Triangle real estate keeps going nuts (Raleigh: broker, gangs, licensed)
Raleigh, Durham, Chapel Hill, CaryThe Triangle Area
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You’re correct, this isn’t a “housing based recession”. It is a world wide global great depression coming. Something the world has never seen before. You’ve only dipped a few toes in the pool compared to what’s coming when you’re thrown into the deep end. The **** storm hasn’t even hit yet. But it will.... I don’t think those posters here are grasping the idea of 30% plus unemployment. All industry across-the-board is literally shutting down and closing their doors and Many Will never re-open again. The longer this lasts the greater that number will be. The government cannot save us from this mess.
I already posted here that I backed out of my home purchase. A home I looked for for six months. And yes there was a shortage of inventory and there were six other people that wanted the home I was purchasing. Even for the buyers trying now to buy, those days are going to come to an end soon. There might be a few buyers left in the pipe that view this as a passing winter storm but reality will set in over the coming months. We’re not just going to snap back from this mess. Just today I heard the government has a Plan B in place, that entails dealing with this for over 24 months. They’re not saying it’s going to last that long but they anticipate that it might. They project this virus MAY mutate become more deadly and continue to circle the globe. Your life, my life, your children’s life has all changed for the foreseeable future you just haven’t recognized it yet.
Respectfully, you're predicting something that we literally cannot predict, only fear.
What makes times likes these so much worse is having someone forecasting the end of the world as we know it. I'm not bullish on us bouncing back quickly from this, intelligent people understand we're entering into both uncharted and very choppy waters. But I don't know if this is going to be a 10-15 year event, or a 6-18 month event. And we all have to keep living, not holding our breath and anticipating total devastation. Your suggesting that this is a pathogen that will potentially evolve and continue circling the globe reinfecting people is pure conjecture and not at all rooted in any scientifically valid data. And even if that is true, the world will eventually come to its end anyway, so you might as well at least be living someplace you like while it's happening.
If I was actively looking for a house and still had all/most of my down payment available, I'd definitely still be shopping.
Respectfully, you're predicting something that we literally cannot predict, only fear.
What makes times likes these so much worse is having someone forecasting the end of the world as we know it. I'm not bullish on us bouncing back quickly from this, intelligent people understand we're entering into both uncharted and very choppy waters. But I don't know if this is going to be a 10-15 year event, or a 6-18 month event. And we all have to keep living, not holding our breath and anticipating total devastation. Your suggesting that this is a pathogen that will potentially evolve and continue circling the globe reinfecting people is pure conjecture and not at all rooted in any scientifically valid data. And even if that is true, the world will eventually come to its end anyway, so you might as well at least be living someplace you like while it's happening.
If I was actively looking for a house and still had all/most of my down payment available, I'd definitely still be shopping.
While I can't speak to the "reinfecting" part of your point, researchers are already tracking its evolution.
Here's a link to a scientist who has been tracking the "various RNA evolution" which he is gathering from government reporting to track "which strain" is impacting which hot spot. He has an interactive map on there which can pinpoint, through RNA in the virus, where the "strain from Wuhan went" and where the "Iranian strain went" etc etc etc.
Here is part of an article by Dr. Mike Walden, today:
North Carolina’s economy will be wracked by 250,000 job losses – some 70,000 more than the entire total reported across the state in January – by the expanding devastation being wreaked by the coronavirus, according to a new estimate from NC State economist Dr. Mike Walden. “Economists have been increasing their estimates of commercial and employment damage,” Walden told WRAL TechWire early Monday. “The increase in job losses could top 250,000 in North Carolina.”
“Like most economists, it has been difficult for me to forecast something we have never seen before,” Walden said when asked why he had upped his estimate. “But as the days have unfolded, things have gotten worse – hence the more dire forecast.” While the 2008-2009 financial crisis sent the US economy into a tailspin over several months, the coronavirus has proved to be a rapidly growing contagion both in terms of health and economic impact. “The economic damage is occurring rapidly – much more so than in the Great Recession,” Walden said, referring to 2008-2009.
This crisis is moving faster than the economists can track it vs the 2008-2009 crisis, so likely continued downward pressure on listings and showings.
well, as it relates to consumer confidence - of course. As it relates to intentionally stopping the US Economy (which is where STL Fed Chair mentions the 30% UE, intentionally doing it to blunt the virus), absolutely.
I'm surprised the # is only 250K, since we're allowing folks to immediately apply for UE. surely the restaurant, hospitality, and retail industries employ more than 250K hourly workers in NC.
My prediction is Homes in the lower range will become more popular than ever as that’s what the vast majority of people who were probably able to finance 300,000+ homes will be able to afford. And also feel safe purchasing. You could end up with a squeeze type scenario where homes see above 300,000 sit on the market for months and homes below like 200,000 are in high demand. Homes that would sell for cash will also be in high demand. Now I know most of you will see there’s not very many homes on the market around 200,000 or less, give it a few months they’ll start popping up here in there and then the floodgates will open. The market will settle in where the vast majority of buyers can afford to buy. With the economy having the reset button hit, and a lot of us are going to be in scenarios where we’re going to have to take whatever type of job or employment or income we can get, that range is probably going to be from 150 to 200,000 for the every day, and working person.
My prediction is Homes in the lower range will become more popular than ever as that’s what the vast majority of people who were probably able to finance 300,000+ homes will be able to afford. And also feel safe purchasing. You could end up with a squeeze type scenario where homes see above 300,000 sit on the market for months and homes below like 200,000 are in high demand. Homes that would sell for cash will also be in high demand. Now I know most of you will see there’s not very many homes on the market around 200,000 or less, give it a few months they’ll start popping up here in there and then the floodgates will open. The market will settle in where the vast majority of buyers can afford to buy. With the economy having the reset button hit, and a lot of us are going to be in scenarios where we’re going to have to take whatever type of job or employment or income we can get, that range is probably going to be from 150 to 200,000 for the every day, and working person.
And the virus could also mutate causing people to become flesh-eating zombies. The world will fall into chaos. Water and gasoline will become the new currency. Gangs of roving bandits and raiders will roam the wastelands...
At 6:04 Carlin says, "What would you do if you were the planet, trying to defend against this pesky troublesome species. Let's see... hmmm. Viruses. Viruses might be good. They seem vulnerable to viruses. Viruses are tricky, always mutating, forming new strains whenever a vaccine is developed ..."
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