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All I will say is at the rate this is going, the economy especially small businesses, will be absolutely destroyed. That's going to have incredible impacts and I hope we don't look back and say we overreacted.
I am all for saving lives but actions are being taken due to panic and we may end up regretting it. Either way we lose unfortunately.
Hate to bring up flu because I know people get annoyed about it for some reason, but tons of people get flu and don't get tested. They spread it to others. Lots of people die. Three died in NC last week.
I get it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by m378
There has been so much panic over this that I honestly think it is subconsciously convincing people that no matter who you are, you're going to end up in a hospital on a ventilator if you get coronavirus. I'm guilty of it myself, but then I step back and think about the reality.
Isn't it possible that the panic isn't from the virus itself, but the leadership vacuum guiding the ship? I don't mean to make this political (and I am not obviously blaming Trump for a virus) but he owns the response, which has been somewhere between all time inept at best (he quite literally thought he could jedi mind trick tweet this thing away) to down right malicious (latest reports that the WH squashed testing back in January because testing would prove/disprove it had made it here and that would be bad for the election). Our president hates uncomfortable truths....especially when he can't PR speak them away.
The coverup is always worse than the "crime" and in the case of an illness, you can't delete emails to make it go away. You can't shred documents and have it miss. Science and nature and biology literally dont give a you know what about your feelings. I think most people with a couple firing synapses who just want to get on with their daily lives would have reacted quite normally if they were told ~2 months ago "hey, this thing is coming. Don't panic. We have infrastructure in place to battle it. Keep common sense in your daily life with regards to hygiene and the support structure is in place as people need it"
Instead we got "its 15 cases and it will be zero soon"......
Quote:
Originally Posted by m378
There are just over 3100 deaths in China and the death rate is decreasing. This is out of 1.3 BILLION people. That's an insanely low death rate if you look at entire population versus the relatively few that got tested and were positive. 1000 deaths in Italy, population 60M - yes it's higher than China, but still very low.
China largely got it in one province and the government locked down a city bigger than NYC in less than 48 hours. If we had coronavirus in NYC and locked it down the same way they did, I bet spread to say, LA or Denver or even here would largely be mitigated just the same. We don't work that way short of martial law.
Quote:
Originally Posted by m378
I'm sorry. I know others don't agree but I still think there's a lot of insanity around what is going on. We are extremely lucky that this rarely affects children, and is a minor inconvenience for most healthy people. It could be soooo much worse.
There is insanity. No doubt about it. There is also a ton of apathy on the other side which is not just insane, but potentially dangerous. But what there is more of, I think, is huge swath of people who aren't freaking out, but also not blowing this off like its just another cold and flu season. Which is where that void of leadership really stands out.
Quote:
Originally Posted by m378
I am fully prepared to admit I was wrong if more people start dying. There are still lots of unknowns, but I personally don't believe it warrants the panic. That's just my personal opinion and I know lots don't agree.
Whatever your opinion, it's good practice that's for sure.
I don't think anyone needs to admit they were wrong or right. There is no "winner" in this "game" because it isn't a game. As I said previously, I'm waiting for us to catch up on the timeline (namely Italy's) to see what happens here. We had a ton of time to mitigate (although not avoid completely) some of the impact that I think is coming and we collectively ignored it and our leadership tried to double speak away something that can't be seen and can't be chased away with weapons or money.
We just dumped 1.5T into the Market and it still had the third largest single day loss ever. What magic bullet do we have after that? Negative interest rates? I lived in Asia for 8 years, many of those years Japan had negative interest rates. They aren't a good thing for most everyone unless you owe a bunch of money to creditors.
All I will say is at the rate this is going, the economy especially small businesses, will be absolutely destroyed. That's going to have incredible impacts and I hope we don't look back and say we overreacted.
I am all for saving lives but actions are being taken due to panic and we may end up regretting it. Either way we lose unfortunately.
If all of these "overreactions" stop the spread of the virus, it will appear as if we overreacted because nothing will happen. It's not like when everyone freaks out before a storm where the preparation doesn't affect the outcome (i.e., the storm will happen or not happen no matter what people do). The steps we are taking now directly impact the outcome of the pandemic when it's all said and done.
Isn't it possible that the panic isn't from the virus itself, but the leadership vacuum guiding the ship?
NC leadership did not recommend for schools to close, and look what's happening, mainly due to panicking parent pressure. Closing schools is going to affect staffing at medical centers, which is not what we need if this gets as bad as people think.
Again so many unknowns - for all we know this could start affecting children. It's hard because it's always "by then it will be too late". But I think we need to go on what we currently know, and what (little) guidance we get. What else can you do?
I think that's likely worldwide. I mean, how is it possible that we only have 1,600 cases out of 350 million people? I think the number is far higher and many people are just not getting tested because they think it's a cold or normal flu.
If all of these "overreactions" stop the spread of the virus, it will appear as if we overreacted because nothing will happen. It's not like when everyone freaks out before a storm where the preparation doesn't affect the outcome (i.e., the storm will happen or not happen no matter what people do). The steps we are taking now directly impact the outcome of the pandemic when it's all said and done.
Yes.
People keep comparing it to the flu, which has a vastly lower death rate AND THERE IS A FLU VAX. Yes, many people forego it but the vax helps not just to keep people from getting flu, it helps with herd immunity. There are also anti virals for the flu. There's NO treatment for this right now. CV is also way more contagious than the flu as far as they understand it right now. The guy on the Jazz gave it to his teammate just from casual contact. I live with 3 other people, had the flu last month and no one else got it. Same thing happened last time I had the flu 15 years ago.
Also, let's face it - there's only going to be more of these viruses coming down the pike. This is not a drill, let's figure out how to deal with this kind of thing now.
Isn't it possible that the panic isn't from the virus itself, but the leadership vacuum guiding the ship? I don't mean to make this political (and I am not obviously blaming Trump for a virus) but he owns the response, which has been somewhere between all time inept at best (he quite literally thought he could jedi mind trick tweet this thing away) to down right malicious (latest reports that the WH squashed testing back in January because testing would prove/disprove it had made it here and that would be bad for the election). Our president hates uncomfortable truths....especially when he can't PR speak them away.
The coverup is always worse than the "crime" and in the case of an illness, you can't delete emails to make it go away. You can't shred documents and have it miss. Science and nature and biology literally dont give a you know what about your feelings. I think most people with a couple firing synapses who just want to get on with their daily lives would have reacted quite normally if they were told ~2 months ago "hey, this thing is coming. Don't panic. We have infrastructure in place to battle it. Keep common sense in your daily life with regards to hygiene and the support structure is in place as people need it"
Instead we got "its 15 cases and it will be zero soon"......
China largely got it in one province and the government locked down a city bigger than NYC in less than 48 hours. If we had coronavirus in NYC and locked it down the same way they did, I bet spread to say, LA or Denver or even here would largely be mitigated just the same. We don't work that way short of martial law.
There is insanity. No doubt about it. There is also a ton of apathy on the other side which is not just insane, but potentially dangerous. But what there is more of, I think, is huge swath of people who aren't freaking out, but also not blowing this off like its just another cold and flu season. Which is where that void of leadership really stands out.
I don't think anyone needs to admit they were wrong or right. There is no "winner" in this "game" because it isn't a game. As I said previously, I'm waiting for us to catch up on the timeline (namely Italy's) to see what happens here. We had a ton of time to mitigate (although not avoid completely) some of the impact that I think is coming and we collectively ignored it and our leadership tried to double speak away something that can't be seen and can't be chased away with weapons or money.
We just dumped 1.5T into the Market and it still had the third largest single day loss ever. What magic bullet do we have after that? Negative interest rates? I lived in Asia for 8 years, many of those years Japan had negative interest rates. They aren't a good thing for most everyone unless you owe a bunch of money to creditors.
The narrative was always going to be that we had a leadership vacuum from the media outlets that think we have a leadership vacuum. The media outlets that support the president agree with the measures we've taken and say we would have been worse off without them. I have seen very few coronavirus related reports that haven't been politically charged. Our system is so polarized that it's not even intentional anymore. There's an automatic response to take credit or place blame for everything or add it to the political calculus. Face it, a large part of our government has a vested interest in encouraging a panic and making this situation seem as hopeless as possible. That's not saying they want people to die, but they don't want to say or do anything that could in any way lessen the political fallout for the other side. It's sickening really. One side using the virus response as a vindication and the other sees it as a reason for condemnation.
Japan is relatively close to ground zero, had some of the earliest exposure but currently shows only 639 cases? It's because Japan only tests the sick who go to hospitals to get the test. It's simply futile to test those who show no signs of needing medical attention. I think they're holding out hope to keep the Olympics so they're working to keep their numbers down. From a practical standpoint I think the way the pandemic ends is when it burns itself and we develop immunity rather trying to avoid it for as long as possible.
I have a bit of a cough right now and I was just telling my wife that if it is corona, it would be nice to self quarantine my 14 days, recover, develop some immunity to the virus and to just stop worrying about it so much. I might even be able to help out some of the people who aren't that lucky and need a meal or food brought to their house or even a ride to the doctor. .
The narrative was always going to be that we had a leadership vacuum from the media outlets that think we have a leadership vacuum. The media outlets that support the president agree with the measures we've taken and say we would have been worse off without them. I have seen very few coronavirus related reports that haven't been politically charged. Our system is so polarized that it's not even intentional anymore. There's an automatic response to take credit or place blame for everything or add it to the political calculus. Face it, a large part of our government has a vested interest in encouraging a panic and making this situation seem as hopeless as possible. That's not saying they want people to die, but they don't want to say or do anything that could in any way lessen the political fallout for the other side. It's sickening really. One side using the virus response as a vindication and the other sees it as a reason for condemnation.
Japan is relatively close to ground zero, had some of the earliest exposure but currently shows only 639 cases? It's because Japan only tests the sick who go to hospitals to get the test. It's simply futile to test those who show no signs of needing medical attention. I think they're holding out hope to keep the Olympics so they're working to keep their numbers down. From a practical standpoint I think the way the pandemic ends is when it burns itself and we develop immunity rather trying to avoid it for as long as possible.
I have a bit of a cough right now and I was just telling my wife that if it is corona, it would be nice to self quarantine my 14 days, recover, develop some immunity to the virus and to just stop worrying about it so much. I might even be able to help out some of the people who aren't that lucky and need a meal or food brought to their house or even a ride to the doctor. .
The tribalism of today’s politics doesn’t help any fruitful debate or discussion. The entrenching that has occurred over the last forty years is a travesty to this reader.
But this isn’t just media narrative nor is it politics. Billion dollar sports leagues don’t shutdown over “narratives”. Nor does March Madness. Nevermind the crowd limits, cultural spots (museums, national parks)....I mean did I see Disney Land and World are closing? How often does that happen?
Yes there is politics, yes there are under and over reactors....but if it were merely that (or even a large portion of the reason) people wouldn’t be willing to lose massive amounts of money over that.
This is a legit crisis of confidence in the business world, in the markets, in society in general because there is no direction, no leadership, a gulf of facts simply missing. Knowledge is power and all that...
Japan is testing like us, next to not at all. South Korea is testing more daily than we have cumulatively.
The narrative was always going to be that we had a leadership vacuum from the media outlets that think we have a leadership vacuum. The media outlets that support the president agree with the measures we've taken and say we would have been worse off without them. I have seen very few coronavirus related reports that haven't been politically charged. Our system is so polarized that it's not even intentional anymore. There's an automatic response to take credit or place blame for everything or add it to the political calculus. Face it, a large part of our government has a vested interest in encouraging a panic and making this situation seem as hopeless as possible. That's not saying they want people to die, but they don't want to say or do anything that could in any way lessen the political fallout for the other side. It's sickening really. One side using the virus response as a vindication and the other sees it as a reason for condemnation.
Japan is relatively close to ground zero, had some of the earliest exposure but currently shows only 639 cases? It's because Japan only tests the sick who go to hospitals to get the test. It's simply futile to test those who show no signs of needing medical attention. I think they're holding out hope to keep the Olympics so they're working to keep their numbers down. From a practical standpoint I think the way the pandemic ends is when it burns itself and we develop immunity rather trying to avoid it for as long as possible.
I have a bit of a cough right now and I was just telling my wife that if it is corona, it would be nice to self quarantine my 14 days, recover, develop some immunity to the virus and to just stop worrying about it so much. I might even be able to help out some of the people who aren't that lucky and need a meal or food brought to their house or even a ride to the doctor. .
You have some excellent points. There's no doubt that hysterical panic is ruling the day. Easy to blame Trump for everything.
Wall Street has suddenly awakened to the realization that as China suffers short term economic distress, it will pull the world into a deep recession. Maybe and maybe not. It seems that China is rapidly seeing a decrease in Covid 19 illnesses and deaths, as the virus makes its way around the globe. Not only are we experiencing a health crisis, we are quickly plunging into a potentially severe economic downturn. As China recovers and ramps its manufacturing sector back up (it already has in some areas) it will find a smaller base of customers in the US and elsewhere.
Monetary policy won't mitigate this crisis, and the Fed seems aware of this. Congress needs to step up and pass a large and comprehensive fiscal stimulus package.
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