NY to Raleigh..Crazy Market, Crowded Schools..How Do I Do This? (Charlotte: for sale, rentals)

[nitrous12]

Some back story. Wife and I are growing tired of many different facets of living in Rochester NY. For as long as I have known her she said she would never move anywhere w/out family. I'm already a transplant from PA and I'm not nearly as tied to that idea. In the past year or so she has warmed up to the idea of finding the right place to move to regardless of who may be there.
A few weeks ago the conversation got pretty serious and her restrictions are loosening. Started to look at places I could stay with my company and move to and get equivalent job. She can work remote from anywhere.
Happened quick, but I found myself with an opportunity to do the same job with a promotion to a higher level and great pay raise in either Cary or Charlotte.
I spent some time in Raleigh 20 years ago and was left with a favorable impression of the area and had wanted to possibly move there out of college. We went down as a family 2 weeks ago...official offer for the job came in the day we got back and I had 3 days to respond.
I knew the housing market was very competitive, but not just how bad until we started talking to a realtor.
Also in the mix are our 8th and 9th (next school year) boys. The more my wife dug into the public schools the more horrified she became. We knew they were big, but not the over crowding, mobile trailer classrooms, capping of schools and transferring of students that can change even within the school year, etc. I would hate to.move these kids out of state, have them hopefully settle in and then 1/2 through the year or the next year get shipped out to another new school.
With the way the market is and the due diligence money i would need and not having our sale as a contingency, I would need to sell my current house first. Forces a rent situation, which means I need to feel confident I can rent where I could later buy so kids aren't moving schools based on our address change.
Oh and I'm working in the ~$500k range or less for a house. Typical 4 bed, 2500sq ft minimum deal.
Our initial interest was Cary, Apex, Holly Springs, Fuquay.
In the short amount of time we had to research we just couldn't get comfortable with all the risks of these unknown or volatile variables. Had to decline the offer...BUT...I am lucky enough to have the inside scoop that more jobs doing what I do are opening soon.
So I have more time to research this deeper and include a wider search and go back down as needed.

I've looked at Pittsboro, which seems to have a better situation for schools but no rentals and low house inventory.
Looked around Clayton and further south and east and get the impression housing is just as nuts and the wife isn't loving the sch[old around there. Rankings aren't great and while they say some of our desired high schools are capped they state they will take kids from addresses zoned to those schools, but not from outside.

I'm losing hope that I can make this work, but thought I would see if folks here can show me that either what I'm seeing is not as bad as it seems or maybe there is another approach...another area where my risk factors are minimized at least some?

Really a disappointing situation as the promotion i was offered is one I haven't been able to get where I am and I really started to get my heart set on moving to Raleigh. I wanted to do it out of college, but stayed where the job was and got stuck. Might have to wait until the empty nest years as moving with kids feels like a tough proposition.

Thanks in advance.

[TarHeelNick]

If your kids are about to be in high school; might be worth-while compromise to wait for them to graduate no?

The county-based school systems in this area tend to cause hesitation to a lot of people when that isn't what they are used to. FWIW most of my extended family is in the Rochester area (Pittsford, Henrietta, Fairport, etc) and cousins admittedly seemed to have what I would call a more "stable" school experience than myself and my siblings had growing up in WCPSS (granted that was the 90s/2000s). We all turned out OK; and your kids would only be here for high school which is far less open to the reassignment/far-assignment issues that often cause anxiety for parents of elementary-aged kiddos.

I wouldn't expect RE prices to be any lower here in the next 4 or 5 years when your kids will have graduated but I would like to think the insane competitiveness we have now will at have subsided.

[twingles]

Take a deep breath.

First of all, don't jump from the frying pan into the fire. Looking outside of Wake County (except for Chapel Hill) mean looking in more rural areas that are about to have the same problems as Wake does. And with a generally less educated population overall (I'll get pushback for saying that, but I'm not wrong - for the time being) you may not be happy with the schools even if they are smaller.

There are no kids that are getting ripped out of schools in the middle of the school year. As Nick said, far less likely in high school - and once kids are in 11th grade they (and sibs) can generally grandfather in. There are schools that use trailers (they're not terrrible, have some advantages) and modular buildings (if I blindfolded you and dropped you into one, you wouldn't know it).

Your bigger issue right now is finding housing and Nick is right - at this point perhaps it makes sense to wait till the kids are out of high school. But if you really want to move here NOW....I highly suggest targeting an area you want to live and RENT. I NEVER say that to people moving with kids but as you pointed out with the housing craziness right now, it's really for the best. I would even say plan on renting till the kids are out of HS so you don't have to worry about moving from one school to another if you move out of your high school's base zone. I am a HUGE proponent of moving and staying put, but in this market it just does not make sense.

An interstate move with kids is a tremendous undertaking, and having to do under time constraints while finding a house you want to buy in this market will only add to the stress. I know renting feels like a waste of money and I know moving twice sucks but I really think you will be happy you go that route when all is said and done. And if you hate the area where you end up, all you have to do is stick it out till the kids graduate and then buy. Buying a house now, and ending up hating the area because you purchased under pressure, would really stink. And frankly, if you did by chance get reassigned, well then you move to another rental in the original base zone. But I really don't expect you'd have a huge problem with that. As far as I know there is only one capped high school, Panther Creek. I could be wrong about that, not sure if the board has decided for next year or not anyway.

[poppydog]

Also, TONS of people are moving to Wake County and most seem very happy. They do it, so you can too if you want to.

[BoBromhal]

As a "lifelong" Triangle resident, product of a Durham public school almost 40 years ago, and with kids going through WCPSS right now ....

Finding a good school in Wake, Durham, Chapel Hill (even in Orange Co system), and probably even JoCo is NOT hard. However, I would strongly suggest that if your job is in Cary, then you be in WCPSS. And you be on the western side of the county.

There should be no reassignments - and there's NEVER been one mid-year. There are no NEW scheduled HS's in the next 5 years anyway, which would be your timeframe. There ARE 2 capped HS's to know about on the west side of Wake: Panther Creek and Apex Friendship. Your rising 8th would 95%+ likely get into one of these when they get to 9th, FWIW. If they didn't, they'd be going to an equally excellent HS. As soon as they got in, you could transfer the older one there. But let's get to my next post on housing ...

Your wife is panicking - somewhat understandably - but without real cause. Under above, your "worst case" scenario is a)you don't buy a house in PC/AF zone or b) your kids attend a high-quality school within 6 miles of those schools.

[farebluenc]

The redistricting is more frequent at the elementary level. I don't think there are any new high schools scheduled to be built in Wake County. I think the bigger issue is making sure to rent where you think you can purchase a house. There are houses in your price range if you are willing to purchase an older house.

I'd probably take the plunge if this is where you want to be. I don't think the housing prices will be cheaper if you wait.

[BoBromhal]

your issue is the housing.

No, you will not get an offer accepted contingent on the sales of your home, and likely not on the closing of your sale (ie, once you're under contract).

Your first step is to have your Realtor here put you in touch with a great lender, to see what your options are. That may mean you have to try and qualify for a "bridge" loan (as we commonly think of it, even though the term isn't used anymore).

But key to all this is understanding in our market, it is the Buyer (you) who has to take that risk, not the Seller (contingent offer) - there's too many other Buyers that don't have your contingency.

You might see what an iBuyer would pay you for your home. You should also get your Realtor to check into an outfit called Ribbon. Ribbon essentially buys your Wake Co home for you, while you sell your NY home. And that is a cash offer - which looks better than an offer including financing. If the stars align and you sell and close in NY before you close in Wake Co, then you pay a pretty reasonable fee (<1%) - and you'll likely have to pay over 2% above asking price anyway ...

[TarHeelNick]

Originally Posted by BoBromhal

your issue is the housing.

No, you will not get an offer accepted contingent on the sales of your home, and likely not on the closing of your sale (ie, once you're under contract).

Your first step is to have your Realtor here put you in touch with a great lender, to see what your options are. That may mean you have to try and qualify for a "bridge" loan (as we commonly think of it, even though the term isn't used anymore).

But key to all this is understanding in our market, it is the Buyer (you) who has to take that risk, not the Seller (contingent offer) - there's too many other Buyers that don't have your contingency.

You might see what an iBuyer would pay you for your home. You should also get your Realtor to check into an outfit called Ribbon. Ribbon essentially buys your Wake Co home for you, while you sell your NY home. And that is a cash offer - which looks better than an offer including financing. If the stars align and you sell and close in NY before you close in Wake Co, then you pay a pretty reasonable fee (<1%) - and you'll likely have to pay over 2% above asking price anyway ...

Oh yeah I missed the contingency part. That's a non-starter for sure.


From my understanding I-buyers haven't entered the market in Upstate NY yet (my uncle is a "big-leagues" home inspector in the area).

[BoBromhal]

the bad news is finding a house, and how our process works (the whole due diligence thing).

Right now, there's essentially 1 house in Cary/Morrisville/Apex for sale.

there have been 150 sell this year, at an average of 102% of list and a median 7 days on the market.

there's another 90 that are under contract, with a median of just 5 days on the market.

And I didn't even pull out those in the capped high schools.

So yes - you're jumping into the fire. And you will not be able to plan on scheduling a trip a week or 2 away and seeing anything for sale that hits the market "today".

So, IF you have a very low risk tolerance (and hey, for your wife that's likely), then yes you'd need to commit, sell there, and move to a rental here.

[paytonc]

Originally Posted by twingles

Take a deep breath.

Agreed -- seems like the stress of making too many decisions is getting to you.

Consider some other reasons to just rent for a spell:
1. Prices are such that renting honestly is the better deal, especially in western Wake. (I'm not sure how anyone breaks even renting a newish 4BR house for $2000, but that's the going rate.)
2. You can then move directly into an empty-nester house, and take your time planning that.
3. Rentals won't be the newest houses at the edge of sprawl, which is exactly where schools are most likely to redistrict.
4. Getting resettled and all is enough work; foist some of that onto a landlord.

Agreed that high schoolers are least exposed to redistricting -- high schools are a lot bigger (usually 2000+ students), so fewer of them are built, and new school openings spur broad redistricting. Looking ahead, the next WCPSS high school won't be built (in the Feltonville area) until 2025 or later, when your youngest won't be affected. (New high schools only open for 9th/10th graders and phase in.)

Having grown up in WCPSS with classes in trailers in most years, they're... okay? There are only a few at any given school; check Google Maps for proof.