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I currently have three sellers waiting out the stay-at-home period to list.
.......All three are in the same neighborhood; very popular with UNC medical residents; who will be moving here mid-summer regardless and will need a place to live.
Some demand is static, like that based on medical residents. I assume Chapel Hill should continuue to do well.
Someone keeps asking me for the number of new listings? Bo?
Nobody can go by the numbers and what they’re doing right now. All the, “experts” out there who have studied past recessions and the great depression will tell you the peak of what we went through now will hit in about 18 months from now. Meaning the damage we’re doing now while it is felt now, won’t reach its pivotal point, assuming there would be one, for a minimum of 18 months. Those of you who think everything’s gonna go back to normal as if this was a passing winter storm, need to read history. We are in for a long economic decline as is the rest of the world. Thanks to China and their bat soup.
Nobody knows anything. Anyone predicting anything is just speculating at best.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Rvguru6338
Those of you who think everything’s gonna go back to normal as if this was a passing winter storm, need to read history. We are in for a long economic decline as is the rest of the world.
And those of you who think you alone know everything, don't.
Who knows what will happen, but there is certainly plenty of evidence that this is different than the typical recession and job loss. Makes it even harder to predict what will happen, and there will be some permanent shifts in how people live their lives (Millions of people are realizing food delivery services can be convenient, for one), but generally the economy was strong going into this and an external event that was was not related is causing the problem. Things could bounce back much more quickly than last time. Much will depend on how many businesses find a way to make it through.
Someone keeps asking me for the number of new listings? Bo?
it would appear....
Infosparks, last 5 years for March (rounded #'s): 4500, 4900, 5300, 5000, 4800. (and I would say look - even as # of sales continued to grow, we were down each of last 2 March's)
Paragon, New Listings last 30 days: 2,739
Paragon, All Pending, Status Date* since 3/1/20: 4,101
*Status Date is definitely inexact as it would include homes that went Contingent before 3/1 but Pending afterwards. I would imagine (but would have to ask ANielsen or the vendors) it also includes any change that occurred (could be a closing date change?) since 3/1. The "I would imagine" is what they call "speculation".
We pulled out on a combination of health and economic concerns. Sure we will have a job with all of this... I have no doubt about that. But will we have our lives? Will our families have theirs? This virus is serious and every single healthcare worker knows it. The spread is something that has never seen and its impact is going to last for a long time. We are going to be contained to our homes for months if not years. You don't need to be an economic expert to know what that will cause.
With all due respect to your medical training, the bolded part (about being quarantined to our homes for "years") cannot and will not happen in this country, especially for a disease at the current mortality rate.
Ah, 2006, when we filled out about two pages saying we made X, the lender approved us for like 4-5X on a new home with just a credit report and said we didn’t need to sell or old one that we still owed 70% on.
that's how I got my current house - a stated income loan. The "difference" was I owed 70% on a slow-growing asset, not that it had "gained" 30% in 2 years, and that I had a 800 credit score. It helped that I wasn't closing for 90 days, and managed to get the current house on the market and close both the same day.
There is zero sign in the official lending markets of those days coming back.
In 2006, nationwide, folks were getting first loans and "bridge" loans (like above) with far less credentials.
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