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January 2000. Zero chance of accumulation. They couldn't stress this enough.
We had 27" in North Raleigh.
Ground temp is irrelevant. It's not June or July.
It's not irrelevant. You're leaving out a huuuuuuuge part of the math however. Snowfall rate.
If the ground is above freezing, which is clearly is, snow must fall at a rate fast enough to overcome melting.
3-4 inches over over an 8 hour period (my weather app which is usually spot on says snow will start tomorrow around 5PM and end around 1AM Friday) is a rate of half an inch and hour. At that rate, snow will melt (on "warm" surfaces) faster than it falls. Even if we get 8 inches, that is still only an inch an hour....
Yes, if we were to get a storm that dropped 2 feet, it would clearly accumulate as the snow fall rate is greater than the melting ability of the relatively warm surface.
Is anyone calling for a major event here? Local or national weather?
I've waited and waited for snow and so has our daughter. Meanwhile there are daffodils and forsythia in bloom.
We make plans for her 7th birthday party, first big one ever with friends and not just family. Pay the place, buy and order all kinds of stuff..she's sooo excited... and it's this Saturday.
As much as the snow-lover in me *hates* to say it... please don't let it snow!
I've waited and waited for snow and so has our daughter. Meanwhile there are daffodils and forsythia in bloom.
We make plans for her 7th birthday party, first big one ever with friends and not just family. Pay the place, buy and order all kinds of stuff..she's sooo excited... and it's this Saturday.
As much as the snow-lover in me *hates* to say it... please don't let it snow!
When we lived in NY I always had my February kid's b'day party in March. Never failed to get a blizzard around the time I WOULD have had her party.
Chances are if we got enough snow to affect Saturday, the place would be closed anyway and you could re-book.
Again, the key is the snowfall rate, as discussed above, and meteorologists are getting pretty good at predicting heavy snow events from highly dynamic storm systems, particularly those with convective instability and strong mesoscale forcing. So, the next time you’re tempted to say, “it’s too warm for the snow to stick,” just remember that there are very complex atmospheric dynamics and thermodynamics involved. Sure, light snow or snow flurries falling with temperatures of 35º will not accumulate. However, if we’re forecasting heavy snow and marginal temperatures (“around” freezing), you might want to revisit your weather history and consider that some of the biggest snowstorms on record occurred during an otherwise mild weather pattern.
If the snowfall rate is high enough to overcome the ground temp, you can get accumulation with relatively warm ground. If it isn't, you don't.
So again, I ask you sir (or maam)....is anyone predicting snowfall rates of 1.5 inches/hr or more (1.5 inches/hr is typically considered a high rate of snowfall)
So again, I ask you sir (or maam)....is anyone predicting snowfall rates of 1.5 inches/hr or more (1.5 inches/hr is typically considered a high rate of snowfall)
Most I've seen for the Triangle is 1-2" total snowfall over the entire event. And even that seems to be pushing it.
Most I've seen for the Triangle is 1-2" total snowfall over the entire event. And even that seems to be pushing it.
Which is basically what I have been seeing too....which is barely even news worthy from my seat.
No one tell BigKahuna, but here is what Meteorologist Don "Big Weather" Schwenneker said on ABC11. Again...shhhhh!
Quote:
Bottom Line: Will it stick around?: No. Friday's weather should melt most of it away and ground temperatures are too warm to allow the winter weather to stick around too long.
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