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From the Triangle MLS. No real surprises, sales and inventory show similar year-over-year behavior as last month. Prices are starting to trend down across the board even if the pattern isn't yet 100% clear.
Triangle
Sales this down 24% compared to April 2007.
Year to date sales also down 24% versus the first 4 months of 2007
Active listings up 21% compared to this time last year.
Average price down 1.5% versus this time last year.
Wake County
Sales this month down 24% compared to April 2007
Sales year to date down 26% compared to the first 4 months of 2007
Active listings up 33% compared to April 2007
Median price down 6.6% from last April
Average price down about 1%, again compared to last April.
For the rest of the counties, sales are down 25% or so over last year. Inventory is up 5% in Durham, 17% in Johnston, and 23% in Orange compared to April of 2007. Wake is obviously leading the way in inventory increases here, but sales drops seem to be the same across the board.
In absolute numbers, sales this month were about the same a last month (up less than 2%), which means that the area continues on a pace that's about 25% lower than 2007. That puts it roughly on par with 2004 levels, plus or minus 5%.
Combine that with a significant increase in inventory compared to last year, and it means we have 7-9 months of inventory on hand, depending on how many months you average sales from. In any case, it's higher than the past several years and in buyers' market territory.
Median prices were down compared to April 2007 in Durham (-2.4%), Orange (-1.3%) and Wake (-6.6%). Median prices were up 3.3% in Johnston county compared to last year.
Wake County median prices have been negative year over year for 7 out of the last 8 months. Everyone else is bouncing around in the low single digits, with the exception of Orange County. They are all over the place, probably because so few homes are sold there per month (on the order of 100 per month).
Average prices were negative year over year in all counties except Johnston, which squeaked out a 0.4% gain. Orange County showed an 8.9% drop, everyone else was low single digits. Keep in mind that average price can be moved quite a bit by the mix of houses being sold in addition to price changes in general, so this might just be showing that lower range of home prices are selling better than they have in recent times. But in any case, this pushes prices back to late '06 values.
From these numbers, it looks like the spring selling season jumped a normal percentage above the dead time during the winter. The bad part is the quiet wintertime market this year was way below that of 2007. The end result is that sales are still way below the last several years' pace and inventory is continuing to climb. At least in Wake County, it looks like there have been some noticeable price concessions - without them, maybe prices would have been lower?
As someone who is waiting for the market to drop a bit more before buying, this is good news. Do you have any predictions for the future? I'm thinking late summer might be a good time to buy right before the school year starts.
Predictions are going to be based on what the general economy does, which makes it impossible to predict. If this downturn works like many of the previous ones, we'll get a few years of declining prices followed by quite a few years of no appreciation.
The thing to watch is the inventory numbers. As long as sales are slowing and inventory is building, there's going to be an oversupply of houses, which will drive prices down. Once the inventory starts to stabilize or go down on a year over year comparison, I'd start to pay closer attention to the market. It may not mean that price drops are over, but at least it'd be a hint.
But who really knows how this will play out? Inventory could stabilize and then mortgage rates start to go up, driving down prices even more. But then again, if you bought before that, your payment might have been lower even on a higher house. But on the 3rd hand, you could always put more money down and refinance on the lower price once rates came back down, and you'd be paying less in taxes to boot.
I'm with Sydney02, I read an article about Charlotte finally cracking and showing price declines. I'd expect the same here, builders are already adjusting, the resale market will take some time. I'd expect inventories to grow as we head into summer..
I just saw a change on the sign for Olde South homes at the entrance of our subdivision here in Holly Springs. They dropped their prices by 30k. Scary when resale homes are competing with new construction at the same price point.
Local real estate sales are so important around here. I saw one home nearby sell in less than five days, and another in less than two weeks, a third for sale by owner sold in less than 2 months.
Curious, I called the agent who listed the two that sold quickly and she said they sold for the asking price, and she had multiple offers. I don't pay so much attention to the stats because of the differences distance-wise in "Wake County" locations. Wake County is Ginormous!!
Yep, we sold our home close to asking price, and a bunch of houses are sold/under contract in our subdivision since Q1 of this year - many of them gone from 2 to 20 days. It really depends on the micro-local environment. Every single home is also different; if you have a house in great shape, priced accordingly, it will be snapped up very quickly around here.
Yes, things can certainly vary a lot from one neighborhood to another. Homes are selling in my neighborhood for about 3-4% more than they would have last year. They aren't getting snatched up quite as quickly as they did last year, but they are selling. Note that most of these homes are asking for $250K and less. The homes asking for $300K and up seem to be sitting for much longer.
Just keep in mind that "at asking" doesn't mean much unless you have something to compare to. I bet I could sell most any house in this area for a week at listing if I sold it for $100, but that doesn't say anything about the market. You've got to do what MrsSteel said and figure out how asking price lines up with previous prices for similar homes.
That being said, no argument that things can be considerably different based on location, price, and so on.
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Thanks for the update
