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I think the new start date is now November 17th, but still no confirmation on patient zero.
I had seen similar. So if accurate, that means there was basically a 44 day "gap" to this timeline (using 12/31/2019 as the date China reported to the WHO).
It's more than that. It's hospitals being overwhelmed by people with severe pneumonia, which is what this causes. Obviously, people are still getting sick and injured and dying from other things while coronavirus is going around. What are we going to do with all those people if all the hospital beds are already occupied by people on ventilators?
I think that is part of the math that isn't getting the attention it needs.
Supply and Demand are key components to this...another is geographic spread. Especially given the approach to healthcare we have taken since the 1970s.
1. There simply isn't the availability of hospital beds or tools (ventilators) SHOULD this thing turn like we have seen in other countries.
2. Individual cities/areas may have enough to squeak by....but what about areas where there are a couple of level 1 trauma centers in a couple hundred mile radius?
I can see a situation where as a Federal unit, the United States weathers this storm efficiently while at the same time; individual areas, say NYC, LA, NoLA and similar get blasted but also remoter/rural areas that don't have the resources to manage it.
As I have said before, I will be happy if much of what I have discussed here ends up being wrong.
Illnesses are local; it will be who you come into contact within your immediate area that determines if you get exposed to the virus or not. Common sense measures emphasize a 6ft to 10ft distance is optimal when one is out and about. It doesn't mean if you are 4 ft away from someone else you will get infected, it's about minimizing close contact to the extent you can, as often as you can.
By contrast, that scene at O'hare airport illustrates the nonsensical act of forcing all flights into the U.S. to be completed by <exact date/time> and it was not well-planned and gave people only 24 to 48 hrs to complete all travel. That just created a herd of cattle standing together in an enclosed space because the infrastructure couldn't handle the unnatural overflow of flights, customs, baggage claim. How stupid was that!? Gee, thanks current administration who doesn't think things through and just reacts.
I think both of the following conditions can be true.
1. We may never know the true human impact of this disease. ...
Ideally, we won't. That sounds strange, but if social distancing and lockdowns work we will never how bad it could have been. That is the fervent hope right now. So if our measures work there will be tons of Monday morning QB-ing "we didn't need to go through all this" but honestly scientists don't much care. I have a friend who is high ranking at a public utility (talk to the governor high ranking) and when this broke they took the indispensible people and put them on two different teams that aren't allowed to have contact with each other so they can keep the lights on and gas flowing. There's a lot going on behind the scenes that people will never know about and that too will make them say "this was no big deal" (I HOPE).
As far as the effects on individuals and the hows and whys, that is a question that can't be answered now. The strain is called "novel" coronavirus for a reason. Most colds are corona viruses, but this one has not been seen and therefore not been studied. They actually think a vaccine will happen fast, but its effectiveness won't be judged for awhile. These are the problems with a new virus. What they do know is it's extemely contagious. I think we all know if a co worker shows up with a cold we're probably not gonna catch it. If your co worker has shown up with corona you have a very good chance of catching it.
As an aside, a friend's child got really sick a few years ago. The symptoms would come and go and this went on for a week or so and then they really ramped up and she started losing a considerable amount of weight (not good for kids). Parents finally took her to UNC who did a massive blood work up on her and they told the parents - bottom line - "we are literally seeing new viruses like this all the time - this one is not mono but it's similar. We can't really keep ahead of it, but she will be fine"....and she was. But it was a months long illness. So it's kind of scary world out there and they've been telling us for years we're "too clean", just obsessed with it, and it's breaking down our natural immunities. I remember during a lice outbreak in NY when my kids were little a friend told me her doctor laughed at her when her kids got lice and said "you people all think you're so clean and that's the way to go and you can't catch anything. You're not helping anything with your cleanliness obsession".
Big Business Gets A Pass On Sick Leave In White House-Dem Coronavirus Aid Deal
The problem is, there’s a fairly huge exemption in the bill: Big businesses don’t have to comply. Companies with more than 500 employees are not required to give workers sick leave or family leave under the bill. And small companies with 50 employers or fewer can seek hardship exemptions from the policy, narrowing its impact even more. Millions of workers are left out, increasing the risk that they’ll do their jobs while sick and further the spread of this virus.
Ideally, we won't. That sounds strange, but if social distancing and lockdowns work we will never how bad it could have been. That is the fervent hope right now. So if our measures work there will be tons of Monday morning QB-ing "we didn't need to go through all this" but honestly scientists don't much care. I have a friend who is high ranking at a public utility (talk to the governor high ranking) and when this broke they took the indispensible people and put them on two different teams that aren't allowed to have contact with each other so they can keep the lights on and gas flowing. There's a lot going on behind the scenes that people will never know about and that too will make them say "this was no big deal" (I HOPE).
Agreed. I'm actually kinda surprised that our Federal government hasn't done something similar. I know when it comes to say a State of the Union, there is always someone sequestered off on their own if the Capital were to be attacked. Seems having POTUS and VP and many of the Secretaries in such close contact for press conferences is potentially playing with fire.
Maybe its the optics and thus they aren't doing it.
Quote:
Originally Posted by twingles
As far as the effects on individuals and the hows and whys, that is a question that can't be answered now. The strain is called "novel" coronavirus for a reason. Most colds are corona viruses, but this one has not been seen and therefore not been studied. They actually think a vaccine will happen fast, but its effectiveness won't be judged for awhile. These are the problems with a new virus. What they do know is it's extemely contagious. I think we all know if a co worker shows up with a cold we're probably not gonna catch it. If your co worker has shown up with corona you have a very good chance of catching it.
Correct. Coronaviruses aren't new. This strain is.
I spent 8 years in Jakarta Indonesia, which has its own "wet live animal" market. I have been to a wet live animal market in China. I am actually surprised these "new strains mutating and jumping species" doesn't occur more frequently from those places. I am not claiming cultural superiority or anything of the like. But there is a reason why in many places there are super tight regulations on animal markets and you know, not living next to where you keep your bats/birds/fish/chickens/pigs/dogs (not as pets, as food) etc.
Quote:
Originally Posted by twingles
As an aside, a friend's child got really sick a few years ago. The symptoms would come and go and this went on for a week or so and then they really ramped up and she started losing a considerable amount of weight (not good for kids). Parents finally took her to UNC who did a massive blood work up on her and they told the parents - bottom line - "we are literally seeing new viruses like this all the time - this one is not mono but it's similar. We can't really keep ahead of it, but she will be fine"....and she was. But it was a months long illness. So it's kind of scary world out there and they've been telling us for years we're "too clean", just obsessed with it, and it's breaking down our natural immunities. I remember during a lice outbreak in NY when my kids were little a friend told me her doctor laughed at her when her kids got lice and said "you people all think you're so clean and that's the way to go and you can't catch anything. You're not helping anything with your cleanliness obsession".
Our (Americans) obsession with Antibiotics is part of the same issue. You go to a doctor in Europe when you're sick, you dont get any meds if its a viral thing. Here, its almost like "I went to the doctor and was sick....therefore they must give me an Rx for something".
It turns out common sense isn't very common, and people are resistant to new ideas and learning new ways. Introduce a highly variable situation that ramps up anxiety into panic realms and trying to use logic on those folks is well neigh impossible.
Where I work, we have at least 33% less medical staff to work starting tomorrow. How do we handle that?
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