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Old 09-05-2017, 11:53 AM
 
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It's started steering north just slightly.

https://twitter.com/RaleighWx/status/905118340917727236
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Old 09-05-2017, 12:26 PM
 
Location: Chapelboro
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Wunderground is comparing it Hurricane Donna of 1960 which went up through Florida then back out to sea and then hit Wilmington as a Cat 2 and went up the OBX, so NC might not be out of the woods even if it does hit FL. Looks very powerful wherever it hits. Must be terrifying to be on one of the islands.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ca...rricane-record
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Old 09-05-2017, 12:55 PM
 
Location: under the beautiful Carolina blue
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Quote:
Originally Posted by poppydog View Post
Wunderground is comparing it Hurricane Donna of 1960 which went up through Florida then back out to sea and then hit Wilmington as a Cat 2 and went up the OBX, so NC might not be out of the woods even if it does hit FL. Looks very powerful wherever it hits. Must be terrifying to be on one of the islands.

https://www.wunderground.com/cat6/ca...rricane-record
That's the latest forecast I heard....skirts up FL east coast, leaves at Port St. Lucie and landfalls at Savannah, which would be ugly.
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Old 09-05-2017, 01:16 PM
 
Location: Durm
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Quote:
Originally Posted by twingles View Post
That's the latest forecast I heard....skirts up FL east coast, leaves at Port St. Lucie and landfalls at Savannah, which would be ugly.
The Euro and GFS models still differ with Euro taking it up FL's west coast and GFS up the east - either is terrible, but I sure hope the GFS is right, because Tampa Bay is at great great risk otherwise.

Edit: I don't want anyone to get it, but if it goes up the west coast then Tampa/St. Pete etc are on the dirty side of the storm and all of the water goes up Tampa Bay causing major wreckage
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Old 09-05-2017, 02:00 PM
 
Location: Cary, NC
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Do any of you have any experience with evacuating from the NC beaches if there is a mandatory evacuation? I am at Topsail until the 16th and will be keeping a close eye on the storm. I guess what I am wondering is how much traffic (and traffic delays) there would be if there was a mandatory evacuation and I had to head back home to Cary. If the storm is headed this way after the weekend, would it be prudent to get ahead of a mandatory evacuation and leave early, or wait as long as I can to see if an evacuation even happens. I hope I am explaining my thoughts clearly.
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Old 09-05-2017, 02:00 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NorasMom View Post
The Euro and GFS models still differ with Euro taking it up FL's west coast and GFS up the east - either is terrible, but I sure hope the GFS is right, because Tampa Bay is at great great risk otherwise.

Edit: I don't want anyone to get it, but if it goes up the west coast then Tampa/St. Pete etc are on the dirty side of the storm and all of the water goes up Tampa Bay causing major wreckage
The Euro model is usually the most accurate
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Old 09-05-2017, 02:20 PM
 
Location: Durm
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Originally Posted by J.M.M View Post
The Euro model is usually the most accurate
I know
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Old 09-05-2017, 02:24 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by J.M.M View Post
The Euro model is usually the most accurate
Fyi, from what I understand the GFS has been improved this season so it's 8x more accurate than in the past. It also apparently accurately called Harvey.
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Old 09-05-2017, 02:47 PM
 
Location: NC
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Quote:
Originally Posted by chellemi808 View Post
Do any of you have any experience with evacuating from the NC beaches if there is a mandatory evacuation? I am at Topsail until the 16th and will be keeping a close eye on the storm. I guess what I am wondering is how much traffic (and traffic delays) there would be if there was a mandatory evacuation and I had to head back home to Cary. If the storm is headed this way after the weekend, would it be prudent to get ahead of a mandatory evacuation and leave early, or wait as long as I can to see if an evacuation even happens. I hope I am explaining my thoughts clearly.

I was evacuated from the Outer Banks many years ago. The beach locals are the pros at this stuff and many stay put. I expect they will guide you at your hotel - unless you will be in a home there. With a mandatory, they take into account roughly how long it will take to get visitors out of the beach area, and so they give you a few hours to get out. As you may know, it's usually preceded by a voluntary - this will give you time to make your decision to leave or wait until the mandatory is called. Although with this storm, if it looks like a beach hit, I'd be surprised if they do a voluntary. As to traffic, if they have to, they will switch the roads to one direction away from the beach. They've got this stuff down to a fine art!


I used to work for the Salvation Army, and years ago, in hotel mgmt., so l always worked with local/state/fed emergency management teams on this sort of situation. Our hotel was command central for some agencies and I assisted with bringing in volunteers for hurricane Floyd. I share this to let you know that these agencies have been in full swing for probably a week and multi agencies from across the state will already have plans in place - they do regular drills for this throughout the year. So if things change quickly, there will be help nearby.


You could keep an eye on their Facebook page(?). Have you downloaded this app https://readync.org/EN/index.html ?


I hope your vacation isn't interrupted.
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Old 09-05-2017, 04:57 PM
 
Location: Near the Coast SWCT
83,500 posts, read 75,234,500 times
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Nice to see some good posts in this thread. Hoping for the best. Another thread with updates here if it helps.

//www.city-data.com/forum/hurri...l#post49428607
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