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I'm a former South Floridian (veteran of at least 4 hurricanes and heaven knows how many trops) who is kind of a weather geek.
What I will tell you is that unless atmospheric conditions are just right, they *can't* give you a stellar, accurate prediction. If there are troughs/fronts/other storms nearby/sheer, you-name-it; they all gum up the works, prediction-wise.
Folks in FL prepped for a cat 4. The storm stayed off the coast (yet within the cone of doom) and many only got a trop and S. Fl not even that. But they prepped.
When I saw the initial threat to here, we gassed up the cars and got water, and brought vulnerable stuff off of the back porch and into the garage. When they then forecast the loop-de-loop, I said, "well, we'll leave this stuff like it is" (and I didn't put my Halloween decs up outside as planned) JUST in case. Even though they were adamant Matthew would veer off and make a sharp right.
Well it didn't and we got more than expected. We kept power here so I didn't need to use some of the preps but I'm glad we did them, just as my brother in Fort Lauderdale was glad he shuttered up, just in case.
The lesson here is that you should always have some preps, don't trust a forecast more than a day out, learn to do some forecasting yourself (models are readily available online) and most important, NEVER trust a 'cane 'til it's out-to-sea or way up north. Assume they will hit you until they're gone.
I feel for those with all the flooding issues and power outages.
I tracked and closely monitored Mathew from the beginning as I had family in Orlando,Savannah and Charleston. As the Cat 4 storm passed Florida I was much relieved when my daughter called and said the storm had passed without a loss of a single branch. As Mathew approached Savannah and Charleston the mandatory evacuations had family safely out of the areas. Although a Cat 4 I think everyone could have stayed put and been safe, glad they left but just saying. Here I sat in North Carolina counting my blessing that family had been spared and this terrible Mathew was getting ready to make a sharp right hand turn and miss all but the most southeastern point of NC.
Today I sit here wondering just what the _ell happened. 9-15 inches of rain, massive destruction(flooding) of thousands of homes, and at least 10 deaths. What did I miss .... I don't remember any prediction of a Fran/Floyd event a remote possibility. Even Sat as torrential rain poured for hour after hour the weather channel was reporting from sun filled Daytona Beach and Jacksonville/ etc .... didn't even have reporters assigned in NC as the 'FORECAST' was a right turn.
The so called 'experts' need to admit from the start they don't really have a clue for sure what these deadly storms will do. I had gotten to the point I took their forecast as Gospel but never again. God bless all the NC people that lost their lives and homes.
Funny you say this. When I was listening to Greg Fishel leading up to Matthew's arrival, I was thankful for the information, but was getting sick and tired of him constantly apologizing in advance (it sounded like excuses to me) for the fact that nobody can predict these storms, and that anything can happen.
He droned on and on in what seemed to me to be a CYA, "this is my best guess, but nobody's perfect, so don't hang me out to dry" monologue....
I guess I'm saying that I just didn't see it the way you did. I only listened to WRAL, but in hindsight, I think they did a decent job of predicting the unpredictable, and they did an entirely overblown job of letting us know that predicting is not an exact science.
As descerning adults, I think it is up to us to interpret ALL of the info (and there was a lot), and to be ready for the worst, and hope for the best. You can only predict Mother Nature so much.
I can't imagine any one of them saying, "this is what it's definitely going to do." I think they advised about possibilities, but they were saying the track was like Floyd's on Tuesday, though.
Exactly
They spent MUCH time talking about "Cone of predictability" (or whatever it was), and about how "this is just the path of the eye, but that the storm will have effects for hundreds of miles of width" and they especially hammered on "this is what we are predicting for 3-days out, but it can all change. Please check back at 11 when we get the next update, and after that check in at ....."
In my case, "they" is WRAL weather only. I don't have cable.
I'm a former South Floridian (veteran of at least 4 hurricanes and heaven knows how many trops) who is kind of a weather geek.
What I will tell you is that unless atmospheric conditions are just right, they *can't* give you a stellar, accurate prediction. If there are troughs/fronts/other storms nearby/sheer, you-name-it; they all gum up the works, prediction-wise.
Folks in FL prepped for a cat 4. The storm stayed off the coast (yet within the cone of doom) and many only got a trop and S. Fl not even that. But they prepped.
When I saw the initial threat to here, we gassed up the cars and got water, and brought vulnerable stuff off of the back porch and into the garage. When they then forecast the loop-de-loop, I said, "well, we'll leave this stuff like it is" (and I didn't put my Halloween decs up outside as planned) JUST in case. Even though they were adamant Matthew would veer off and make a sharp right.
Well it didn't and we got more than expected. We kept power here so I didn't need to use some of the preps but I'm glad we did them, just as my brother in Fort Lauderdale was glad he shuttered up, just in case.
The lesson here is that you should always have some preps, don't trust a forecast more than a day out, learn to do some forecasting yourself (models are readily available online) and most important, NEVER trust a 'cane 'til it's out-to-sea or way up north. Assume they will hit you until they're gone.
I feel for those with all the flooding issues and power outages.
What he said Bottom line is to be prepared! I've been through 3 or 4 hurricanes/tropical storms, numerous blizzards, tornado's, etc. and if I've learned anything it's that weather forecasting is not an exact science.
Leading up to the storm my standard google was "Matthew Spaghetti" so I could see the map that shows *all* of the computer models with their predicted paths for the storm. Yeah, about 2/3rds of them showed the storm making a turn to the East but there were lots that showed it heading into NC including a couple that showed it passing directly over Raleigh.
I think the OP predicted that forecasters would be eating crow. From the time I spent in genetic self-modifying algorithms I suspect their actual reaction was, "Yeah! More data so we can improve the models for next time!"
OP, You're kidding right? Most people with scientific knowledge are totally amazed at how well forecasting is achieved. It's not as if weather has one exact outcome. Tiny, tiny events inside and outside of the zone of data can start a major chain of events, and yet that chain of events can be wiped out by another tiny, tiny event somewhere else.
Just 40 years ago a hurricane coming up the coast was just that. No one had any clue where it might make landfall, if at all. You just knew one was coming...potentially. We've become spoiled and lazy and ONLY want to take action or prepare when we know it's hours away from hitting our neighborhood. And by that time, it's too late. Look at all of the stories floating around this week of people who stayed in dangerous areas, and then pleaded with the Coast Guard of Law Enforcement to come save them at the 11th hour.
I'm a Florida native and had family in the path down there. The reason that Florida didn't have the predicted devastation and Orlando specifically was relatively untouched was that in the middle of the night, Matthew wobbled about 30 miles to the east and instead of gaining strength decreased about 20 mph. The difference in a 120 mph hurricane and and a 140 is completely different. And those 30 miles spared a lot of devastation because it kept the strongest winds off shore.
But while Orlando was spared, Volusia county where my mom was had a good amount of damage and my mom alone had 15 trees down. Not to mention flooding in Northern Florida.
Hurricanes are completely unpredictable and anytime you are in the vicinity, you have to be on alert. Hurricane Charley in FL was predicted to hit Tampa, then took a sharp turn inland at the last minute, slammed about 60 miles south into Port Charlotte and ended up coming up through Orlando, which was completely unpredictable. That's not the weatherman's fault, that's nature. They do a pretty darn good job, IMHO.
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Bottom line is to be prepared! I've been through 3 or 4 hurricanes/tropical storms, numerous blizzards, tornado's, etc. and if I've learned anything it's that weather forecasting is not an exact science.
