing some things here that bother me, and some of it involves a downward spiral of certain players/positions which have not been adequately addressed. ROOKIE RB's can be a boon or Bust, we are hoping Harris is the former because rookie halfbacks often present a style problem for the defense, at least until the opponent figures out HOW to stop them. Having a serious RB will allow Big Ben to open up to his limited receivers, and spread the field a little more than Big Ben's wingspan. Still, this will be a tough season for the Steelers in that division, especially with what is ranked as the HARDEST Schedule and an end of season road trip to Baltimore. a week after hosting the Browns and spending The day after Christmas in Kansas City.
MAKE SUPER PLANS IF: we remember that this is still a good team, Big Ben staill has some leadership and maybe just maybe the cards will fal into place.
IT IS GFOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: The team does not find some serious, and I mean SERIOUS Motivation to the Receivers and the O-Line just cannot stay healthy.
5
CINCINNATI BENGALS Here we go. This team, in case you missed last season's episode, drafted a Heisman Trophy QB with the first pick, then allowed him to sustain a knee injury late in the season, a knee injury that may well impair his ability to play this year. SO Instead of getting some solid Offensive line protection, they god a Free Agent, a second round pick, used the first round pick to get the said QB's friend from LSU and told the Offensive line..."now boys, don't let your Quarterback get hit" Which was inevitable due to the poor planning and lack of foresight this franchise has. And sadly, it may happen again, which sucks for everyone..the players, the fans, the team and especially him ! So DO NOT look for the Stripey Cats to make any great leaps in this division, not with those opponents, but do look ahead to the offensive line talent that will be available with pick number 5 or 6.
I do see Visions of JOE NAMATH in BURROWS...but sadly, the vision is of a great player limited by chronic knee injuries.....SO the team needs to find some serious O-Line help.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: Somehow Burrows wants to go from worst to first, but that will not happen.
IT's GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: Burrows does not play, or limited because of his injury, or opponents find all those weak chains in the line.
AFC SOUTH.
This has long been my least interested division. Why? Because I have no interest in any team in it. I am sure that they play some exciting ball for the fans, but it is a division I tend to gloss over and games that I do not watch much at the sports bar. Unless MY FINZ are playing . That being said, it is perhaps the EASIEST division to pick.
1
TENNESSEE TITANS 13-4 Remember the Titans have a coach taught by Belichick, only more successful without Brady, and a QB that turned out to be an all-pro talent when he is away from the Lousy Dolphins coaches he used to have. (The O-Line helps too, they DO get the job done) So they are one step away from the Super Bowl. Year before last, they were in the AFC Championship, then they suffered the same "Lost the Championship, drop a few" that teams always suffer in that pattern.
This year, coaching is solid, game plan will be good and everything is in place.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: Tannehill continues to master the offense and Vrabel continues to mix up plays to keep opponents off guard.
IT's GOING TO BE A LONG SEASON IF: The TITANS do not also win against other division and conference foes (Titans, Buccaneers)
2 INDIANAPOLIS COLTS 9-8 Ah yes, they still have great Uniforms, but the Colts do not have a great shot at the title this year. While they had a VERY BUSY free agency, perhaps the busiest in the league, taking castoffs from other teams while losing too many solid veterans may not add up to wins. While they are against two cellar dwellers in the division they will need 11 wins to make the playoffs and I only se 9 or 10 at best.
Make Super Bowl Plans IF: Wentz is healthy and all the new pieces fall together
It is going to be a long season if: Wentz gets hurt, and there is a good reason that other teams let some of the free agents go.
3JACKSONVILLE JAGUARS 3 14 OK A whole new team, new coach, and we all know how it takes College coaches , even with top talent, some time to get established. Many people are wondering how rookie QB Trevor Lawrence will pan out...will he be the next Peyton Manning? Bigger question should be HOW LONG until Urban Meyer has a nervous breakdown, has chest pain during practice, becomes Overwhelmed by the Florida heat and the NFL Stress? Those are the growing pains...Jimmy Johnson won one game his first year with a Pro Bowl HOF QB. The Spotted Cats will win, eventually, but it will take some time. 3 Wins is an expectation
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: you are talking about the Super Bowl in like 5 years...
IT WILL BE A LONG SEASON IF: Urban Meyer leaves after week 3 due to stress.
HOUSTON TEXICANS 2- 15
The Texans draft their own pick l next year, and likely the first overall. Due to some Terrible (for them) trades (good for MY FINZ) the Texicans have not been able to rebuild a depleted roster that saw the Exit of Fuller and Watt, proven leaders at their position. I won't even get into the Watson scandal .....I'll just point out that this is a very very BAD team.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: 15 other AFC teams fold
IT WILL BE A LONG SEASON IF: ...
If Nothing. It
is going to be a very long season for the players and fans of this team. And will not be fast enough to get to next springs draft.
AFC WEST
The Chiefs still own this division. Mahommes is still the best of his class, and Andy Reid can still field a winning team. The Distance between the Chiefs and the next 3 teams is far. On the Other End, Broncos have announced Teddy Bridgewater as the starter. A good QB yes, a great one, No, and not enough help on the sidelines and the roster to make him look that good.
1
KANSAS CITY CHIEFS 14-3
Mahommes and Company really make football fun to watch. How can anyone not like these guys? Well, maybe 15 other teams who will watch them in the Super Bowl, again, but hey....Chiefs are the real deal. Still.
Make Super Bowl Plans if: Everything falls into place again.
It will be a long season if: you are a Broncos fan.
2 San Diego/Los Angeles Area Homeless Chargers 10-7 Things are starting to look up for the Bolts. They have their QB but concerns if the Sophomore Slump set in are real. They have a solid roster, not enough depth, but if everyone stays healthy that may not matter. They seem to be doing the right thing, in regards to designing a playbook around the QB's skills. They will challenge soon enough but not just yet.
Make Super Bowl Plans if : The league decides to have both LA teams at home for the big game.
IT's going to be a long season if: The dreaded
Sophomore Slump hits the QB
3
LAS VEGAS (OAKLAND)RAIDERS 6-11
Las Vegas has embraced the Raiders (and weed too it seems) Sadly, the game has not embraced Chuckie Gruden who is not building as fast as one had hoped. It may be that he had too many seasons away from the game. Remember, he did build the Raiders but won a Super Bowl with Tony Dungy's Buccaneers. I would have expected more by now, and as an old school classic fan am somewhat disappointed.
MAKE SUPER BOWL PLANS IF: the league is rigged
IT WILL BE A LONG SEASON IF: Some key players find out about Planet 13 and get suspended
4
DENVER BRONCOS 4--13 No, these are not Manning's Broncos. Nor Elway's. Nor Dan Reeve's either. These are Teddy Bridgewater's who have fans hoping that his past shortcomings and injuries are Water Under the Bridge..(I said it) This is a team still not moving anywhere, and does not seem to have a solid plan. But getting a good player with the 5th or 6 pick overall will help.
Make Super Bowl Plans If: Oh never mind
IT WILL BE A LONG SEASON IF : Teddy Bridgewater joins the injured list again.
SO Looking ahead I think the Division Winners will probably be Bill's Buffaloes, Cleveland Browns, Tennessee Titans and Kansas City Chiefs. The Wildcards will be MY FINZ, The Baltimore Ravens and the Homeless Chargers
While The Chargers will be happy to get into the Playoffs, they will fall first to the Browns. The Ravens will take out Bill's Buffaloes, and MY FINZ will play a close game but fall a point short against he Titans.
The Browns and Chiefs will meet in the Red Arrow Stadium, in the AFC Championship, with the Chiefs taking a very close high scoring win into Super Bowl XLVYZ In Los Angeles.
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