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I'm specifically referring to areas north of Durham and Wake County. Towns such as Roxboro, Butner, Creedmoor, Oxford, Franklinton, Kittrell, and Henderson.
It seems like areas south of the Triangle are growing faster than areas to the north. For example, Fuquay-Varina and Clayton are growing a lot more than Butner or Franklinton. When do you think the northern towns will be developed? Today, they're primarily rural and still quite small, but do you believe they'll be developed in the near future? Will the East End Connecter in Durham truly help these areas when it is finally finished?
Anyway, I'll just reiterate what I said there with a few modifications. I agree with Owen Wister about the schools, plus they'll need more amenities suburban residents in Durham and Wake counties have come to expect. This is particularly true regarding health and wellness and recreational facilities, where these towns are really lagging. And as for cultural amenities--forget it.
The East End Connector opening should help draw some new residents in theory to Butner and Creedmoor. Oxford is dubious because it's at least a half hour to Durham alone. And you've got to be kidding me about Henderson--it's 34 miles between the southernmost Henderson exit and the US 70 exit on I-85. But my gosh, the East End Connector is already years behind opening, and when it does, it won't really solve the transportation problem for these locations. Basically, they've got one major north-south 4-lane route, like 501 for Roxboro or US 1 in Franklinton, and nothing much going any other directions. And as I said in the previous posts, the only advantage you're going to have in these locations in terms of travel is saving 30-45 minutes drive time to Richmond, D.C., and by extension the northeast corridor, plus the mountains.
These areas likely will be developed eventually, but not in this decade. They'll be lagging behind unless there's an aggressive change in local leadership to stop doing things as they've always been and try giving newcomers more of what they want besides cheap land. If property costs were the only factor in deciding where to live, rural North Carolina towns would be booming right now, but they're not.
No time soon. There's nothing on the other side of Roxboro, Franklinton, etc.
The growth in small towns will be concentrated on the western part of the Triangle like Mebane and Pittsboro as well as continued growth south of Raleigh in Fuquay, Clayton, etc. Couples who live in Mebane might split a commute with one working in Greensboro and one working in RTP (30 min either way). There are a fair few couples with one in the military who like to live south of Raleigh and the soldier commutes to Fort Bragg. I think you will see continued growth towards Greensboro and Fayetteville.
I'd mentioned in the other thread that a lack of ample city water is a big problem to the north, as is the discontinuity created by Falls Lake.
Yes Jordan Lake is just now in the process of being leapfrogged, but from the north - as spillover from exclusionary Chapel Hill. (It's also absorbing a lot of the area's less-school-sensitive senior housing demand.) Durham and Wake Forest have plenty of room to run.
Another factor is that directionality matters a lot in growth patterns. At the intra-metro level, "favored quarters" accumulate privilege - jobs spur more jobs near them. At the metro scale, suburbs will sometimes spread towards growth poles even further out: growth south of Wake has surprising appeal to people commuting not just to Raleigh, but to Bragg/Pope or to industrial jobs along I-95.
There aren't any secondary growth poles to Raleigh's north. Henderson has some warehouse growth, but most of that growth is headed either further north (towards RVA/95) or west (towards Triad/77/40).
Quote:
Originally Posted by ozmoe571
try giving newcomers more of what they want besides cheap land. If property costs were the only factor in deciding where to live, rural North Carolina towns would be booming right now, but they're not.
Yeah, there's cheap land everywhere - it's just not that much of an attraction.
Ditto to the responses above. Franklinton has the best prospects for suburbinizing. It is a mere 9 miles from the booming Wake Forest. With the conversion of US 1 to a freeway almost to the Franklin County line, Franklinton is poised to grow.
I'm specifically referring to areas north of Durham and Wake County. Towns such as Roxboro, Butner, Creedmoor, Oxford, Franklinton, Kittrell, and Henderson.
It seems like areas south of the Triangle are growing faster than areas to the north. For example, Fuquay-Varina and Clayton are growing a lot more than Butner or Franklinton. When do you think the northern towns will be developed? Today, they're primarily rural and still quite small, but do you believe they'll be developed in the near future? Will the East End Connecter in Durham truly help these areas when it is finally finished?
First Wake County land needs to become way more scarce and expensive. Then the same needs to happen to Durham County, Orange County, Johnston County, etc.......
I'm specifically referring to areas north of Durham and Wake County. Towns such as Roxboro, Butner, Creedmoor, Oxford, Franklinton, Kittrell, and Henderson.
Do you live in one of these areas? Hoping to cash in on the boom going on now?
I had a friend just move from Holly Springs to the Roxboro area. He specifically moved there because it's not being overdeveloped. Due to the ridiculous mess that 55 has become, he told me that it will take him the same amount of time to get to the RTP from his new place as it did from his old (during the rush hours)
And maybe, just maybe, the folks that live up there don't want "more development"
.
Do you live in one of these areas? Hoping to cash in on the boom going on now?
I had a friend just move from Holly Springs to the Roxboro area. He specifically moved there because it's not being overdeveloped. Due to the ridiculous mess that 55 has become, he told me that it will take him the same amount of time to get to the RTP from his new place as it did from his old (during the rush hours)
And maybe, just maybe, the folks that live up there don't want "more development"
.
Granville County has asked to explore expansion of NC50 into Raleigh and been rebuffed. Someone wants more development.
But, sure, not everyone.
I can definitely empathize with someone who gets Holly Springs fatigue, but Roxboro seems to be a pretty dramatic relocation.
Proximity to a major highway or wide secondary roads will continue to limit growth in areas north of Wake county, as will watershed restrictions. Developers aren't going to rush into building new communities where they can only put one house on an acre of land, the financial yield wouldn't be as great.
And yet despite these obvious challenges, there's continued development in and around Creedmoor and land all around Highway 98.
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