Official 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread (Miami, Port Charlotte: house, buy, calculator)

[Messing About]

After Alex in January and Bonnie in May, it's finally June 1 and time to open the 2016 Atlantic Hurricane Season Thread. This is the place to post all summer storm stories, pictures, power outages, your questions, your fears, your purchases related to storm season, your hurricane party invites and whatever else is related to our Port Charlotte, Punta Gorda 2016 hurricane season experience.

The forecasters are predicting an "average" season. What we've all learned in the past few years is you can't really predict these things with any sense of accuracy. All things weather related in last few years are mind boggling. What you can do and what you should do is prepare for a hurricane and hope it doesn't come. But prepare, nonetheless.

There are plenty of publications online to tell you how to put your plan together so I won't rehash it all here. I will however, share a few lessons we've learned as we head into our 9th season. There's just two of us in our house. The preparation plan is to have enough supplies on hand to get you through 2 weeks without any public services, stores or fuel available after the storm.

We stock up on bottled water starting in May. We prefer the taste of the bottled water anyway so we know none will go to waste. We start by having 5 cases of 40 bottles each. By the end of June we will have 10 cases in stock. That's 50 gallons of water. We then use that water throughout the summer but always stay close to that amount so that any restocks needed for storms headed our way are easily accomplished.

We always have plenty of freshly frozen fish in our chest freezer, along with a variety of steaks, chops and chicken. We have our new lump charcoal Kamado grill plus an old barely used Magma stainless propane grill off an old boat. Need to have propane bottles to fuel that one.

The other advice I will offer is this. If you don't have a portable generator, think about getting one. After 10 years of no hurricanes making landfall in FL, stores don't keep many units in stock. Your chances of being the person who gets one of those in stock units is not high. If a named storm puts FL in its sights, those generators will disappear quicker than the northern snowbirds. When Sandy was originally tracking toward FL, my wife and I had the discussion. I called SAMs Club and learned they had 2 units in store. We pulled the trigger and dropped a thousand dollars on a nice unit that can power out little house right from the breaker panel. When the power goes, we will run our fridges, freezers, ceiling fans and outlets all day. Then shut all that down and run out AC, alarm and security cameras all night. Every other day we will run the pool pump to keep it clean. This also means we need to have fuel to run that generator. We have cans to hold 25 gallons worth. We will also fuel up both of our vehicles so if we run short we have a reserve of 38 gallons to draw from.

So that's it from my remote hurricane watch station in Nassau this morning, aboard the Majesty of the Seas, where there's an 80% chance of rain but a 0% chance of a named storm in the next 48 hours. Next name up on the list is Colin, which incidentally took the name place of the now retired and infamous Charley. If Colin comes calling, will you be ready?

[Messing About]

Forecast models are agreeing on what appears to be a large rainmaker forming over the Western Gulf of Mexico, near the Mexican peninsula. The system will move east toward Florida bring heavy rains by mid week, next week. Some models have it as a low pressure center that has a 20% chance of tropical development. Once it crosses Florida and enters the Atlantic, chances of strengthening increase but we will be in the clear by then.

Of course these are just computer model predictions but it's pretty likely we will get significant rainfall over several days. Put your plan together.

This is our first full season with the new impact doors and windows. So nice to not worry about the hassle of shutters. We already endured 93 mile per hour winds in January. Summer storms can bring so much more. Just had breakfast on this cruise ship with a guy who shared his story of surviving Andrew in Miami in '92. He had only plywood for shutters and they were ripped away in seconds when the crap hit the fan. Tree came through his joulest windows and allowed the wind inside. Captivating story of being home for the storm, his roof coming half off and his dogs missing from the closed bathroom where he placed them. They went out via the roof but were found later, alive and well.

The modern technology of today's impact glass, windows and doors can really ready your older concrete block home tomorrow weather the storms and last for your lifetime. This 1982 canal house is our only home and we hope it is our last one.

[Messing About]

Updated one hour ago, from the National Weather Service:

A broad low pressure area is expected to form over the Yucatan
Peninsula of Mexico or the southern Gulf of Mexico by late in the
weekend. Additional development of the low could occur as it
subsequently moves north-northeastward across the central or
eastern Gulf of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent
* Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent

[Messing About]

This courtesy of Charlotte County Energency Manager Wayne Sallade:

"Now labeled Invest 93L, our wannabe soon-to-be Gulf system is going to make things real messy around these parts late Sunday thru mid-day Tuesday. Somebody will get 7+ inches of rain and parts of the region will see tides running 3-4 feet above normal. That will be problematic as we're heading for a full moon and tides already above normal. Some areas will see as much as 6 feet of storm tide when high tide arrives Monday and Tuesday. With tides up and tropical rains coming, our ability to drain the water will be impeded. Areas like Downtown Punta Gorda and roads like Bayshore, Edgewater, Riverside and Harborview may see water. Do you see a theme there with the street names?"

[JERSEY MAN]

Thanks MA for putting in the time to give us a heads up. Going to batten down the hatches and lift the boat up higher and remove the outside furniture.

[SeaRay35]

Thank God for hurricane shutters. Makes a nice outdoor storage area!

[ReadyToRelax]

Looking to purchase a portable Generator for the home.Someone posted on how to calculate wattage needs awhile back.I looked for the post but can't locate.Would appreciate if someone could point me in the right direction.Thanks in advance.

[MartyGras]

Thanks for the update MA

Based on the forecast you provided above it doesn't appear that the bad weather will ba a factor when I arrive in Cancun for work on Wesnesday....LOL

Gary

[Messing About]

@ RTR here's your link
Honda Generators - Wattage calculator

@Gary - nice.

Here's the latest update.
Up to 70% chance of a named storm (Colin).
Winds not formats to be terribly dangerous.
Flood potential is high, particularly for those with low base elevation homes.
Some areas will receive up to 7" of rainfall, more if the system stalls over our coast.
This rain, coupled with full moon (Monday) will result in anomaly high tides on Sunday at 3:10 PM, Monday at 6:13 AM and Monday at 3:50 PM.

This Monday afternoon tide is already forecast at 2.3' above mean level, which could result in an actual high tide of 5-7' above mean tide level. Those in low lying areas should plan for flooding now and shore up potential exposures with sandbags today. I will inquire if the county is sponsoring sand bags or if you're on your own but I've been called away on a work emergency in STL so my time is fleeting.

This is not going to be a biblical event by any means but those in the lowest lying waterfront areas need to be prepared today and tomorrow. If you know you have areas on your property that have flooded before, and you haven't addressed it, those areas will flood this Monday. You're probably too late to dig a French drain today but perhaps you need to purchase a good pump from your local hardware store and learn how to use it. Again, if you need this, but it now before they are all sold out.

Here's the latest Spaghetti plots for the storm.


I will look forward to see your photos posted here. Good luck everyone.

[Messing About]

More from Charlotte County Emergency Managment Director Wayne Sallade:

"If you have had issues with surface flooding in the past, like water coming onto porches, patios or lanais, then do the following: Head over to your nearest garden center (or Lowes, Home Depot or Walmart) and buy some bags of topsoil. Pack them tightly along the areas you had problems and they'll at least redirect the water or slow its progress. When the threat ends, stack them in the garage or use them to replace the dirt washed out of your flowerbeds. Works much better than sand and there's no mess when it's over! You're welcome."