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Old 08-12-2015, 05:37 AM
 
Location: sittin happy in the sun :-)
3,638 posts, read 6,472,957 times
Reputation: 1848

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we haven't even got near to season and things are STILL crazy.

permits for new homes in CC have risen dramatically in the past 2-3 months (possible over inflated by trying to beat the impact fee rise) and everywhere you look new homes are being started

THATS the good news. Now the bad, due to the increase in work , there is now a shortage of GOOD labor. We use the same subs every time, no shopping for the cheapest, just looking for quality and reliability. Recently some of my guys have had calls from the bigger/cheaper operations looking 'to give them some work' - because guess what, their cheaper guys are over loaded.

Right now we are having to tell people we cant start another home for 3 months, we are still finishing within 6 but even that is getting harder. Simply there is too much work,so we have to start turning some away.

The other impact of this is ,of course, increases. Home prices have risen by double digits the past 12 months.......workers are 'seeing' builders making HUGE (Caroline) profits (not quite true on work bid for last year) and want a slice..............Even in August I am in discussions with my subs about prices for next year, the first reaction is "its only August' then when you explain that a 3 month lead time will soon be 2016 they get the picture.

so anyone thinking of building, be warned, come another 2-3 months expect prices to go up,i would estimate right now we are looking at 5-10% just to stay at todays levels. People planning on coming down in season expecting 'good (cheap) deals are going to be let down.

Oh and of course lots prices are rising,so will used inventory...............

and in case everyone thinks its all roses,
one builder has already closed doors:
another took on too many bank jobs and has cash flow problems and is taking 9 months to build:
a number cant find subs:
homes are sitting half started/finished, trusses laying on the ground for weeks (in water) is not good practice, roofs half done................you can see where this is heading , quality will drop, problems will rise.

Happy humpday
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:29 AM
 
Location: Rotonda Florida
1,393 posts, read 1,337,118 times
Reputation: 659
I have no first hand knowledge of the building market, but from what I see when driving around it sure seems like your conclusions are pretty much dead on. I've been trying to find someone good and reputable for some small projects - forget it.

We recently purchased in Rotonda and after watching the market around here for almost a year I'll throw in with you that the market is very "hot" and prices are definitely rising. Will it hit a wall and bust? Who knows. A lot probably hinges on the US economy which, if we don't do something about the debt, is fairly likely to collapse before too much longer. Prices are definitely going up pretty quickly though and the market is very brisk. When I was watching, if a house was on the market for more than 2-3 weeks, I started to ask myself "what's wrong with it"...
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:33 AM
 
Location: SW Florida
12,355 posts, read 9,137,779 times
Reputation: 19308
Shades of building/rebuilding after Hurricane Charley and the other hurricanes that criss-crossed Florida in 2004 and 2005.

I know there are circumstances, but I know I would happily wait for 3 months, or more, to get started on a house if that is what it took to get a well-built, sound house by folks who would take the time to do it right.
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:52 AM
 
Location: Punta Gorda and Maryland
6,103 posts, read 14,026,537 times
Reputation: 1241
Growing to fast, and taking on more work when resources are difficult to find, can be WORSE than when things get bad and funding dries up.

I have stated for years during the recession that we have lost an entire generation of skilled tradesmen, who could no longer find work, so they changed careers and moved on - never to return. Now, not only do you find a lack of trades people, but the skills are just not there, so more mistakes are made, and the quality of the work is just lacking....
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Old 08-12-2015, 06:57 AM
 
Location: sittin happy in the sun :-)
3,638 posts, read 6,472,957 times
Reputation: 1848
03.....my belief , and that's all it is, is that we have another 3 good years for sure, probably 5. this is because circumstances are different from the last crash, plus the market in Rotonda is mainly 'solid' money, retirees/baby boomers/Europeans who are primarily cash buyers and are not dependent on finance/jobs.........the 'grey' dollar. Plus people moving down from up north still find it cheaper here. Also even when the upcurve stops,as long as the downward slope is steady ,that is not all bad. Its a crash like jumping off a mountain that killed things last time.......we shall see how right I am, I know I can never predict the lottery numbers so who knows !


Travel lassie, right now that's what we are seeing, wise/intelligent buyers are prepared to wait...........the ones who wont are the ones looking to pay 'cheap'...............and then guess what they get !
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Old 08-12-2015, 07:05 AM
 
Location: Rotonda Florida
1,393 posts, read 1,337,118 times
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I hope your right! Although we don't plan on selling anyhow. I think you're right about the buyers here being not dependent on finance/jobs. We did finance but only until the place up north sells.

The last crash saw a LOT of mortgages given to people who had no business having a mortgage in the first place, let alone a .5 million one. Given what they just put us through to get financed (and we could have paid cash if pushed) I don't think they're just dolling out mortgages like Halloween candy anymore.
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Old 08-12-2015, 09:30 AM
 
1,917 posts, read 2,296,191 times
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I think what we are seeing is the people who put off their retirement/second-home plans due to the big hit their retirement/savings accounts took during in the recession.
Anyone who hung on and didn't turn their stocks and funds into cash found that their accounts rebounded nicely and exceed what they were prior to the recession.

Gary
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Old 08-12-2015, 10:58 AM
 
Location: Port Charlotte FL
2,347 posts, read 1,248,558 times
Reputation: 5379
I can help....where's my hammer?...nevermind, I see my fishing pole..
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Old 08-12-2015, 07:59 PM
 
Location: Port Charlotte from Northern NJ
66 posts, read 52,938 times
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We were going to wait to build after buying our lots but seeing what was happening decided to start sooner rather than later. Our house has gone up $10K since we first looked at the model last October. We locked in at a good price. We also got what I consider a really good deal on the lots in SGC.

Bill
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Old 08-12-2015, 08:29 PM
 
Location: Port Charlotte
1,721 posts, read 2,434,628 times
Reputation: 382
Normally September is the slowest month around here, but this year it was july.
But now its getting pretty busy in my biz.
in fact just contracted my largest contrast ever



Quote:
Originally Posted by Big House View Post
Now, not only do you find a lack of trades people, but the skills are just not there, ....
not to derail but i agree , watching the edgewater project seeing 2 miles of road and a handful of workers
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