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if it's not propaganda then why the need for such an over the top title for the post "North Hills is killing it!". Surely something more professional like "great news for North Hills homeowners". It gets the message across equally as well without the dramatics
Are you really saying that if I titled the thread "great news for North Hills homeowners" that you would NOT have labeled it propaganda??????
I'll run all my future thread titles by you before I post.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Beermat
Exactly, so only the information you want to be read gets posted
Nooooooo, I'm saying I figured most people would be smart enough to conclude that if a subdivision was not on the list then it didn't make the list - either it didn’t have enough qualifying resales or if it did they are < 3%.
This makes a huge difference. Take North Hills. Assuming he's just taking total appreciation and dividing it by the number of years, prices have gone up 2.64x over the last 16 years (10.27% * 16 years = 164.32% appreciation). That means that an average house bought in 1994 for $120,695 would be worth the listed $319,000 in the OP. But what was the actual appreciation when you do the math correctly?
6.3% a year.
But it's only a 4% difference, what's the big deal? With compounding values, that's huge. Either the house is worth $319K after 16 years @ 6.3% or it's worth $577,000 % 10.27%. That quite a bit of a margin of error.
At first I thought the data was telling us that buying recently was a bad deal - no neighborhood where people have resold quickly were doing well. But now it looks like the data is telling us that it's just wrong period.
And keep in mind this tells us nothing about good locations being better than bad ones for appreciation. Where's Preston on this list? Brier Creek? Lochmere? You need to compare the average appreciation between good locations compared to average locations to say that good locations are holding their value more.
Unless, of course, you're saying good locations = better appreciation = good location = better appreciation, which is just going around in circles and tells you nothing about where to buy (unless you have a time machine).
It makes a huge difference if you are trying to calculate future value (FV). Trying to calculate FV is a very dangerous proposition with real estate.
Rick - I think the bears are taking issue with you only highlighting the highest appreciation areas... It's kind of a MSM fluff approach to reporting where you can stand by it and call it "truth", but it doesn't doesn't show the big picture of RE in the area. By cherry picking the top subdivisions, you're skewing the local picture.
If you just wanted this to be a sunshine and rainbows thread, that's cool by me... But you're dressing it up as a data exercise and only showing a very small part of the Triangle area RE.Why not produce this same exact report of the worst areas? Wouldn't that be a fair way to represent your local RE market?
this thread actually creates an interesting discussion of the Forum Terms of Service in respect of Real Estate Agents about the distinction of pushing the envelope and showing knowledge. I quote from the TOS
Real Estate Agents and other businesses will not advertise their services nor solicit business in their posts. Create a free business profile by going to //www.city-data.com/profiles/add and fill out your forum profile instead. Do not include links to your websites, MLS listings, etc. in your posts. Do not try to push the envelope by attempting to hide your intentions. Do not solicit business by DMs. Show your knowledge about the area and help people and you will get leads naturally. Real estate agents should join the usergroup for them here: //www.city-data.com/forum/profi...editusergroups. It will set your user title and add an icon next to your name, so you will get free advertising with your posts.
in my humble opinion a Realtor starting a post with such a blatant headline as North Hills is killing it! and only selecting the 20 best performing subdivisions is pushing the envelope between sharing information and influencing the market
Quote:
Originally Posted by RickAbdella
Are you really saying that if I titled the thread "great news for North Hills homeowners" that you would NOT have labeled it propaganda??????
I'll run all my future thread titles by you before I post.
Egads is this the start of censorship? Hey US home prices fell nationally in July. Don't know about the Triangle. If you disagree with Rick on this one start a thread on that in the national forum or in the Raleigh forum if that data is available. Or start a negative thread asking the question if prices fell here also. But censorship! Oh wow! I mean is Rick running for Public office and there is a need to discredit him in the grand modern tradition of American politics. This is a local information forum not a national ideology war forum. If nothing else this thread is as advertised and that is good local information for residents in some North Hills communities. Isn't that what this forum is for to share local information? I wouldn't expect a dentist to have this data to share. So while others may droop their shoulders some residents of North Hills may now have a little more bounce in their step and that is a good thing. I know my neighborhood would love to see the same thing in headlines about us. Who wouldn't? Gotta believe there are lurkers wishing it was their community being highlighted.
Egads is this the start of censorship? Hey US home prices fell nationally in July. Don't know about the Triangle.
They fell a bit over 4% year over year at the end of 2Q2010 according to government stats. That puts the area back to mid-2005 values. No surprise all of the big winners in the original list are all in areas where resales have been held for longer than this.
It makes a huge difference if you are trying to calculate future value (FV). Trying to calculate FV is a very dangerous proposition with real estate.
Technically true but incomplete. It also makes a huge difference when calculating annual appreciation on a sale, as I think was the intent of the list. At least that seems to be the intent, but no one can actually verify what these numbers mean or how they were calculated. All of the examples given so far have been off from the correct way to do things that I'm a bit skeptical about the results - and the conclusions drawn become another example of garbage in, garbage out.
Quote:
I’ll look up Preston later – I have to go to a meeting…
No need, it's obvious it will barely beat inflation. That was my point - you can't claim "location, location, location" = appreciation and then turn around and ignore the low appreciation in good locations.
They fell a bit over 4% year over year at the end of 2Q2010 according to government stats. That puts the area back to mid-2005 values. No surprise all of the big winners in the original list are all in areas where resales have been held for longer than this.
Is this new news about July or the 2nd quarter report previously released. July numbers were released today. U.S. Home Prices Fell 3.3% in July From Year Earlier - Bloomberg
U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.
All of the discussion about foreclosures can be very interesting when you factor in school district especially in areas not around here. The most desirable districts may have no foreclosures and the lesser desirable districts considerably more. I have read comments by frustrated people wanting to buy in a great district on the cheap. In Wake it probably becomes something else because previously who knew where their kid was going to school with any certainty.
Is this new news about July or the 2nd quarter report previously released. July numbers were released today. U.S. Home Prices Fell 3.3% in July From Year Earlier - Bloomberg
U.S. home prices dropped 3.3 percent in July from a year earlier, the eighth consecutive decline, as foreclosed properties flooded the market.
All of the discussion about foreclosures can be very interesting when you factor in school district especially in areas not around here. The most desirable districts may have no foreclosures and the lesser desirable districts considerably more. I have read comments by frustrated people wanting to buy in a great district on the cheap. In Wake it probably becomes something else because previously who knew where their kid was going to school with any certainty.
Here's the actual report itself for you to review...
- South Atlantic (which includes NC) saw the largest MoM decline (-1.6%) and the 2nd largest YoY decline (-7.2%).
- July 2010 index is roughly the same as the September 2004 index value.
- Cumulative Seasonally Adjusted Price Change Relative to Peak USA
(Purchase‐Only, Seasonally Adjusted Peak was April 2007) hit its lowest level at -14% continuing a downward trend.
Rick - I think the bears are taking issue with you only highlighting the highest appreciation areas... It's kind of a MSM fluff approach to reporting where you can stand by it and call it "truth", but it doesn't doesn't show the big picture of RE in the area. By cherry picking the top subdivisions, you're skewing the local picture.
If you just wanted this to be a sunshine and rainbows thread, that's cool by me... But you're dressing it up as a data exercise and only showing a very small part of the Triangle area RE.Why not produce this same exact report of the worst areas? Wouldn't that be a fair way to represent your local RE market?
Here's the best areas...
Here's the worst areas...
I understand what you are saying and I really appreciate the reasonable tone you used. Maybe it is a shortcoming of mine, but I don’t know of any way to post enough data in a City-Data forum that truly represents the entire local RE market. Unless I post all the information about the more than 4000 subdivisions in Wake County someone can always accuse me of cherry picking. I try to get more detailed in my blog, but even there it is just too much data and too complex a proposition to try to represent the entire local RE market in one post. The guy that does this for a living at TARR puts out multiple multi-page reports all the time. It’s not something I can just post (it is a subscription service), I can’t just copy and past his information (I compile my own lists based on his reports), and I don’t necessarily agree with everything he produces.
I can’t read minds and everyone wants to see different things. If I could kindly suggest that if there is something more/different you would like to see then just ask – in a non-hostile way. I promise I will do my best to try to provide whatever it is if it is within my capabilities. If someone came into this thread and said – ‘this is interesting, do you also have the data for the worst performing areas?’ I would try to provide that. But what I get instead is:
“Frankly this just seems like a bullish feel good cherry picked report”
“looking at 20 sub-divisions data out of the 100's on the database is propaganda.”
“only the information you want to be read gets posted”
“in my humble opinion a Realtor starting a post with such a blatant headline as North Hills is killing it! and only selecting the 20 best performing subdivisions is pushing the envelope between sharing information and influencing the market”
If the posters of these comments asked in a non-hostile way for the data they were looking for – it wouldn’t be a “cherry picked” list. If they think that anything that I post is automatically propaganda, then they are 100% free to pull the data for themselves (all real estate sales data is public domain at the county level – or you can pay for a subscription to the TARR report www.tarreport.com) and compile your own data and come to your own conclusions.
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