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We went out shopping today to restock our food supply and it was interesting to see that some people were taking precautions while others didn't seem to have a care in the world and were not social distancing. I had to halt a fast approaching Spectrum or AT&T sales person and ask that they not come near me.
While I don't expect everyone to exercise extreme paranoia, but its those same "I don't care" people who will be the cause of a major outbreak that affects all of us even more and for a longer period of time.
Watch this video about how the Coronavirus spreads and affects you lungs or even kill you. No one is immune and it doesn't take much to be exposed to the virus.
Warning: this video is long and does contain foul language but he does a very good job of explaining how the Coronavirus kills people....and sometimes within hours.
2k deaths so far...yep it’s a conspiracy and overhyped. When Russia closes borders and the Great People’s Republic restricts the Americans who bring research and money you know it’s all BS....
presumably this post came from a non-CD Forum. If it is, better to link it. If it's not, is it an anonymous forum, or this Doctor is known?
As to NC/Triangle, what I "see" is a very high % of compliance in social distancing and recommended practices. If we go from 10% (folks that do it everyday anyway) to 80% compliance - that's really good. That should severely blunt the transmission. Let's celebrate the high % of compliance, and consider whether the non-compliers are high-risk or low-risk.
if we can assume (maybe we can't) that "worst case scenarios" are not going to get any worse, the link says
Quote:
The national death toll is put at 38,242–162,106. The projections show the crisis peaking April 14 nationally, with 1,149–4,844 deaths per day, and 116,349–466,970 hospitalizations, 16,490–73,607 of them in ICUs, requiring 8,909–39,835 invasive ventilators.
there's not anyplace that's relaxing restrictions in the next 10 days. Great progress can be made to reduce the worst case as we continue to improve our practices and testing.
So if the max need is 40K ventilators, why would NY need 40K?
New York City’s ICU capacity shows the city was ill-equipped to handle a deadly outbreak compared to many far-less densely populated areas.
The Big Apple’s intensive-care bed capacity of about 2.7 per 10,000 residents over the age of 15 — 1,800 beds total — ranks No. 220 on a list of 305 US hospital regions studied by The Washington Post and Columbia University Professor Adam Sacarny.
Many/most cities and states have begun to implement some form of distance from home requirement. The Triangle area counties and cities all did so, followed by a NC doing so across the state. This seems critical to avoid having a situation like that occurring in NYC and New York. If you wait until you have a crisis before issuing stay-at-home orders, like government officials in New York did, then you'll see terrible situations like those occurring in New York spreading elsewhere. And until there are testing kits widely available within the Triangle and North Carolina, lifting these orders will simply let virus outbreaks spread with no real way to contain it.
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
9,777 posts, read 15,786,780 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by BoBromhal
presumably this post came from a non-CD Forum. If it is, better to link it. If it's not, is it an anonymous forum, or this Doctor is known?
As to NC/Triangle, what I "see" is a very high % of compliance in social distancing and recommended practices. If we go from 10% (folks that do it everyday anyway) to 80% compliance - that's really good. That should severely blunt the transmission. Let's celebrate the high % of compliance, and consider whether the non-compliers are high-risk or low-risk.
if we can assume (maybe we can't) that "worst case scenarios" are not going to get any worse, the link says
there's not anyplace that's relaxing restrictions in the next 10 days. Great progress can be made to reduce the worst case as we continue to improve our practices and testing.
So if the max need is 40K ventilators, why would NY need 40K?
There are many different predicition ranges on how many ventilators will be needed. According to this article in Market Watch, "Those projections, gathered and analyzed by experts at Weill Cornell Medical College, McKinsey & Co. and the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, predict the need for 30,000 to 40,000 ventilators when the outbreak peaks in New York, Cuomo said."
Also, remember that NY currently has about 1/2 of the cases and will need many of them when it peaks in that area which will likely be before other areas peak.
as a COMPLETE layman on the effects of the virus ... I personally don't believe that, since we had our "mini-epicenter" with a Biogen conference, our kids have been out of school since March 13, and the amount of social distancing started then and has only increased since then.
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