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The graph of deaths provided by the NCDHHS is too jumpy to see trends.
Here is the latest for NC, shown as a 7-day rolling average. I stopped at July 1 since the data from the most recent two weeks will change. Earlier data changes too, but not by much.
We are still trending down, just slllooowwwlllyyy....
We could have gone the way of NY and NJ. They are essentially done! NC is living out the low and slow flattened curve vs. the spike up and down curve.
I was looking over some of Michael Levitt's modelling this morning and his models were picking up trends that I felt like I was seeing, just reviewing data. We will see if it holds up. In his models Meck and Triad (Guilford) had late June peaks of their most recent outbreaks and Wake was still on the upswing.
It makes sense if you break down the death data regionally. Especially with the recent burst in Wake, it is pretty evident of an outbreak.
It is a lot harder to see in the case reporting, especially since Meck is so much more aggressive in seeking out community cases. Given the relative state of the localized outbreaks and relative populations, you would think Wake would be pumping out more cases than Meck.
We will how far this Wake death trend pushes.
It is so hard to discern peaks and valleys in a relatively flat outbreak.
You are seriously contradicting yourself here. In your example, their size is immaterial, in mine it makes them not comparable.
Yet Australia has the land mass of the US but 10% of the population. Social distance anyone?
I don't see how I am. I brought up my Australian buddy, making fun of us (basically we are a bunch of cowboys who have failed when everyone thought we were too big to fail) as means to show a divergence of how we are different, mentality wise, than many other Western Democracies (remember you mentioned we aren't that different than Europe and I countered with health and mentality wise we are)
You then brought in the ....they're on an island and can shut themselves off from everyone...they're more like Hawaii.... example. (seemingly focused on COVID response)
My point was never about "socially distancing". It was always going back to your statement that we aren't "inherently different" when I would say we are quite, quite different. I mean if we want to boil it down to "politics", Democrats in this country would be closer to the "Conservative" party in every other major Western Democracy. (Politics as a proxy for "Mentality" if you will).
I was looking over some of Michael Levitt's modelling this morning and his models were picking up trends that I felt like I was seeing, just reviewing data. We will see if it holds up. In his models Meck and Triad (Guilford) had late June peaks of their most recent outbreaks and Wake was still on the upswing.
It makes sense if you break down the death data regionally. Especially with the recent burst in Wake, it is pretty evident of an outbreak.
It is a lot harder to see in the case reporting, especially since Meck is so much more aggressive in seeking out community cases. Given the relative state of the localized outbreaks and relative populations, you would think Wake would be pumping out more cases than Meck.
We will how far this Wake death trend pushes.
It is so hard to discern peaks and valleys in a relatively flat outbreak.
Yes, I was looking at Wake County earlier today and saw that we had been doing so well with deaths and then, starting in July, we have had 1-3 deaths almost every day. We have also had SEVEN nursing/care facility outbreaks in July. SEVEN. The latest report only shows 21 total nursing/care facility outbreaks in the county, so seven is a big chunk. As of yesterday's report, 35 of the county's 71 deaths were in nursing/care homes. I can't tell the ages of the other 36. They could mostly be elderly, as well?
Yes, I was looking at Wake County earlier today and saw that we had been doing so well with deaths and then, starting in July, we have had 1-3 deaths almost every day. We have also had SEVEN nursing/care facility outbreaks in July. SEVEN. The latest report only shows 21 total nursing/care facility outbreaks in the county, so seven is a big chunk. As of yesterday's report, 35 of the county's 71 deaths were in nursing/care homes. I can't tell the ages of the other 36. They could mostly be elderly, as well?
NC DHHS has county level stats. Unless the Congregate Report is lagging, I would say most of the recent deaths are not congregate. Wake as been at or above 30 congregate deaths for some time.
Wake deaths as of this morning DHHS update:
77 Total Deaths By Age:
75+: 47
65-74: 14
50-64: 10
25-49: 6
Yes, I was looking at Wake County earlier today and saw that we had been doing so well with deaths and then, starting in July, we have had 1-3 deaths almost every day. We have also had SEVEN nursing/care facility outbreaks in July. SEVEN. The latest report only shows 21 total nursing/care facility outbreaks in the county, so seven is a big chunk. As of yesterday's report, 35 of the county's 71 deaths were in nursing/care homes. I can't tell the ages of the other 36. They could mostly be elderly, as well?
My buddy's FiL was in a care facility here in WF and got released like 10 days before COVID got in there.
Thanks! Funny that level of detail isn't on the Wake County site?!
I don't know how Wake gets away with providing about the least amount of information of any county out there. Wake's dashboard is the worst for actual information.
I don't know how Wake gets away with providing about the least amount of information of any county out there. Wake's dashboard is the worst for actual information.
I don’t even bother looking at it anymore cause it’s so bad. I look up my zip code on DHHS (which only gives cases, no hospitalizations or deaths), and call it a day for anything more local than state.
Yet Australia has the land mass of the US but 10% of the population. Social distance anyone?
Population isn't distributed equally.
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