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I have to say I am being massively tempted to cash out on my ITB home... particularly since we have an empty house in the family that the owner (my Father who is now living in ALF) refuses to sell/rent, and I see a once timid but no longer quite as shy Fed-approved recession heading our way (but of course my crystal ball is murky on the timing and severity).
The biggest thing stopping me is the historic pattern of housing in many areas of this country; certainly applicable to the triangle -- higher highs and higher lows. Even a plausible worst case scenario of a local 25% haircut ain't gonna mean much to long-time homeowners, other than a few sad, bitter tears over a tumbler of Jack...
But what is a contrarian to think when every brother, mother, and foreign investor is purportedly buying up every house 50k over asking in bidding wars? And the Wall Street Journal is telling us that 'Your home is your castle against rising inflation' ? It's hard not to have flashbacks to the regular fleecing of the american public going systematically from one arena to another... wash/rinse/repeat... for the benefit of our overlords...
We still have growth fundamentals on the table for decades -- with the market transitioning to town homes.and condos I don't feel growth for local owners is finished
The ABC11 article would be better if it focused on percentage growth, not dollars. It’s a lot more interesting to me if a zip code of average $300K homes is now selling for $500K than if a $600K zip is selling for $800K. But this sort of article treats those the same.
The ABC11 article would be better if it focused on percentage growth, not dollars. It’s a lot more interesting to me if a zip code of average $300K homes is now selling for $500K than if a $600K zip is selling for $800K. But this sort of article treats those the same.
Fair enough. But I posted that article more along the lines of my growing leeriness of the real estate market, even in the triangle, in support of my contrarian mindset which has served me well in the stock market... although I admit to a very limited knowledge of the real estate market as houses I have purchased were only generally considered as investments-- more as a home I wanted to live in.
But now, I gotta wonder; is all this pumping of the real estate water level unnaturally rapid? Have entities been dumping before a coming recession? I'm leaning that way.
Again, I dunno. The stock market close was quite ugly today... more to come.
Perhaps I should have posted this in another forum, I just wondered what triangle people are making of the local real estate market. No spidey-sense tingling? Happy and complacent for the long term?
Depends on the types of homes they're talking about too. I'm house hunting and seeing prices starting to go down. There is a lot of trash on the market and I think there's a lot of drive to dump properties that were otherwise low profit/unsellable before the sobriety hits. Isn't it really the money's value and not really the home that is dictating the prices? The only people I can think of that are insulated and can take advantage are the all-cash buyers, but if they're buying as an investment, they'll slow down too. Places are reporting thats already happening. I dunno. I'm no economisticologistmatron.
I dont think this is a bubble like 2008. The homes aren't being bought with shady loans. This is a supply and demand issue. Eventually there will either be enough houses for sale, fewer people buying, or a combination of both.
I certainly wouldn't be scared or worried about the market right now if I had a house for sale, it's almost a no brainer if you have a spare house sitting around and don't need to worry about where you will buy next.
Depends on the types of homes they're talking about too. I'm house hunting and seeing prices starting to go down. There is a lot of trash on the market and I think there's a lot of drive to dump properties that were otherwise low profit/unsellable before the sobriety hits. Isn't it really the money's value and not really the home that is dictating the prices? The only people I can think of that are insulated and can take advantage are the all-cash buyers, but if they're buying as an investment, they'll slow down too. Places are reporting thats already happening. I dunno. I'm no economisticologistmatron.
For the first time in a while I've seen some substantial price cuts in my area the last few weeks ($50k on houses in the $800k range). I think that has more to do with those sellers pricing aspirationally high and having to adjust down to a "new normal" price.
I dont think this is a bubble like 2008. The homes aren't being bought with shady loans. This is a supply and demand issue. Eventually there will either be enough houses for sale, fewer people buying, or a combination of both.
I certainly wouldn't be scared or worried about the market right now if I had a house for sale, it's almost a no brainer if you have a spare house sitting around and don't need to worry about where you will buy next.
This. What we are seeing is a supply and demand problem right now. This is not the same as 2008.
I think that a clearer story could be told if we were comparing apples to apples. For example, in 27601, a lot of these higher price houses are fundamentally, newer, more luxurious, and larger than the average house that was being sold 10 years ago. Looking at prices of the same sort of house in the same sort of condition, in the same sort of location paints a clearer story. Without doubt those prices have gone up, but by how much across the city?
If I look at my mother's house in 27615, I know that it's worth ~$125,000 more than just 5 years ago, but it's not worth $220K more as the average might suggest it should be. I'm sure that she'd like it to be if anyone is foolish enough to give her an extra 95 grand. Now I'm not saying that $125K isn't a lot of value growth in five years: it certainly is. I'm just saying that I'd like to see more apples to apples comparisons.
We are probably at the height of the market. Prices could still creep up further, but cashing out now ain’t a bad idea.
I personally think the biggest downturn could be mid level higher end homes. People who paid 1.2 million could find their house worth 900k in 3-4 years if a major recession hits. It won’t be anything like 2008 crash as there’s too much wealth and cash buyers in this market.
The 500k -700k is probably the most stable market as that’s where a lot of upper middle class families are.
I’m in 27703 zip code, average Lennar track subdivision. My neighbor bought his house in 2018 for 315k, and he just sold it for 600k.
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