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I follow the data in Massachusetts pretty closely. They have been averaging about 100-200 new cases a day for weeks now, BUT have more deaths than NC, usually in the 20-25 range per day. NC now sees 2000+ cases a day, and 5-15 deaths a day. They're far ahead of us with reopening.
I can't even begin to try and understand those differences. There is clearly a difference between how the data is being reported, and we can no longer say it's because "they wear masks in the northern states". There needs to be standardization on how the data is reported across the country, and locally as well. Otherwise the data is nearly useless and the general public will not trust what they see. Many people's issues around Covid aren't ingrained in politics as a lot of people think - many have trust issues because the data is all over the freaking place and there seems to be little desire to standardize and get real worthwhile data.
Speaking of masks, when should we seeing improvement in NC? The mandate has been in affect for a couple weeks now, and as far as I can tell tell the vast majority of people in the Triangle are doing a very good job wearing them in public.
Because they don't publicize it, The Thursday briefing SHOULD be a deep dive in CLI surveillance and what the various graphs COULD mean.
what do you make of page 5, including the narrative?
we see the steep increase in hospitalization beginning late March to 30%. But now, even as ED visits have increased since mid-May, the % hospitalized has dropped back to the low-mid 20's.
so this doesn't seem to jibe....
Quote:
Although the total number of people going to the emergency department with fever and respiratory
symptoms has gone down, the percentage of them that have to stay in the hospital for at least 24
hours has gone up. This suggests patients with milder COVID-like illness are either getting care
outside the ED or not seeking medical care.
The percentage of patients seen in the ED for COVID-like illness who were admitted to the hospital
INCREASED the week ending July 4, 2020.
what do you make of page 5, including the narrative?
we see the steep increase in hospitalization beginning late March to 30%. But now, even as ED visits have increased since mid-May, the % hospitalized has dropped back to the low-mid 20's.
so this doesn't seem to jibe....
So, as someone who has read this report every week since it has come out. My honest actual take on that is that DHHS is lazy.
They haven't changed that language in months. They change the graphs and update some words below them like 'INCREASE' or 'DECREASE' or what region or age group is affected. But some of the other text blocks later in the report aren't actually updated, probably because they assume no one is reading them.
It is funny you picked out that statement on page 5. It has driven me nuts for a long time because they haven't updated that language since early April when the data on the graph supported that statement.
Their QA has gotten a little lazy. It happens. You look at the same document so many times, you don't even read the words anymore. You need to rotate fresh eyes or have super-detail oriented people doing QA or things like this get left for months.
I follow the data in Massachusetts pretty closely. They have been averaging about 100-200 new cases a day for weeks now, BUT have more deaths than NC, usually in the 20-25 range per day. NC now sees 2000+ cases a day, and 5-15 deaths a day. They're far ahead of us with reopening.
I can't even begin to try and understand those differences. There is clearly a difference between how the data is being reported, and we can no longer say it's because "they wear masks in the northern states". There needs to be standardization on how the data is reported across the country, and locally as well. Otherwise the data is nearly useless and the general public will not trust what they see. Many people's issues around Covid aren't ingrained in politics as a lot of people think - many have trust issues because the data is all over the freaking place and there seems to be little desire to standardize and get real worthwhile data.
Speaking of masks, when should we seeing improvement in NC? The mandate has been in affect for a couple weeks now, and as far as I can tell tell the vast majority of people in the Triangle are doing a very good job wearing them in public.
So. Massachusetts makes no sense. I wish I had someone with real insight into what is going on there. The only thing I can figure in Massachusetts is that you can never recover from COVID. Because they are actually reporting these as 'day of death' cases. Based on other states that far in the curve, the MA death rate makes no sense. What I THINK might be happening is that they are counting anyone who ever HAD COVID and is now dying as a COVID death. Say someone is old an infirm and tested positive for ASYMPTOMATIC COVID in March, and theoretically cleared the virus. Now, it is July, and their base illness or age causes death, that is a COVID death. Nothing else makes sense.
OK. Now lets look at some other states REPORTING a high number of BACKLOG deaths. NJ has reported around 460 deaths in July (they only have had 1 or 2). Virginia (through yesterday) had reported about 200 deaths in July (they have had 17 by date of death). Even accounting for lag, these numbers are insane.
For NJ you would need to go all the way back into May to get that many. For Virginia you would need to extend well over a month in the past. These states are taking old backlogged deaths and reclassifying them as new COVID. Massachusetts is claiming that they still have 15-22 deaths a day from COVID. That is impossible. They only have 87 total people left in the ICU, that would clear them all out in 3-4 days.
NJ Date of Death. NJ is DONE DONE DONE. But they have reported almost 500 deaths in July. Can you find how far back to get 500 deaths on this?
Virginia and 200 deaths.... try and see how far back to find them.
All these graphs are sourced directly from each of the state's own health agencies.
So. Massachusetts makes no sense. I wish I had someone with real insight into what is going on there. The only thing I can figure in Massachusetts is that you can never recover from COVID. Because they are actually reporting these as 'day of death' cases. Based on other states that far in the curve, the MA death rate makes no sense. What I THINK might be happening is that they are counting anyone who ever HAD COVID and is now dying as a COVID death. Say someone is old an infirm and tested positive for ASYMPTOMATIC COVID in March, and theoretically cleared the virus. Now, it is July, and their base illness or age causes death, that is a COVID death. Nothing else makes sense.
OK. Now lets look at some other states REPORTING a high number of BACKLOG deaths. NJ has reported around 460 deaths in July (they only have had 1 or 2). Virginia (through yesterday) had reported about 200 deaths in July (they have had 17 by date of death). Even accounting for lag, these numbers are insane.
For NJ you would need to go all the way back into May to get that many. For Virginia you would need to extend well over a month in the past. These states are taking old backlogged deaths and reclassifying them as new COVID. Massachusetts is claiming that they still have 15-22 deaths a day from COVID. That is impossible. They only have 87 total people left in the ICU, that would clear them all out in 3-4 days.
NJ Date of Death. NJ is DONE DONE DONE. But they have reported almost 500 deaths in July. Can you find how far back to get 500 deaths on this?
Virginia and 200 deaths.... try and see how far back to find them.
All these graphs are sourced directly from each of the state's own health agencies.
Thanks for giving me the opportunity to say some of the things I think out loud. Some of this is driving me crazy. 1+1=400. I really do wish I had insight into what is going on in MA, just purely look at their reporting and it doesn't make sense. Maybe there is a logical reason that I am just not aware of. But when you only have 87 current ICU and 44 intubations STATEWIDE. It is not reasonable to have 20 deaths a day, there are not that many critical cases. Unless you are either providing no hospital care anymore (unlikely) or you are now unable to ever recover from COVID.
So I have to fall back on, if you have ever had COVID in MA and subsequently die, you will forever be a COVID death. Because it doesn't align to what other states in similar spots report.
The data, and the way it is presented, has been driving me crazy-cakes for months now.
Have you figured out how the heck NCDHHS gets their daily Positive Test Percentage?
I thought I had figured out how to find the number and percentage of repeat positives (same person tests over and over and over trying to get negatives to get back to work - often 6-12 times) using the data at the bottom of https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/about-data . "New Cases" is supposed to really be separate, new people, according to NCDHHS, but the number of positives and the percentage of positives is literally just positives and includes repeat positives.
It was working, I thought, then it made even less sense. I started looking two weeks ago so the data would be a little more settled.
6/26
10% positive of 21,697 tests = 2170 positives. There were 1635 New Cases. So that seems to indicate 535 more positives than new people. Okay. Those must be repeat positives!
6/25
10% positive of 25,117 = 2512 positives. There were 1009 New Cases so that means 1503 repeat positives...I'm thinking.
6/24
8% positive of 18,732 = 1499 positives. There were 1721 New Cases that day. Wait a minute. How did they get MORE new cases than positive test results?
Of course they are rounding percent positive to whole numbers (10% could be anywhere from 9.5 to 10.49%), but the numbers are way further off than that would indicate.
WHERE THE HECK do they get the % positive number every day?! I checked 6 dates and 2 of them have this bizarre backwards result. What is going on? They say they aren't including antibody tests, but how do you get MORE new reported cases than reported positives?
Since the "Positive Test Percentage" each day never seems to change once they announce it each day, I don't think they are using "New Cases by Specimen Date" as that changes with updates.
Any ideas?
Too bad they don't tell us how many specimens were actually taken on each day, as opposed to when they are reported, so two-three weeks later we could figure the real percentage of positive specimens each day...then subtract 3% for false positives and who knows how many for repeat positives.
The data, and the way it is presented, has been driving me crazy-cakes for months now.
Have you figured out how the heck NCDHHS gets their daily Positive Test Percentage?
I thought I had figured out how to find the number and percentage of repeat positives (same person tests over and over and over trying to get negatives to get back to work - often 6-12 times) using the data at the bottom of https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/about-data . "New Cases" is supposed to really be separate, new people, according to NCDHHS, but the number of positives and the percentage of positives is literally just positives and includes repeat positives.
It was working, I thought, then it made even less sense. I started looking two weeks ago so the data would be a little more settled.
6/26
10% positive of 21,697 tests = 2170 positives. There were 1635 New Cases. So that seems to indicate 535 more positives than new people. Okay. Those must be repeat positives!
6/25
10% positive of 25,117 = 2512 positives. There were 1009 New Cases so that means 1503 repeat positives...I'm thinking.
6/24
8% positive of 18,732 = 1499 positives. There were 1721 New Cases that day. Wait a minute. How did they get MORE new cases than positive test results?
Of course they are rounding percent positive to whole numbers (10% could be anywhere from 9.5 to 10.49%), but the numbers are way further off than that would indicate.
WHERE THE HECK do they get the % positive number every day?! I checked 6 dates and 2 of them have this bizarre backwards result. What is going on? They say they aren't including antibody tests, but how do you get MORE new reported cases than reported positives?
Since the "Positive Test Percentage" each day never seems to change once they announce it each day, I don't think they are using "New Cases by Specimen Date" as that changes with updates.
Any ideas?
Too bad they don't tell us how many specimens were actually taken on each day, as opposed to when they are reported, so two-three weeks later we could figure the real percentage of positive specimens each day...then subtract 3% for false positives and who knows how many for repeat positives.
Thank you!! I thought I was the only one struggling with this.
The data, and the way it is presented, has been driving me crazy-cakes for months now.
Have you figured out how the heck NCDHHS gets their daily Positive Test Percentage?
I thought I had figured out how to find the number and percentage of repeat positives (same person tests over and over and over trying to get negatives to get back to work - often 6-12 times) using the data at the bottom of https://covid19.ncdhhs.gov/dashboard/about-data . "New Cases" is supposed to really be separate, new people, according to NCDHHS, but the number of positives and the percentage of positives is literally just positives and includes repeat positives.
It was working, I thought, then it made even less sense. I started looking two weeks ago so the data would be a little more settled.
6/26
10% positive of 21,697 tests = 2170 positives. There were 1635 New Cases. So that seems to indicate 535 more positives than new people. Okay. Those must be repeat positives!
6/25
10% positive of 25,117 = 2512 positives. There were 1009 New Cases so that means 1503 repeat positives...I'm thinking.
6/24
8% positive of 18,732 = 1499 positives. There were 1721 New Cases that day. Wait a minute. How did they get MORE new cases than positive test results?
Of course they are rounding percent positive to whole numbers (10% could be anywhere from 9.5 to 10.49%), but the numbers are way further off than that would indicate.
WHERE THE HECK do they get the % positive number every day?! I checked 6 dates and 2 of them have this bizarre backwards result. What is going on? They say they aren't including antibody tests, but how do you get MORE new reported cases than reported positives?
Since the "Positive Test Percentage" each day never seems to change once they announce it each day, I don't think they are using "New Cases by Specimen Date" as that changes with updates.
Any ideas?
Too bad they don't tell us how many specimens were actually taken on each day, as opposed to when they are reported, so two-three weeks later we could figure the real percentage of positive specimens each day...then subtract 3% for false positives and who knows how many for repeat positives.
As best as I can tell, NC calculates that percent positive using only a subset of labs the submits data through the NC EDSS (electronic disease surveillance system). With the claim that this is the only way they can verify test results of both positive and negative tests are being returned on the same day. And other batch submissions or labs that do not return negative cases are not counted.
Of course they don't identify what the number of cases or positives are that go into this calculation. But based on their own FAQ, they are calculating this percentage based on about 60% of the total tests.
Now I would assume the tests being run and used in this calculation are heavily skewed towards hospital or ED setting and tests done outside the immediate healthcare setting are being thrown out for this calculation.
I would also assume the tests being thrown out have a much lower percentage of positives, since when we just take the basic numerator over denominator for ALL tests, it is general closer to 7%. But DHHS claims 8-10% on any given day.
Let's make a quick assumption that 60% (NC EDDS) of the cases are coming back at the 9% positive rate. In order to get an overall positive rate of 7%, we would need the remaining 40% (Other Labs not EDSS) cases to be about 4% positive.
Again, that is quick and dirty napkin math with rounded numbers. That is my best take on it given how questionable NC DHHS is with managing data.
Edit: Also want to qualify that I am making some heavy assumptions with this based on lack of official data.
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