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I have to admit it's a bit early for me. I don't have much interest this early on the calendar in county commission races.
The fate of the taxes needed to support light rail rest directly with the voters in Orange County, not the County Commission. Given that (a) rural county voters tend to strongly oppose tax referendums, and (b) the proposed light rail won't directly benefit much of the county (including parts of Chapel Hill, as well as Carrboro and Hillsborough, where some voters might otherwise support a transit initiative), and (c) Amendment One will draw out more right-leaning voters, my prediction is that any tax referendum will fail.
I have to admit it's a bit early for me. I don't have much interest this early on the calendar in county commission races.
The fate of the taxes needed to support light rail rest directly with the voters in Orange County, not the County Commission. Given that (a) rural county voters tend to strongly oppose tax referendums, and (b) the proposed light rail won't directly benefit much of the county (including parts of Chapel Hill, as well as Carrboro and Hillsborough, where some voters might otherwise support a transit initiative), and (c) Amendment One will draw out more right-leaning voters, my prediction is that any tax referendum will fail.
The tax proposal isn't solely for light rail. There will be BRT improvements to Hillsborough, the Orange half of Mebane, and CH-C within a year of the tax going into effect. Not to mention that about 75,000 of Orange County's 130,000 residents live in Chapel Hill or Carrboro, so as long as those folks turn out to vote the tax will be fine. (I'm too lazy to look up registered voter info, so I'm just using population as a proxy).
Edit- Oh, and the amendment will be decided in May, while the tax looks like it will be a November issue.
Not to mention that about 75,000 of Orange County's 130,000 residents live in Chapel Hill or Carrboro, so as long as those folks turn out to vote the tax will be fine.
I'm not sure the history of prior tax referendums in Orange County bears this out. Yes, the "urban" areas of the county have a slightly higher tendency to vote in favor of such proposals - but by narrow margins. On the other hand, "rural" voters tend to be more strongly opposed. On balance this has made passing tax referendums difficult, although not impossible. Turnout will certainly be key.
Quote:
Originally Posted by peperoberto
Oh, and the amendment will be decided in May, while the tax looks like it will be a November issue.
You're right. I had that issue/timing wrong. Amendment One is expected to gain "extra" support in the May primaries due to the Republican presidential primary, whereas the Democrats to not have a top-of-the-ticket contest to draw out more liberal primary voters.
I'm not sure the history of prior tax referendums in Orange County bears this out. Yes, the "urban" areas of the county have a slightly higher tendency to vote in favor of such proposals - but by narrow margins. On the other hand, "rural" voters tend to be more strongly opposed. On balance this has made passing tax referendums difficult, although not impossible. Turnout will certainly be key.
You're right. I had that issue/timing wrong. Amendment One is expected to gain "extra" support in the May primaries due to the Republican presidential primary, whereas the Democrats to not have a top-of-the-ticket contest to draw out more liberal primary voters.
Say what? I'll wager far more Dems will turn out to vote in the governor primary than will turn out to vote in the Rebuplican presidential primary. I'll go out on a limb and say Amendment one will fail 4-1 in orange county.
The transit tax will be a tossup, based much more on nimby/upscale concerns rather than left/right.
Say what? I'll wager far more Dems will turn out to vote in the governor primary than will turn out to vote in the Rebuplican presidential primary. I'll go out on a limb and say Amendment one will fail 4-1 in orange county.
Sorry, I wasn't intending to reference Orange County specifically on that issue. Just a general comment on what's been said regarding the timing of that issue.
While I think the Amendment will fail in Orange County, 4-1 is an awfully wide margin on any issue. That this issue is up for a vote in a primary rather than general election can really skew the results one would expect.
Sorry, I wasn't intending to reference Orange County specifically on that issue. Just a general comment on what's been said regarding the timing of that issue.
While I think the Amendment will fail in Orange County, 4-1 is an awfully wide margin on any issue. That this issue is up for a vote in a primary rather than general election can really skew the results one would expect.
I'm just saying that I'd expect a disproportionately democratic turnout in orange due to the governors race, in a county that was 3:1 democratic in the last presidential election.
Tax Referendums only have a narrow margin to fail...in a general election.
The BoCC got crafty and by unanimous vote put the quarter cent tax on an off year ballot last Nov. when it was the only thing D2 had to show up for (exc.HB). That is lack of leadership on the commissions part to "get" a sample when it suits them and not the taxpayers.
(note: the 1/4 cent tax was for Infrastructure and education...now the BoCC says they will cut the Education budget!)
Many were fully expecting a Transit tax on the May ballot to the same effect. At least now with it on the Gen. Ballot in Nov. is should be a better representation of the county.
If D1 was paying their way on many things sans the supplements received from D2 now, they might take a harder fiscal look at the Transit tax. Some improvement would be fine as a result...but the protracted expense of a Lt rail will never end and is not succeeding any where in the country.
At last nights BOCC meeting there was a packed house and as such a bit of grandstanding by those up for election. You need not go to these(but should)...you can watch them streaming live from the County web site. Just follow along on the Agenda until you see a hot button pop up then watch the antics.
One lady got up am mentioned the lack of representation(trash transfer station location). As all the commissioners must win D1 and more to the point "internal" D1, they feel like the Board is favoring the vote dense sections of that district which are in the municipalities. This lack of Rep is exactly what D2 feels. 2012 Candidate Filing
D1 ... D2 ... Sorry, I'm not familiar with the lingo.
There's 7 county commissioners.
Three are from District 1 (ie...D1). They must live in this district to run for this seat, and it is pretty much the chapel hill/carrboro "metropolitan" area.
Two are from District 2 (ie...D2). They must live in this district to run for this seat, and it is pretty much everywhere else in the county (Hillsborough, Mebane, rural areas).
Finally, there are two "at large" commissioners who can live anywhere in the county.
In the primary, you can only vote for candidates running in your district or at large candidates.
In the general election, you can vote for all candidates.
Somewhat confusing, but there it is. My recollection is that this was a concession by the townies to the rural areas, where the townies were willing to allow the rural areas to choose the final candidates who runs in the election, but still retained a say in who actually wins the seat.
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